Biden/Harris 53% -- 335 EV (WINNER) Trump/Pence 45% -- 203 EVRatings:
Green: pure Toss-up; closest states
>30%: competitive but one party has the advantage
>40%: very unlikely to be competitive, even in a close race
>70%: safe under any scenario
Closest statesAlaska: Trump +7 (Likely R)
Arizona: Biden +6 (Likely D, FLIP)
Florida: Biden +2 (Lean D, FLIP)
Georgia: Biden +<0.5 (Toss-up/Tilt D, FLIP)
Iowa: Trump +5.5 (Likely R)
Kansas: Trump +8 (Likely R)
Maine At-Large: Biden +5 (Lean D)
ME-02: Trump +8 (Likely R)
Montana: Trump +8 (Safe R)
Michigan: Biden +4 (Lean D, FLIP) <- Tipping Point
Minnesota: Biden +4 (Lean D)
NE-02: Biden +6 (Likely D, FLIP)
Nevada: Biden +7 (Likely D)
New Hampshire: Biden +5.5 (Lean D)
North Carolina: Trump +<1 (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
Ohio: Trump +4.5 (Lean R)
Pennsylvania: Biden +4 (Lean D, FLIP)
South Carolina: Trump +7.5 (Safe R)
Texas: Trump +<1 (Toss-up/Tilt R)
Wisconsin: Biden +3.5 (Lean D, FLIP)
States with the strongest trendsD: Montana, Kansas
R: New Mexico, Arkansas
Democrats win the PV by about the same margin as the House popular vote in 2018. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a stable election as this one, and the big picture (which goes way beyond polling) couldn’t be any clearer at this point. Even before the pandemic, I think the outcome of this election was close to set in stone, especially against an opponent whose favorability ratings are nowhere near as abysmal as Clinton's in 2016.
Expect a continuation of 2012 -> 2016/2018 trends in most places, as Biden's victory is primarily fueled by a Republican collapse in urban and (especially) suburban areas and Democrats (with some exceptions) only make small inroads into rural/small-town America, including in the Midwest.
