KY Gov-Gravis:: Bevin 48% - Beshear 42%

[junior chįmp]

#nohope #polorazation #onlygenericDcanwin

For the Gubernatorial race, Matt Bevin currently leads Andy Beshear 48%-42%.  Beshear does considerably better with college educated voters (trailing 51%-49% among those with a bachelor’s degree and leading 55%-32% among those with a post-graduate education).  The problem for Beshear is that there just aren’t many those voters in Kentucky.  Bevin holds a 53%-32% lead among voters with a high school diploma and 51%-40% among those with “some college” education.  38% of the sample has a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 62% without.  The gender gap is evident as well with Beshear leading 47%-40% among women and trailing Bevin 57%-37% among men.

http://www.gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/2019-gravis-marketing-kentucky-poll

[Politician]

This is like porn for IceSpear.

[libertpaulian]

gRaViS

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks correct.

[TML]

Well, it seems like people who said that Beshear's campaign resembles that of Conway's back in 2015 definitely have a point...

[DaWN]

Yeah If Beshear can't even lead in a poll that only has Trump up by 20 and McConnell up by 8 then he's screwed

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The neolibs were right about Appalachia. Sorry I ever defended the region.

[Xing]

Yeah, but Bevin's unpopularity is totally more important than Kentucky's political leanings, and polls showing "Generic D" beating Bevin were totally more accurate...

[All Along The Watchtower]

The neolibs were right about Appalachia. Sorry I ever defended the region.

What?

[SnowLabrador]

I'm telling you, Trump's support for Bevin is working wonders. I think Bevin wins 54-44 or so.

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah If Beshear can't even lead in a poll that only has Trump up by 20 and McConnell up by 8 then he's screwed

Also my opinion, I have a hard time believing that Trump is only up by 20 in KY, even Romney did better than that

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Yeah If Beshear can't even lead in a poll that only has Trump up by 20 and McConnell up by 8 then he's screwed

Also my opinion, I have a hard time believing that Trump is only up by 20 in KY, even Romney did better than that

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

[DaWN]

Yeah If Beshear can't even lead in a poll that only has Trump up by 20 and McConnell up by 8 then he's screwed

Also my opinion, I have a hard time believing that Trump is only up by 20 in KY, even Romney did better than that

Yes, that's precisely my point. If Beshear can't lead in a poll that's almost certainly underrating GOP support, then he's finished.

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah If Beshear can't even lead in a poll that only has Trump up by 20 and McConnell up by 8 then he's screwed

Also my opinion, I have a hard time believing that Trump is only up by 20 in KY, even Romney did better than that

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

I know, generally speaking polls tend to underestimate republicans in the states along the Ohio river (IN/OH/KY) the same way they underestimate democrats in western states like NV/CA/AZ

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

Gov. Kobach, Sen. Morrisey, Sen. Rosendale, and Gov. Vitter agree.

Trump is leading Warren and Buttgieg by 32 points in this poll, which is definitely believable. I don’t think they’re underrating GOP support, and Biden trailing by "only" 20 points in KY isn’t that implausible considering his double-digit lead over Trump nationally.

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah If Beshear can't even lead in a poll that only has Trump up by 20 and McConnell up by 8 then he's screwed

Also my opinion, I have a hard time believing that Trump is only up by 20 in KY, even Romney did better than that

Yes, that's precisely my point. If Beshear can't lead in a poll that's almost certainly underrating GOP support, then he's finished.

Exactly. Now it’s just one poll and I remain careful about what polls tell me. Bevin is favoured but he remains vulnerable, as of now I would rate the race as lean R

[Frenchrepublican]

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

Gov. Kobach, Sen. Morrisey, Sen. Rosendale, and Gov. Vitter agree.

Trump is leading Warren and Buttgieg by 32 points in this poll, which is definitely believable. I don’t think they’re underrating GOP support, and Biden trailing by "only" 20 points in KY isn’t that implausible considering his double-digit lead over Trump nationally.

It’s not really about red states, but polls underestimate frequently republican candidates in states along the Ohio River, just look at OH gov 2018, IN Sen 2018, IN gov 2016, IN Sen 2016, KY gov 2015.... polls greatly overestimated dems candidates

[Politician]

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

Gov. Kobach, Sen. Morrisey, Sen. Rosendale, and Gov. Vitter agree.

Trump is leading Warren and Buttgieg by 32 points in this poll, which is definitely believable. I don’t think they’re underrating GOP support, and Biden trailing by "only" 20 points in KY isn’t that implausible considering his double-digit lead over Trump nationally.

It’s not really about red states, but polls underestimate frequently republican candidates in states along the Ohio River, just look at OH gov 2018, IN Sen 2018, IN gov 2016, IN Sen 2016, KY gov 2015.... polls greatly overestimated dems candidates

Why is this the case? In WI/MI/PA polls were pretty accurate in 2018, it just seems to be OH/IN/KY/WV/MO that are problematic (and IN isn't even ancestrally D)

[History505]

Looks correct.

[Frenchrepublican]

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

Gov. Kobach, Sen. Morrisey, Sen. Rosendale, and Gov. Vitter agree.

