Biden/Harris - 319 EV (52%)Trump/Pence - 219 EV (46%)Presidential Rating:
Lean DClosest statesAlaska: Trump +8 (Likely R)
Arizona: Biden +2.5 (Lean D)
Florida: Biden +1 (Toss-Up/Tilt D)
Georgia: Trump +0.5 or less (Toss-Up/Tilt R) <- Closest state
Iowa: Trump +4.5 (Lean R)
Maine At-Large: Biden +5 (Likely D)
ME-02: Trump +7.5 (Likely R)
Michigan: Biden +3 (Lean D)
Minnesota: Biden +4.5 (Lean D)
NE-02: Biden +4.5 (Lean D)
Nevada: Biden +8 (Likely D)
New Hampshire: Biden +4 (Lean D)
North Carolina: Trump +1 (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
Ohio: Trump +4 (Lean R)
Pennsylvania: Biden +3.5 (Lean D)
Texas: Trump +2.5 (Lean R)
Wisconsin: Biden +3 (Lean D) <- Tipping Point
Basically, for Trump to win, he'd need another shift (and a bigger one) in his favor, or for a larger polling error than the one which we saw in 2016. While I suspect that some states like IA, NV, OH, and TX will have similar polling errors as what we saw in 2018, I don't think the polls will be that far off in MI/PA/WI (maybe Trump overperforms his polls there by a point or two.)