What Did LePage Do That Moody Didn't?

[Free Bird]

I was looking over ME-Gov 2014 numbers versus 2018 and noticed a few interesting things. First, only about 19,000 more votes were cast than in 2014, and Hayes only received about 3-4% less than Cutler did. This means that there are plenty of LePage/Mills voters, especially in places like Waldo, Lincoln, Hancock, York, Franklin, and Kennebec, among others.

So, what did Paul LePage do that Shawn Moody didn't from a strategic perspective? Or was it just Maine's elastic, anti-White House party nature?

[Ishan]

Have someone split the democrat.

[Skye]

Not run in a Democratic wave year.

TBH, I'm not really sure why LePage won the way he did. Everyone agreed that the race was, at best, a Tossup, or that Michaud was a slight favorite. His 48% still baffles me today.

[Ses]

Have someone split the democrat.

This. No Cutler-Mitchell or Michaud-Cutler split.

[Xing]

Run in Republican wave years with Culter on the ballot.

[Free Bird]

To those pointing the finger at Cutler, I will repeat that Hayes only performed 4% worse than Cutler. Give that percentage to Michaud and he still loses.

[morgieb]

To those pointing the finger at Cutler, I will repeat that Hayes only performed 4% worse than Cutler. Give that percentage to Michaud and he still loses.

One year was a Republican one, the other one a Democratic one. Incumbency may have helped too.

[GoldenMainer]

Some of my thoughts on the factors that helped Mills and hurt Michaud:

- Not only was 2018 a wave year but there was a strong Dem candidate running for ME-02 in Golden. In 2014, Michaud had Emily Cain running in ME-02. While Poliquin's totals stayed about the same from 2014 to 2018, Golden increased Cain's total by almost 14,000 in the first round and 21,000 after ranked-choice voting. I think Golden & Mills were a great team as they were more down-to-earth candidates and both had connections to Franklin & Androscoggin counties.

- There weren't any controversial ballot measures to drive up Republican turnout in 2018. 2018 just had college & infrastructure bonds in addition to one homecare tax initiative that had weak support. In 2014, there was a controversial bear trapping measure on the ballot that likely brought more hunters to the polls.

- There's always the chance Susan Collins being up for re-election gave Lepage some coattails to hop onto in 2014. With her moderate image (at the time), her going around the state with him didn't hurt. In 2018, popular Angus King was up for re-election and the Republican candidate Eric Brakey looked like a pedophile and danced in a speedo in a video.

- There's always the chance that Michaud coming out hurt him in the more socially conservative areas of northern Maine. If you look at the map of the 2012 same-sex marriage referendum, all of the northern counties voted no.

- As a former prosecutor and district attorney, Mills had some "tough on crime" cred.

 - Janet's brother Peter Mills is a well-known Republican in the state (former state senator and ran for governor twice). He's more of a moderate and likely helped her out a bit.

- Lepage's tough unpolished nature likely helped him with independents (Trump did very well here in the general and Bernie did well in the primary and they also have that unpolished tough way of speaking). I thought Moody would be a strong candidate but to me, he came across sleepy and weak.