How much will Trump win Michigan by in 2020?

[SN2903]

I see Trump's margin expanding in MI not shrinking. He won't lose Oakland by 9 next time. I can see him getting it down to 5-7. He will win Macomb by similar margins as last time. I see a 2-4 point win.

[TML]

Ask Governor Bill Schuette what he thinks.

[Pericles]

Lol this is stupid to have such a leading thread question and poll options. Trump could win Michigan again, but he probably won't, though I think it's a relatively close loss (mid to low single digits), not a double-digit blowout like some polls (polls could easily underrate him in MI again but I doubt the error will be enough for him to win).

[Hammy]

Someone sticky this or something so we can come back to it in 17 months and laugh.

[pbrower2a]

High-single-digit win for the Democrat.

Trump is wildly unpopular in Michigan; the state elected Democrats as Governor and Secretary of State; voters voted a decisive majority in total for Democrats in the House election; Democrats have already tightened security on their voter-outreach program. The only positive for President Trump is that he won in 2016.

Michigan is de-industrializing so fast that agriculture is by default approaching the status of the #1 industry in Michigan -- which would ordinarily be good for Republicans -- except that Trump's trade war is hurting Michigan farmers and vintners. (If you did not know, Michigan has is of the biggest wine-producing states in America, and the wine is pretty good).

Donald Trump used to be little known in Michigan, but he now reminds one of the loud, crude relative you never invited to visit until you thought he would grow up by age 60 but who fails to get the message of either cleaning up his act or leaving. He reminds me of the fellow who bragged about buying stolen tires in the presence of someone who lost a car to outright auto theft and someone whose car was broken into for the radio. And I am thinking of the auto insurance rates being higher because of people like that.  Or he brags about his porno collection. -- or how drunk he got in Chicago.

[Frenchrepublican]

It’s fairly likely that he loses MI by 3 to 5

Considering Oakland county, yeah he won’t lose it by 9.....he will lose it by 19

[Epaminondas]

I'm rather grateful for these types of posts, and hope they continue until next November. They keep us on our toes.

Dems need a constant reminder that the cult will come out to vote in 2020, come hell or high water.

LOCK COMPLACENCY UP. LOCK COMPLACENCY UP.

(But of course Trump will lose Michigan: overall turnout was -250k from 2008 and Clinton earned 300k less than Obama 2012, that's the real story)

[Ilhan Apologist]

The overconfidence of this post is laughable, but so is the overconfidence in the replies.

[Podgy the Bear]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

[KaiserDave]

I agree, and I think Rhode Island will be close too. It is rapidly swinging R, and Trump will increase his margins rapidly. He loses it by 3-4, honestly wouldn't surprise me if he won it against a weak candidate like Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris.

[andjey]

Ask Governor Bill Schuette what he thinks.

Yeah, and Senator John James

[tagimaucia]

It seems worth noting that Macomb moved something like 6 points to the left from 2016 to 2018 *relative* to the overall swing of the state.

[🥥🌴]

There's still room to expand in Michigan. Around 2 points i guess.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

It’s not funny. Comparing Trump to Hitler is disgusting

[AN63093]

Just depends on turnout.  Unlike PA, MI actually was a state that can almost entirely be explained by turnout.  Clinton lost about 76k votes in Detroit and though Trump gained some on Romney, even if you assume every new vote he got was a Obama-Trump voter, that still leaves a shortfall of over 60k votes.

If turnout was just a little bit up, the margin (which is already razor thin) goes away very quickly.  It wouldn't even need to go back to '08 levels, '12 would be easily enough.  This is true even if Trump managed to hold some of his flips like Saginaw and Macomb.

For Trump to win again, which is certainly possible, turnout probably has to be down.  In a high turnout election, I'm not sure what his path is, even if he manages to expand the margin in Macomb, because there just aren't enough votes there to outweigh Wayne.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

It’s not funny. Comparing Trump to Hitler is disgusting

I think that was more comparing Hitler's delusions of winning the war to OP's delusion that Michigan is going to vote for Trump by 2-4 points, rather than directly comparing Trump to Hitler in any way.

[Gracile]

He'll win by -2.5% if I had to guess today.

[Podgy the Bear]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

It’s not funny. Comparing Trump to Hitler is disgusting

I think that was more comparing Hitler's delusions of winning the war to OP's delusion that Michigan is going to vote for Trump by 2-4 points, rather than directly comparing Trump to Hitler in any way.

Exactly.  Any Trumpista who thought this was a reference to Hitler needs to chill.

[Woody]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

Hitler knew that everything was over by then, there is a lot of misconseptions about Hitler in general besides the laughable assertions that he was an incompetent buffoon (most likely stemming from German generals who placed their mistakes/military failures on Hitler). Infact, contrary to common belief, he was a brilliant strategist and one of the smartest tacticians in the 20-century, starting from his rise to the position of the fuhrer, to his millitary victories in the West and East, only to be stopped from the sheer strength of the allies.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

Hitler knew that everything was over by then, there is a lot of misconseptions about Hitler in general besides the laughable assertions that he was an incompetent buffoon (most likely stemming from German generals who placed their mistakes/military failures on Hitler). Infact, contrary to common belief, he was a brilliant strategist and one of the smartest tacticians in the 20-century, starting from his rise to the position of the fuhrer, to his millitary victories in the West and East, only to be stopped from the sheer strength of the allies.

This makes me feel uneasy, coming from you.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Trump loses by 4 to wins by .70

[Frenchrepublican]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

Hitler knew that everything was over by then, there is a lot of misconseptions about Hitler in general besides the laughable assertions that he was an incompetent buffoon (most likely stemming from German generals who placed their mistakes/military failures on Hitler). Infact, contrary to common belief, he was a brilliant strategist and one of the smartest tacticians in the 20-century, starting from his rise to the position of the fuhrer, to his millitary victories in the West and East, only to be stopped from the sheer strength of the allies.

Yeah, opening a second front in the east while Britain was still standing was very smart

[Ilhan Apologist]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

Hitler knew that everything was over by then, there is a lot of misconseptions about Hitler in general besides the laughable assertions that he was an incompetent buffoon (most likely stemming from German generals who placed their mistakes/military failures on Hitler). Infact, contrary to common belief, he was a brilliant strategist and one of the smartest tacticians in the 20-century, starting from his rise to the position of the fuhrer, to his millitary victories in the West and East, only to be stopped from the sheer strength of the allies.

Are you just a parody of yourself?

[Frenchrepublican]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

It’s not funny. Comparing Trump to Hitler is disgusting

I think that was more comparing Hitler's delusions of winning the war to OP's delusion that Michigan is going to vote for Trump by 2-4 points, rather than directly comparing Trump to Hitler in any way.

Exactly.  Any Trumpista who thought this was a reference to Hitler needs to chill.

Don’t take it bad, guy, but a PPP poll from a few years ago showed that half of dems saw Trump as as much bad or even worse than Hitler and just today AOC compared immigrants detention centers to death camps

[pbrower2a]

It's Hitler in mid-April 1945 thinking that he was going to win the war.

It’s not funny. Comparing Trump to Hitler is disgusting

I think that was more comparing Hitler's delusions of winning the war to OP's delusion that Michigan is going to vote for Trump by 2-4 points, rather than directly comparing Trump to Hitler in any way.

Exactly.  Any Trumpista who thought this was a reference to Hitler needs to chill.

It's more like Nguyen Van Thieu thinking that his regime (the Republic of Vietnam) had any viability in April 1975.