FL-GOV 2022: Gillum probably seeking rematch

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

no way in hell GOP carries Palm Beach, under any circumstances

Gotta agree with Sam. They can run the numbers up here but they’ll never actually carry the county.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Advantage DeSantis unless Trump is somehow still president. That said, DeSantis won't have Rick Scott spending literally tens of millions of dollars of his own personal Fortune to help get out the vote like 2018

That’s not quite what happened. The Senate race was a real sleeper. Nelson didn’t campaign, and Scott was nowhere to be seen outside of his official duties as Governor. DeSantis ran a truly active campaign and toured the state, as did Gillum, and from my experience I think it was the Governor’s race more so than the Senate race which drove people to the polls.

[Yellowhammer]

no way in hell GOP carries Palm Beach, under any circumstances

Gotta agree with Sam. They can run the numbers up here but they’ll never actually carry the county.

I'd say it's possible, but it would probably require an R carrying the state by about 20 points, which is extremely unlikely. The republican candidate for treasurer did carry it in 2014.

[Flyersfan232]

Advantage DeSantis unless Trump is somehow still president. That said, DeSantis won't have Rick Scott spending literally tens of millions of dollars of his own personal Fortune to help get out the vote like 2018

That’s not quite what happened. The Senate race was a real sleeper. Nelson didn’t campaign, and Scott was nowhere to be seen outside of his official duties as Governor. DeSantis ran a truly active campaign and toured the state, as did Gillum, and from my experience I think it was the Governor’s race more so than the Senate race which drove people to the polls.

Remember the polls that had scott down by double digest also why did no else try to challahs Nelson?

[Donerail]

I'd say it's possible, but it would probably require an R carrying the state by about 20 points, which is extremely unlikely. The republican candidate for treasurer did carry it in 2014.

That was Jeff Atwater, who represented parts of the county in the State Senate & House for a decade.

[MT Treasurer]

Two-term governor Corbett and one-term governor Kasich agree that approval numbers three years before the actual election are a very good way of determining reelection odds.

[Skill and Chance]

Two-term governor Corbett and one-term governor Kasich agree that approval numbers three years before the actual election are a very good way of determining reelection odds.

I still think he will be very hard to beat.  Also, the term that begins in 2026 is much more important for the left's goal of gaining back ground on the state supreme court.  3 of the 7 current justices will hit mandatory retirement age during 2027-30.

[Basil]

I'm just curious as to why the polls were so off during the election. Did Scott/DeSantis really improve their numbers in the last days of the campaign, or was there a systemic error in the turnout models or what?

[President Johnson]

I wonder where Gillum's approval would be standing right now if he was elected? The Republican legislature would definitely obstruct him bigly.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm just curious as to why the polls were so off during the election. Did Scott/DeSantis really improve their numbers in the last days of the campaign, or was there a systemic error in the turnout models or what?

Isn't there some history of FL polls overestimating Dems? 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis and Rubio are gonna be easily reelected.  Cant say the same about DeWine or Portman if Tim Ryan gets into the race against either one. But, Portman has a 40% approval

[Fuzzy Bear]

I wonder where Gillum's approval would be standing right now if he was elected? The Republican legislature would definitely obstruct him bigly.

Probably in the toilet.

Gillum's not likable.  He's the kind of guy that needs to marshal the supporters and hope it's enough, with a little bit of resentment toward the opposition.

That almost worked in 2018, but Gillum lost ground in Miami-Dade with Cubans, some of whom saw him as a Socialist and thought of Castro.  That, and DeSantis is generally likable. 

DeSantis is a VERY ACTIVE Governor, and he's doing the things that FL's seniors and retirees like.  I have trouble imagining DeSantis not being reelected by a healthy margin.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder where Gillum's approval would be standing right now if he was elected? The Republican legislature would definitely obstruct him bigly.

Probably in the toilet.

Gillum's not likable.  He's the kind of guy that needs to marshal the supporters and hope it's enough, with a little bit of resentment toward the opposition.

That almost worked in 2018, but Gillum lost ground in Miami-Dade with Cubans, some of whom saw him as a Socialist and thought of Castro.  That, and DeSantis is generally likable.  

DeSantis is a VERY ACTIVE Governor, and he's doing the things that FL's seniors and retirees like.  I have trouble imagining DeSantis not being reelected by a healthy margin.

I continue to be amazed by how popular DeSantis has managed to become over the past several months. He campaigned as an ardent Trumpist, and had controversies (i.e. the "monkey it up" remark, which led many to accuse him of racism, including Gillum). But he has governed as a pragmatist, with definite conservative leanings, but with the capability of working with the other side and with a focus upon Florida's issues. If he keeps this up (and I see no sign that he won't), he will be reelected easily next time, against Gillum or anyone else.