When will the divided government of the United States end? (user search)
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  When will the divided government of the United States end? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Select which year and party will have a trifecta next
#1
2020 (GOP Trifecta)
 
#2
2020 (DEM Trifecta)
 
#3
2022 (GOP Trifecta)
 
#4
2022 (DEM Trifecta)
 
#5
2024 (GOP Trifecta)
 
#6
2024 (DEM Trifecta)
 
#7
2026 (GOP Trifecta)
 
#8
2026 (DEM Trifecta)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 58

Author Topic: When will the divided government of the United States end?  (Read 18893 times)
TheRealRight
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Posts: 18
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« on: June 21, 2019, 10:46:25 PM »

When do you all expect the current divided government to end? Which party will have full control of the federal government and when?

I do not expect trifectas of any kind until 2024 at the earliest no matter who wins the presidency in 2020.
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TheRealRight
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Posts: 18
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2019, 10:32:42 PM »

2020 is an uphill climb for both sides. Republicans are not favored to take back the House, Democrats have a tough road to a senate majority.

2024 only if Trump is reelected. Democrats would keep the House and most likely take back the senate in 2022. In 2024, a Democratic president will get elected. If Trump loses 2020, the Democrats might win back the senate, but it's more likely they don't. If they don't, divided government probably lasts at least to the 2028 cycle, because a Democratic president (or Biden's vice president if he is #46 and retires after one term) is still favored to win 2024 (especially due to demographic trends).

The bigger question is whether any trifecta will last longer than two years?

The Republican Trifecta lasted longer than two years under Bush.
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TheRealRight
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Posts: 18
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2019, 10:34:37 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2019, 10:38:28 PM by TheRealRight »

It all comes down to who wins the 2020 Presidential election. If Trump wins again the next trifecta will be a Democratic trifecta in 2025. If Trump loses the next trifecta will be a Republican trifecta and the Democratic president will have a divided government for their entire term.

Timeline if Trump Wins:
2020: Divided Government - Republican President - Republican Senate - Democratic House
2022: Divided Government - Republican President - Democratic Senate - Democratic House
2024: Democratic Trifecta - Democratic President - Democratic Senate - Democratic House

Timeline if a Democrat Wins(Serves only one term):
2020: Divided Government - Democratic President - Republican Senate - Democratic House
2022: Divided Government - Democratic President - Democratic Senate - Republican House
2024: Republican Trifecta - Republican President - Republican Senate - Republican House
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TheRealRight
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Posts: 18
United States


« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2019, 11:40:01 PM »

2020 Dem Trifecta will last until 2024

That's not realistic. A trifecta of any kind that is a result of the 2020 elections would be an upset. Republicans will hold the Senate until 2022.
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TheRealRight
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Posts: 18
United States


« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2019, 10:07:36 PM »

If Trump reelected, D trifecta in 2024
If Trump loses, R trifecta in 2032, because if Biden will serve two terms, than his VP will serve one term as President and if Biden will serve one term, than his VP will serve two terms

That's only about the president. What do you think will happen to the legislature if Biden becomes president? Usually the legislature is the opposite party of the president after that presidents first midterm.
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