Which of these governorships could flip in a Trump 2022 midterm?

[wesmoorenerd]

If your answer for any of these is contingent on retirements or specific candidates jumping in, please specify in the replies down below.

[Roll Roons]

Arizona, Maryland and Georgia are the big ones. Massachusetts probably will if it's open, but it won't if Baker runs again. Same with Vermont, New Hampshire and possibly Texas. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp's going down.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Oops, forgot to vote for Arizona. That would almost definitely flip in a Trump midterm with no incumbent.

[Frenchrepublican]

KS, AZ, MD, MA and VT if open races

[Frenchrepublican]

And no, FL is not flipping to dems

[Frenchrepublican]

CO: Safe D
KS: tossup
ME: Safe D 
MI: Likely D
MN: Safe D
NM: Safe D
NV: Likely D
PA: Lean D
WI: Lean D
AZ: Tilt D
FL: Likely R
GA: Lean R
IA: Lean R if open
MA: Safe R/Safe D without Baker
MD: Safe D
NH: Lean R/Lean D if open
OH: Safe R
TX: Safe R
VT: Likely R/Safe D if open

[Mr. Smith]

AOTR ones, except Ohio and Texas.

No, not even DeSantis is safe. It'd be a serious lift and FL Dems will probably figure out a way to f&*k it up, but it's not some kind of unimaginable outcome either.

[Rookie Yinzer]

GA: Lean R

Lean D. No group has to move toward the Dems in 2022 at all and they would still win without a run-off. Kemp is not getting re-elected unless we run a trash candidate (it's going to be our best candidate though ) so #OneTermKemp

[Mr. Smith]

GA: Lean R

Lean D. No group has to move toward the Dems in 2022 at all and they would still win without a run-off. Kemp is not getting re-elected unless we run a trash candidate (it's going to be our best candidate though ) so #OneTermKemp

Let's not go too far, John Barrow isn't around to make sure there isn't some uh, shenanigans with the voter rolls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA with Scholten and AZ

[😥]

CO: Safe D
KS: Lean D
ME: Safe D 
MI: Likely D
MN: Safe D
NM: Safe D
NV: Likely D
PA: Likely D
WI: Lean D
AZ: Lean D (flip)
FL: Lean R
GA: Tossup/Tilt D (flip)
IA: Lean D (open, flip)/Lean R (with Reynolds)
MA: Safe D (open, flip)/Safe R (with Baker)
MD: Safe D (flip)
NH: Likely D (open, flip)/Tossup\Tilt R (with Sununu)
OH: Lean R
TX: Tossup\Tilt R (open)/Safe R (with Abott)
VT: Safe D (open, flip)/Lean R (with Scott)

[Politician]

Assumes Baker runs for re-election.

[😥]

Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could flip to R. Maryland will Flip D no matter who the president is.

Are you serious? Pennsylvania could flip in second Trump midterm? PA probably will not flip in Democrat midterm. You prediction of Trump 2 midterm is more like prediction if 2022 will be unpopular Democratic President midterm

[S019]

KS to R’s
I believe that Kelly’s win was a fluke caused by a terrible nominee, and this should flip, if the nominee is decent


AZ, FL, GA, MD, NH, TX to D’s

I’m iffy on FL and NH, the rest should flip, yes even TX, because of Dan Patrick (think Abbott retires)

[Frenchrepublican]

Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could flip to R. Maryland will Flip D no matter who the president is.

Are you serious? Pennsylvania could flip in second Trump midterm? PA probably will not flip in Democrat midterm. You prediction of Trump 2 midterm is more like prediction if 2022 will be unpopular Democratic President midterm

Wolf is very moderate compared to most Democrats. It depends on who the nominees are. Incumbent Tom Wolf will be term limited by 2022. If somebody like Wolf is the nominee it will likely be a Democratic hold. If not, the state is a tossup.

Outside of energy issues, Wolf is not exactly a moderate 

[Orser67]

KS, PA, and all of the Republican-held seats listed here except OH (unless DeWine retires)