2019 Canadian Election -- Early Predictions
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  2019 Canadian Election -- Early Predictions
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tomhguy
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« on: June 12, 2019, 12:52:50 PM »
« edited: December 16, 2022, 03:08:44 PM by tomhguy »

This was dumb
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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2019, 06:58:42 AM »

Liberal - 170 Seats - 36.5%
Conservative - 126 Seats - 33.5%
NDP - 28 Seats - 15.4%
BQ - 11 Seats - 4.2%
Green - 2 Seats - 5.8%
People's - 1 Seat - 2.5%

Here we see a tiny majority for Trudeau. He loses about 13 seats from the last election, whilst the conservatives gain 26. There is a 2.29% swing from the Liberals to the Tories. The main story of the night is the collapse of the NDP to both the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Liberals manage to offset about 20 losses to the tories from 5-10 gains from the NDP. The Tories also have about 5-10 seats gained in this area. It's worth noting that the top 9 LIB-NDP marginals are within 2%, and 7 within 1.25%. Therefore, just a small swing would give the Liberals a few seats to stop major losses. Whilst the Tories will see much larger swings against the NDP, their marginals are much harder to overcome, with the 5th marginal having a majority of 5.73%.
At the moment we see the Tories ahead in the polls, but why have I predicted a majority (or possible  minority depending on a few ridings) for the Libs. Well, I predict the Greens to start to lose momentum as people actually look at their policies more and vote tactically. Most of this vote will go to the Liberals and the NDP. There have been very few 1-term prime-ministers. Therefore, with very few people even knowing the Consevative leader, I think that the Liberals will be able to secure a second term. The Tories have a weak and uncharimatic leader, a general "nice-guy", but someone no-one really wants to be their leader. Furthermore, at the moment, the Tories are stumbling in the polls, failing to hold onto their lead that SNC-Lavalin brought them.
(PS. The BQ will lose votes, but gain a seat due to electoral math with the NDP.)

And also the Canadian economy did very well in the last four years as the unemployment rate went down from 7.2 % in October 2015 to 5.4 % today. And normally, when the economy does so well, the incumbent party usually takes an advantage on this.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2019, 10:50:04 PM »

Liberal - 152 Seats - 36.4%
Conservative - 142 Seats - 34.0%
NDP - 23 Seats - 15.0%
BQ - 13 Seats - 4.9%
Green - 6 Seats - 6.2%
People's - 1 Seat - 2.1%
Independent - 1 Seat (JWR)

Trudeau forms a minority government with the NDP agreeing to support it on a case-by-case basis.
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Kool-Aid
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2019, 08:20:11 PM »

Liberals with win the GTA
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