Trump is leading Warren and Buttgieg by 32 points in this poll, which is definitely believable. I don’t think they’re underrating GOP support, and Biden trailing by "only" 20 points in KY isn’t that implausible considering his double-digit lead over Trump nationally.

It’s not really about red states, but polls underestimate frequently republican candidates in states along the Ohio River, just look at OH gov 2018, IN Sen 2018, IN gov 2016, IN Sen 2016, KY gov 2015.... polls greatly overestimated dems candidates

Why is this the case? In WI/MI/PA polls were pretty accurate in 2018, it just seems to be OH/IN/KY/WV/MO that are problematic (and IN isn't even ancestrally D)

I have two main explanations.

On the one hand these states have moved sharply to the right over the past 10 years, and polls have not necessarily taken into account these shifts when doing their survey, for example in Ohio the electorate is now 40/35 R/D but many pollsters, last year, used samples where Dems were a plurality of the electorate, I remember a Suffolk University poll where Dems had a seven points advantage in term of voter identification, of course this sample was not really representative of the Ohio electorate and thus the results of this poll were skewed in favour of democratic candidates.

Another reason is probably due to the fact that in these states you have a big difference between non college white voters who are very heavily republican and and white college educated voters who are more split between R and D (even if they still lean republican overall), and like pollsters tend to oversample college educated voters, polls results end up too favourable to democrats

[lfromnj]

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

Gov. Kobach, Sen. Morrisey, Sen. Rosendale, and Gov. Vitter agree.

Trump is leading Warren and Buttgieg by 32 points in this poll, which is definitely believable. I don’t think they’re underrating GOP support, and Biden trailing by "only" 20 points in KY isn’t that implausible considering his double-digit lead over Trump nationally.

It’s not really about red states, but polls underestimate frequently republican candidates in states along the Ohio River, just look at OH gov 2018, IN Sen 2018, IN gov 2016, IN Sen 2016, KY gov 2015.... polls greatly overestimated dems candidates

Why is this the case? In WI/MI/PA polls were pretty accurate in 2018, it just seems to be OH/IN/KY/WV/MO that are problematic (and IN isn't even ancestrally D)

I have two main explanations.

On the one hand these states have moved sharply to the right over the past 10 years, and polls have not necessarily taken into account these shifts when doing their survey, for example in Ohio the electorate is now 40/35 R/D but many pollsters, last year, used samples where Dems were a plurality of the electorate, I remember a Suffolk University poll where Dems had a seven points advantage in term of voter identification, of course this sample was not really representative of the Ohio electorate and thus the results of this poll were skewed in favour of democratic candidates.

Another reason is probably due to the fact that in these states you have a big difference between non college white voters who are very heavily republican and and white college educated voters who are more split between R and D (even if they still lean republican overall), and like pollsters tend to oversample college educated voters, polls results end up to favourable to democrats

I think its closer to the latter.

It also hurts the GOP in areas like Texas/Nevada(especially Nevada because turnout is really weird there due to the Unions/Reid Machine)

[Frenchrepublican]

Republicans always poll about 10% less than their final results in Safe R states.

Gov. Kobach, Sen. Morrisey, Sen. Rosendale, and Gov. Vitter agree.

Trump is leading Warren and Buttgieg by 32 points in this poll, which is definitely believable. I don’t think they’re underrating GOP support, and Biden trailing by "only" 20 points in KY isn’t that implausible considering his double-digit lead over Trump nationally.

It’s not really about red states, but polls underestimate frequently republican candidates in states along the Ohio River, just look at OH gov 2018, IN Sen 2018, IN gov 2016, IN Sen 2016, KY gov 2015.... polls greatly overestimated dems candidates

Why is this the case? In WI/MI/PA polls were pretty accurate in 2018, it just seems to be OH/IN/KY/WV/MO that are problematic (and IN isn't even ancestrally D)

I have two main explanations.

On the one hand these states have moved sharply to the right over the past 10 years, and polls have not necessarily taken into account these shifts when doing their survey, for example in Ohio the electorate is now 40/35 R/D but many pollsters, last year, used samples where Dems were a plurality of the electorate, I remember a Suffolk University poll where Dems had a seven points advantage in term of voter identification, of course this sample was not really representative of the Ohio electorate and thus the results of this poll were skewed in favour of democratic candidates.

Another reason is probably due to the fact that in these states you have a big difference between non college white voters who are very heavily republican and and white college educated voters who are more split between R and D (even if they still lean republican overall), and like pollsters tend to oversample college educated voters, polls results end up to favourable to democrats

I think its closer to the latter.

It also hurts the GOP in areas like Texas/Nevada(especially Nevada because turnout is really weird there due to the Unions/Reid Machine)

In NV the problem is that pollsters tend to underestimate the share of Latino voters and even more important they underestimate Spanish speaking latinos (because they are difficult to reach and don’t respond to surveys) and as these voters are voting 85/15 D/R you end up with a sample which is too white, and thus too republican friendly, it’s why I considered Heller as the underdog even if he was leading Rosen in polls

[Gracile]

I think Bevin has a slight advantage - and it is possible that this poll is underestimating his support.

[Skye]

lmao. It is Gravis though.

[President Johnson]

Likely Republican.

It's Gravis, but it's also Kentucky.