FL-GOV 2022: Gillum probably seeking rematch

[Mr. Smith]

Democrats all over the country won much tougher territory than Florida last year. There was no excuse for Gillum to lose.

They also lost easier turf too. Easier turf with competent state parties to boot.

[IceSpear]

Democrats all over the country won much tougher territory than Florida last year. There was no excuse for Gillum to lose.

They also lost easier turf too. Easier turf with competent state parties to boot.

They did?

Unless you're referring to popular incumbents like Baker, Scott, Hogan, etc. which is apples and oranges.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats all over the country won much tougher territory than Florida last year. There was no excuse for Gillum to lose.

He lost because Nelson barely did anything and still had millions on hands after the election.

IIRC Bill Nelson ran a pretty lousy campaign (his team never quite seemed to get that the path to victory had changed since 2000) and lost largely b/c of that and Lord Voldemort’s post-re-election surge in popularity.  Gillum was a weak (albeit charismatic) GE candidate with late-breaking corruption issues who was from the wrong part of the state.  Plus, if my grandfather is right, it sounds like there was a bit of a low key Bradley effect at play too in some areas.  They each could’ve carried the other over the finish line had they run stronger campaigns, but neither was responsible for the other one’s loss.  Nelson

[OSR stands with Israel]

Democrats all over the country won much tougher territory than Florida last year. There was no excuse for Gillum to lose.

The only places Dems won in tougher territory than FL was WV and MT and that was only cause in WV the Dem Nominee was Manchin and MT is only really solidly Republican at the Presidential level

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats all over the country won much tougher territory than Florida last year. There was no excuse for Gillum to lose.

The only places Dems won in tougher territory than FL was WV and MT and that was only cause in WV the Dem Nominee was Manchin and MT is only really solidly Republican at the Presidential level

Actually, Mr. Computer, I can think of Democrats winning statewide in Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, and almost winning in South Dakota, Georgia, and Texas in addition to Montana and West Virginia, and that’s just off the top of my head.

They also won much tougher House seats than Florida, namely ME-02, SC-01, OK-05, NY-22, NY-11, MN-07, VA-07, IL-14, IA-01, MI-08, NM-02, UT-04, PA-08, and maybe some more

Again, there was no excuse for Gillum to lose. Blame it on the FBI corruption cloud hanging over city hall, blame it on him taking positions on national issues that had little relevance at all to the office of Governor of Florida (abolish ICE, impeach Trump, etc), his horrible pick for Lieutenant Governor that added nothing to the ticket. And I don’t buy the Bradley Effect costing him the election, at least not primarily.  Stacey Abrams did much better than Gillum relative to the state’s PVI, and she was a black woman running against another flawed Republican opponent. Any of those factors could have single handedlymade the difference between him being Governor right now, and all those were arguably within his control.

And just think: he’d probably be a front runner for President right now had he won. But he bit off way more than he could chew.

[Dereich]

DeSantis is doing all the right things to get re-elected.

The serious candidates will not be running.  The 2022 Democrat will be a decided underdog.  The question would be whether or not Little Marco would be vulnerable.

Gillum's star is sinking.

What Congress district or state senate seat he lives in?

The African American Trump Democrat Al Lawson's seat.

God id love for Gillum to primary him then maybe run for senate or something I think gillum could make a great president one day hes one of my favorite rising stars in the party

Gillum lost a statewide election in a blue wave year with more favorable circumstances in his state.  He should never have lost.  He'd get destroyed in a nationwide general.

Given what happened with other races in Florida [except for Nikki Fried], it's pretty clear that circumstances were quite the opposite of favorable.

Keep in mind, I never heard of Niki Fried until she won. I never saw any ads on TV or radio. I never saw any yard sides or bumper stickers. I didn’t even know Caldwell even had an opponent until I saw her name on the ballot, and I just assumed she was some rando.

Really? That's surprising. I got (and for some reason, despite never signing up for anything or providing my information continue to get) dozens of emails from her campaign. I believe I heard more from her than anyone else besides Scott. And I think that was because I donated to his last governor's campaign.

[Yellowhammer]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

[Donerail]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

[Yellowhammer]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

[Pandaguineapig]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Rubio and Moody won Hillsborough

[Donerail]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

[Yellowhammer]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

No, but with his sky-high approvals (he is barely underwater amongst democrats IIRC)-- if the dems run Gillum, an uninspiring Venezuela-style communist under FBI investigation, DeSantis will cruise to reelction, possibly by double digits.
Republicans routinely win Hillsborough, so its not like this is unprecedented or even mildly far-fetched. Every statewide republican except Scott in 2014, Rubio in 2016, Moody in 2018, and so on.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

No, but with his sky-high approvals (he is barely underwater amongst democrats IIRC)-- if the dems run Gillum, an uninspiring Venezuela-style communist under FBI investigation, DeSantis will cruise to reelction, possibly by double digits.
Republicans routinely win Hillsborough, so its not like this is unprecedented or even mildly far-fetched. Every statewide republican except Scott in 2014, Rubio in 2016, Moody in 2018, and so on.

