MO Gov Galloway in
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  MO Gov Galloway in
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Author Topic: MO Gov Galloway in  (Read 10677 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #100 on: September 22, 2019, 07:02:41 PM »
« edited: September 22, 2019, 07:06:59 PM by IceSpear »

Icespear werent you one of those that said Bevin was gonna win, well he isnt winning, Beshear is

We'll see about that, OC. You owe me a drink at your house in Lake Michigan when Bevin wins.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #101 on: September 22, 2019, 07:45:33 PM »

Galloway is a good candidate, but it's hard to see her beating a noncontroversial generic R like Parson in blood red MO at the same time Trump is landsliding in the state.

Not to mention she barely cracked 50% against one of the worst candidates that was a literal fraud and had literally no money despite it being a D+9 Democratic wave year. Still impressive by Missouri Democrat standards no doubt, but I don't see how she wins unless Parson becomes super unpopular and/or scandaled. The real question is the margin.

All this is true and I have thought over it a lot but to Galloway's credit and defense:

1) The Senate race very much over shadowed the Auditors race. Sort of a shame as it is elected in midterms in theory to be a check on the executive branch. But few people knew anything of Saundra McDowell or who she was. They just saw the (R) next to her name.

2) 2018 was a D+9 year yes but we did have somewhat of a counter wave and we can not always expect that in future elections.

3) Now instead of being appointed to an office by an unpopular governor that was held by a Republican who died by suicide, Galloway now won re-election in her own right and that does bring some good will.

4) Galloway never had a contested office until last year.. and in a stand alone race she would have likely won by a larger margin.

so overall I think she will only lose by a few points next year but at least we know Parson likely won't landslide now!
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #102 on: September 23, 2019, 02:09:12 AM »

It will be interesting to see which county has a largest drop from Trump % of vote to Parson % of vote.

Maybe Greene? Maybe Platte?

Jefferson county, probably. It has a lot of socially conservative Democrats who could still vote D outside of the presidential race.

But it won’t really matter, Galloway is heading for a +15 points defeat anyway.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #103 on: September 23, 2019, 02:10:59 AM »

She will do around what McCaskill did.

She will likely do worse

1. 2020 likely won’t be a D+9 year
2. Contrary to McCaskill, Galloway won’t have $40M to spend
3. Parson is a popular incumbent
4. Running on abortion is not a winning issue in MO
5. Trump will likely carry this state by +15 and will provide coattails to other conservative candidates

It is dumb to campaign solely on abortion in  Missouri but even Mississippi rejected a life at conception amendment, Considering Missouri is more liberal than MS going against hardcore abortion bans can work.

It worked pretty well for Wendy Davis....

Are we talking about the same Missouri that re-elected Claire McCaskill by 16% because of her oponent’s extreme stance on abortion?

The logical conclusion of Todd Akins comments is that
Quote
"anyone on trial for rape in criminal court should automatically be acquitted if it can be determined that the sexual intercourse resulted in a pregnancy".
That is far away from even the usual conservative position on the issue which is that
Quote
"the rapists crimes are their own and its unfair to punish the unborn child too for said crimes".

Anyways, Tilt D, assuming a recession occurs.

What are you smoking ?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #104 on: September 23, 2019, 10:41:37 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2019, 11:29:03 AM by Cory Booker »

It will be interesting to see which county has a largest drop from Trump % of vote to Parson % of vote.

Maybe Greene? Maybe Platte?

Jefferson county, probably. It has a lot of socially conservative Democrats who could still vote D outside of the presidential race.

But it won’t really matter, Galloway is heading for a +15 points defeat anyway.

Galloway isnt headed for a 15 point defeat, maybe 6. All eyes are on KY-Gov, if Beshear can win, then there maybe cracks in red wall
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Pollster
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« Reply #105 on: January 21, 2020, 01:08:49 PM »

A Greitens comeback? Supporters of the ex-Missouri governor are hopeful
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #106 on: January 21, 2020, 01:12:41 PM »

It will be interesting to see which county has a largest drop from Trump % of vote to Parson % of vote.

Maybe Greene? Maybe Platte?

Jefferson county, probably. It has a lot of socially conservative Democrats who could still vote D outside of the presidential race.

But it won’t really matter, Galloway is heading for a +15 points defeat anyway.

Galloway isnt headed for a 15 point defeat, maybe 6. All eyes are on KY-Gov, if Beshear can win, then there maybe cracks in red wall
Is Parson as damaged and hated as Bevin though? Bevin lost by such a small margin despite how unpopular he was, so I don't think MO is going to be any better.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #107 on: January 21, 2020, 08:37:08 PM »


Greitens is a loser.

Parson can lose if Democrats put MO deeply in play....
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #108 on: January 21, 2020, 09:36:43 PM »

Dems best chance for pickups are Vermont and New Hampshire, due to minimum wage Bill being passed in New Hampshire and Sununu vetoing it makes him vulnerable
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #109 on: January 23, 2020, 10:08:59 PM »

Morning Consult has Parsons at 49 approve, 25 disapprove and he's at +19 with independents. I imagine picking someone with a very low profile was part of his appeal after Erotic Eric.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #110 on: January 24, 2020, 10:44:25 AM »

It will be interesting to see which county has a largest drop from Trump % of vote to Parson % of vote.

Maybe Greene? Maybe Platte?

Jefferson county, probably. It has a lot of socially conservative Democrats who could still vote D outside of the presidential race.

But it won’t really matter, Galloway is heading for a +15 points defeat anyway.
If John Gregg could hold himself to a mere 6% loss while Trump won Indiana by almost 20%, Galloway could likely do just as well.

She has a 1-5% chance of winning, obviously, but I could see her getting a mid-single digit percentage loss.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #111 on: January 24, 2020, 10:44:45 PM »

Safe R
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #112 on: January 24, 2020, 10:55:47 PM »

Morning Consult has Parsons at 49 approve, 25 disapprove and he's at +19 with independents. I imagine picking someone with a very low profile was part of his appeal after Erotic Eric.

This would probably be a barn burner of a race had Greitens stayed on. Galloway might even be leading. But Parson is just too popular.
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