2020 Presidential Predictions (General) (user search)
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Latest 2020 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
albaleman (D-MN)MapProfile 04-10 1 D +87 219 (-87) 319 (+87) 0 (0) 0
ShadowWave (D-PA)MapProfile 10-11 7 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
Sheliak6 (I-GA)Map 11-01 40 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
IceSpear (D-PA)MapProfile 07-25 1 D +48 258 (-48) 280 (+48) 0 (0) 0
KaiserDave (D-NY)MapProfile 10-19 2 D +74 232 (-74) 306 (+74) 0 (0) 0
frenchGOP (R-FRA)MapProfile 11-01 14 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
Encke (I-CA)MapProfile 11-02 3 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
sameerd (N-VA)MapProfile 07-24 1 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
CityByTheValley (D-CA)MapProfile 12-28 1 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
firstdegreburns (I-ID)Map 09-19 11 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
TimTurner (I-TX)MapProfile 11-03 1 D +181 125 (-181) 413 (+181) 0 (0) 0
cvparty (--NJ)MapProfile 11-03 8 D +119 187 (-119) 351 (+119) 0 (0) 0
VilleThunder (I-KY)MapProfile 11-03 5 D +12 294 (-12) 244 (+12) 0 (0) 0
Adam ObAwesome (D-SC)MapProfile 11-03 2 D +175 131 (-175) 407 (+175) 0 (0) 0
kerry (D-TX)Map 11-03 1 D +157 149 (-157) 389 (+157) 0 (0) 0
Roosevelt (R-SC)MapProfile 11-03 11 D +181 125 (-181) 413 (+181) 0 (0) 0
madara5309 (R-CO)Map 11-03 2 D +57 249 (-57) 289 (+57) 0 (0) 0
turkmenbashi (D-WA)MapProfile 11-03 6 D +29 277 (-29) 261 (+29) 0 (0) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 11-03 443 D +212 94 (-212) 444 (+212) 0 (0) 0
fezzyfestoon (O-PA)MapProfile 11-03 6 D +103 203 (-103) 335 (+103) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 173734 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: June 25, 2019, 07:41:39 PM »


What's with Nebraska?
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2019, 01:30:25 AM »

What the heck. Here's my (way too early) prediction of a Trump vs. Biden race.



PV: Biden +2.5

AL: Trump 64-34
AK: Trump 52-40
AZ: Trump 48-47
AR: Trump 63-34
CA: Biden 64-32
CO: Biden 52-44
CT: Biden 56-41
DC: Biden 92-5
DE: Biden 58-39
FL: Trump 49-48
GA: Trump 50-48
HI: Biden 62-34
ID: Trump 65-29
IL: Biden 56-41
IN: Trump 57-40
IA: Trump 51-44
KS: Trump 55-40
KY: Trump 62-34
LA: Trump 58-39
ME-AL: Biden 49-47
ME-01: Biden 56-40
ME-02: Trump 53-42
MD: Biden 62-34
MA: Biden 62-35
MI: Trump 48-48
MN: Biden 49-46
MS: Trump 57-42
MO: Trump 58-38
MT: Trump 55-39
NE-AL: Trump 59-37
NE-01: Trump 57-39
NE-02: Trump 48-47
NE-03: Trump 76-21
NV: Biden 51-45
NH: Biden 48-47
NJ: Biden 56-40
NM: Biden 52-42
NY: Biden 61-35
NC: Trump 50-47
ND: Trump 64-31
OH: Trump 52-44
OK: Trump 66-31
OR: Biden 53-41
PA: Biden 49-48
RI: Biden 56-39
SC: Trump 54-42
SD: Trump 62-35
TN: Trump 63-33
TX: Trump 51-45
UT: Trump 60-35
VT: Biden 62-32
VA: Biden 53-44
WA: Biden 56-38
WV: Trump 70-25
WI: Trump 48-48
WY: Trump 72-24
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2020, 10:44:14 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2020, 11:40:13 AM by Xing »



Biden/Harris - 319 EV (52%)
Trump/Pence - 219 EV (46%)

Presidential Rating: Lean D

Closest states

Alaska: Trump +8 (Likely R)
Arizona: Biden +2.5 (Lean D)
Florida: Biden +1 (Toss-Up/Tilt D)
Georgia: Trump +0.5 or less (Toss-Up/Tilt R) <- Closest state
Iowa: Trump +4.5 (Lean R)
Maine At-Large: Biden +5 (Likely D)
ME-02: Trump +7.5 (Likely R)
Michigan: Biden +3 (Lean D)
Minnesota: Biden +4.5 (Lean D)
NE-02: Biden +4.5 (Lean D)
Nevada: Biden +8 (Likely D)
New Hampshire: Biden +4 (Lean D)
North Carolina: Trump +1 (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
Ohio: Trump +4 (Lean R)
Pennsylvania: Biden +3.5 (Lean D)
Texas: Trump +2.5 (Lean R)
Wisconsin: Biden +3 (Lean D) <- Tipping Point

Basically, for Trump to win, he'd need another shift (and a bigger one) in his favor, or for a larger polling error than the one which we saw in 2016. While I suspect that some states like IA, NV, OH, and TX will have similar polling errors as what we saw in 2018, I don't think the polls will be that far off in MI/PA/WI (maybe Trump overperforms his polls there by a point or two.)
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 11:44:39 AM »


This is quite close to my prediction (I have Biden very narrowly winning NC and TX, but a lot of the margins are similar.) What's your prediction for the ultra-Republican home state of Dean Heller? Smiley
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