Approvals three and a half years out aren't that indicative of where things will end up. Tom Corbett was popular and John Kasich and Rick Scott extremely unpopular at this point in 2011.

[Continential]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

No, but with his sky-high approvals (he is barely underwater amongst democrats IIRC)-- if the dems run Gillum, an uninspiring Venezuela-style communist under FBI investigation, DeSantis will cruise to reelction, possibly by double digits.
Republicans routinely win Hillsborough, so its not like this is unprecedented or even mildly far-fetched. Every statewide republican except Scott in 2014, Rubio in 2016, Moody in 2018, and so on.

Gillum isn't a Communist, he is more like Harris.

[IceSpear]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

No, but with his sky-high approvals (he is barely underwater amongst democrats IIRC)-- if the dems run Gillum, an uninspiring Venezuela-style communist under FBI investigation, DeSantis will cruise to reelction, possibly by double digits.
Republicans routinely win Hillsborough, so its not like this is unprecedented or even mildly far-fetched. Every statewide republican except Scott in 2014, Rubio in 2016, Moody in 2018, and so on.

Gillum isn't a Communist, he is more like Harris.

Yellowhammer thinks everyone to the left of Roy Moore is a communist.

[Yellowhammer]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

No, but with his sky-high approvals (he is barely underwater amongst democrats IIRC)-- if the dems run Gillum, an uninspiring Venezuela-style communist under FBI investigation, DeSantis will cruise to reelction, possibly by double digits.
Republicans routinely win Hillsborough, so its not like this is unprecedented or even mildly far-fetched. Every statewide republican except Scott in 2014, Rubio in 2016, Moody in 2018, and so on.

Gillum isn't a Communist, he is more like Harris.

... who is a communist

[Continential]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

No, but with his sky-high approvals (he is barely underwater amongst democrats IIRC)-- if the dems run Gillum, an uninspiring Venezuela-style communist under FBI investigation, DeSantis will cruise to reelction, possibly by double digits.
Republicans routinely win Hillsborough, so its not like this is unprecedented or even mildly far-fetched. Every statewide republican except Scott in 2014, Rubio in 2016, Moody in 2018, and so on.

Gillum isn't a Communist, he is more like Harris.

... who is a communist

So, Hillary is a commie according to you?..

[ajc0918]

This is what I'd expect the county map to be if it was a Gillum/DeSantis rematch:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=crm

Gillum wouldn’t win St. Lucie or Duval, and would likely loose even Hillsborough too.

are you on crack?? no dem is gonna lose hillsborough

Check out the 2018 attorney general race results

Moody is from Plant City. Do you think DeSantis is going to send himself back in time so he can graduate from Armwood?

No, but with his sky-high approvals (he is barely underwater amongst democrats IIRC)-- if the dems run Gillum, an uninspiring Venezuela-style communist under FBI investigation, DeSantis will cruise to reelction, possibly by double digits.
Republicans routinely win Hillsborough, so its not like this is unprecedented or even mildly far-fetched. Every statewide republican except Scott in 2014, Rubio in 2016, Moody in 2018, and so on.

Republicans USE to routinely win Hillsborough. Yes Moody won it in 2018 but the Hillsborough is moving quickly to the left. I think will likely reach Orange County levels support for Dems in five to ten years. Dems just flipped the Hillsborough County Commission to a Dem majority and took a majority in the state delegation for the first time in decades. The suburbs are getting bluer every day and Dems now have a 65,000 registration advantage in the county. Hillsborough's role as the state's bellwether are over. Pinellas might be a bellwether but even it slightly leaning left.

[Mr. Smith]

Democrats all over the country won much tougher territory than Florida last year. There was no excuse for Gillum to lose.

They also lost easier turf too. Easier turf with competent state parties to boot.

They did?

Unless you're referring to popular incumbents like Baker, Scott, Hogan, etc. which is apples and oranges.

Sure, CA-50, MN-08, that PA district Scott Wallace lost, and from a certain POV [accounting for the huge approval shift against Trump, the majority takeover of the House]...freaking Iowa.

[RI]

DeSantis's approval hits 72%.

[Matty]

DeSantis's approval hits 72%.

With numbers like that, not only will it scare dems away from funneling money to his challenger, it will make him an intriguing figure in national politics down the line

[Sir Mohamed]

DeSantis's approval hits 72%.

With numbers like that, not only will it scare dems away from funneling money to his challenger, it will make him an intriguing figure in national politics down the line

FL Dems would find a way to blow the race by 1% even if his approval was 32%.

If the DeSantis approval stays in this range until the next election, which is a long time in politics, and Gillum ran again, this would for sure be a modern Deukmenjian vs. Bradley rematch.

[Badger]

Advantage DeSantis unless Trump is somehow still president. That said, DeSantis won't have Rick Scott spending literally tens of millions of dollars of his own personal Fortune to help get out the vote like 2018

[ElectionsGuy]

F it, let's make a 3 year away prediction...

[Donerail]

no way in hell GOP carries Palm Beach, under any circumstances