2020 Presidential Predictions (General) (user search)
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Latest 2020 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
albaleman (D-MN)MapProfile 04-10 1 D +87 219 (-87) 319 (+87) 0 (0) 0
ShadowWave (D-PA)MapProfile 10-11 7 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
Sheliak6 (I-GA)Map 11-01 40 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
IceSpear (D-PA)MapProfile 07-25 1 D +48 258 (-48) 280 (+48) 0 (0) 0
KaiserDave (D-NY)MapProfile 10-19 2 D +74 232 (-74) 306 (+74) 0 (0) 0
frenchGOP (R-FRA)MapProfile 11-01 14 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
Encke (I-CA)MapProfile 11-02 3 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
sameerd (N-VA)MapProfile 07-24 1 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
CityByTheValley (D-CA)MapProfile 12-28 1 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
firstdegreburns (I-ID)Map 09-19 11 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
TimTurner (I-TX)MapProfile 11-03 1 D +181 125 (-181) 413 (+181) 0 (0) 0
cvparty (--NJ)MapProfile 11-03 8 D +119 187 (-119) 351 (+119) 0 (0) 0
VilleThunder (I-KY)MapProfile 11-03 5 D +12 294 (-12) 244 (+12) 0 (0) 0
Adam ObAwesome (D-SC)MapProfile 11-03 2 D +175 131 (-175) 407 (+175) 0 (0) 0
kerry (D-TX)Map 11-03 1 D +157 149 (-157) 389 (+157) 0 (0) 0
Roosevelt (R-SC)MapProfile 11-03 11 D +181 125 (-181) 413 (+181) 0 (0) 0
madara5309 (R-CO)Map 11-03 2 D +57 249 (-57) 289 (+57) 0 (0) 0
turkmenbashi (D-WA)MapProfile 11-03 6 D +29 277 (-29) 261 (+29) 0 (0) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-03 443 D +212 94 (-212) 444 (+212) 0 (0) 0
fezzyfestoon (O-PA)MapProfile 11-03 6 D +103 203 (-103) 335 (+103) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 173697 times)
DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« on: November 02, 2019, 01:41:03 PM »

D +61   D: 293 (+61)   R: 245 (-61)





Several rating changes from prior predictions:

IA: Tossup => Lean R
ME-AL: Safe D => Tossup
ME-02: Tossup => Lean R
MI: Lean D => Tossup
MN: Lean D => Tossup
NE-02: Tossup => Lean R
NH: Lean D => Tossup
OH: Tossup => Lean R
PA: Lean D => Tossup
TX: Lean R => Tossup
VA: Lean D => Tossup
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2020, 05:01:54 PM »



Current predictions for the swing states/districts:

Arizona: +2 Biden
Florida: +0.5 Biden
North Carolina: +0.5 Trump
Pennsylvania: +4 Biden
Wisconsin: +1 Biden

ME-02: +4 Trump
NE-02: +0.5 Trump
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2020, 05:29:52 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2020, 05:38:30 PM by DabbingSanta »

First shot at state margins. I take in to account the "silent Trump" support, and I do believe polls are inflating Biden, but given the huge margins atm he'll still pull out a victory. Will change as needed.

CO: +10 Biden
VA: +8 Biden
NV: +6 Biden
NH: +5 Biden
MI: +1.5 Biden
MN: +1.5 Biden
PA: +1.5 Biden
AZ: +1 Biden
WI: +0.5 Biden
FL: +1 Trump
NE-2: +1.5 Trump
NC: +3 Trump
ME-2: +4 Trump
GA: +5 Trump
OH: +5 Trump
IA: +7 Trump
TX: +8 Trump

Biden wins 289-249.
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2020, 09:30:05 PM »



Sticking with the same forecast for now, a narrow 290-248 win for Biden, assuming that the race tightens towards the conventions. May need to alter significantly if Trump doesn't gain ground this month.
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2020, 08:44:21 PM »

My forecast:



Actual results:



Postmortem on my forecast:

I predicted the wrong winner in three states (FL, GA, NC)

I overestimated Democrat support in the Midwest by a significant margin.

My most accurate states were Texas and Minnesota. The least accurate? Ohio and Iowa.

Here are my predicted margins from before the election vs the actual margins as of Nov 8th, 2020. We won't know Alaska for a while, so I'll leave that one out of the equation.

Alaska:   +12 Trump   N/A
Montana:   +12 Trump   +16.3 Trump   (4.3)
Texas:   +5 Trump      +5.8 Trump     (0.8)
Iowa:   +2 Trump      +8.2 Trump     (6.2)
Georgia:   +1 Trump           +0.2 Biden      (1.2)
Ohio:   +1 Trump      +8.2 Trump     (7.2)
N Carolina: +0.5 Biden       +1.4 Trump     (1.9)
Florida:   +1 Biden      +3.4 Trump     (4.4)
Arizona:   +2 Biden      +0.5 Biden      (1.5)
Nevada:   +5 Biden      +2.4 Biden      (2.6)
Pennsylvania: +5 Biden   +0.6 Biden      (4.4)
Wisconsin:   +5 Biden      +0.7 Biden      (4.3)
New Hampshire: +6 Biden   +7.2 Biden      (1.2)
Michigan:   +8 Biden      +2.7 Biden      (5.3)
Minnesota:+8 Biden      +7.2 Biden      (0.8)
Maine:   +10 Biden      +8.7 Biden      (1.3)
Colorado:   +12 Biden      +13.2 Biden    (1.2)
Virginia:   +12 Biden      +9.6 Biden      (2.4)
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2020, 11:35:51 AM »

Alaska update...

Forecast: +12 Trump

Actual: +10.8 Trump
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2021, 05:27:21 PM »

When will the scores be posted? Anxiously waiting! Smiley
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2021, 07:06:49 PM »


A photo of me, waiting
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DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2021, 06:22:42 PM »


Yeah, what is up with Dave recently?  Hope everything is ok
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