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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2020 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Ryangr_98 (R-CA)MapProfile 07-12 41 D +74 232 (-74) 306 (+74) 0 (0) 0
Yougo (D-FRA)Map 07-12 6 D +58 248 (-58) 290 (+58) 0 (0) 0
here2view (D-MA)MapProfile 07-12 12 D +87 219 (-87) 319 (+87) 0 (0) 0
KevinCQBrady ()Map 07-12 7 D +143 163 (-143) 375 (+143) 0 (0) 0
Olawakandi (G-CA)MapProfile 07-12 342 D +205 101 (-205) 437 (+205) 0 (0) 0
BushCountry (I-IN)MapProfile 07-12 35 D +146 160 (-146) 378 (+146) 0 (0) 0
MelihV (D-ND)MapProfile 07-12 6 D +87 219 (-87) 319 (+87) 0 (0) 0
Nagas (D-CA)MapProfile 07-12 1 D +183 123 (-183) 415 (+183) 0 (0) 0
vt500ascott (D-TX)MapProfile 07-12 44 D +112 194 (-112) 344 (+112) 0 (0) 0
Unimog (I-ME)Map 07-12 46 R +31 337 (+31) 201 (-31) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
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Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 29725 times)
mathstatman
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« Reply #25 on: June 04, 2020, 08:48:53 am »

I predicted 264 Dem EVs and 230 GOP EVs with confidence. Allocating NH to Biden and FL, NE-2, and WI to Trump gives Trump a narrow 270-268 victory. (Biden flips only MI and PA).

I realize my prediction is less bullish on Biden than many. Whatever happens, I hope for healing.

If Trump wins 270-268, with Biden winning the PV by 2.5% - 3%, I see a distinct possibility of 1 or more faithless GOP electors, and unrest on all sides. Anything will be possible, at that point.

I think it's important for us to realize that the Constitution still reigns supreme, and that we will have a President (and, hopefully, a VP) at 12:01 PM on Wednesday, January 20.
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Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #26 on: June 04, 2020, 03:04:03 pm »
« Edited: June 04, 2020, 03:08:38 pm by Pear Squad »

June 2020 Prediction - Post-Floyd protests

AZ: Trump 49.5%, Biden 46%
CO: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
FL: Trump 49.5%, Biden 48%
GA: Trump 51%, Biden 47%
IA: Trump 52%, Biden 43%
ME: Biden 51%, Trump 46%
ME-02: Trump 54%, Biden 44%
MI: Trump 49.5%, Biden 48%
MN: Trump 49%, Biden 48.5%
NE-02: Trump 52%, Biden 47%
NV: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
NH: Trump 48.5%, Biden 47.5%
NC: Trump 49.5%, Biden 46%
OH: Trump 51%, Biden 45%
PA: Trump 50%, Biden 47.5%
TX: Trump 52%, Biden 46%
VA: Biden 51%, Trump 45%
WI: Trump 49.5%, Biden 46.5%

National PV: Biden 49%, Trump 48%

Trump: 320
Biden: 218
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Jopow
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« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2020, 01:41:57 pm »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #28 on: June 15, 2020, 10:57:15 am »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR

Can I have what you're smoking?
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Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019
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« Reply #29 on: June 16, 2020, 06:35:19 pm »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, Trump wouldn't win the bolded states even in his dreams. Even if he recovers from his current dismal polling position, he'd still easily lose the bolded states, maybe CO and VA flip in an absolute landslide, but that's it. Our country is too polarized for states like OR or DE to flip. Also he'd also probably lose NV, don't seem him doing well in Clark and he won't win Washoe by enough to win it. This is the most delusional prediction that I've seen on this site, even if Trump wins, it won't be this lopsided.
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Jopow
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« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2020, 06:52:51 am »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, Trump wouldn't win the bolded states even in his dreams. Even if he recovers from his current dismal polling position, he'd still easily lose the bolded states, maybe CO and VA flip in an absolute landslide, but that's it. Our country is too polarized for states like OR or DE to flip. Also he'd also probably lose NV, don't seem him doing well in Clark and he won't win Washoe by enough to win it. This is the most delusional prediction that I've seen on this site, even if Trump wins, it won't be this lopsided.
Obama won New Mexico by more than Clinton, Gary Johnson took 9% of vote in a state Clinton won by 8.

Virginia is a very political atmosphere due to 2A stuff and some local elections were very good for Reps.

Colorado hasn't had much info, but it would flip if they flipped.

Republicans are winning by 3 pts in NV primary turnout. And winning Washoe county.
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Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019
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« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2020, 12:54:40 pm »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, Trump wouldn't win the bolded states even in his dreams. Even if he recovers from his current dismal polling position, he'd still easily lose the bolded states, maybe CO and VA flip in an absolute landslide, but that's it. Our country is too polarized for states like OR or DE to flip. Also he'd also probably lose NV, don't seem him doing well in Clark and he won't win Washoe by enough to win it. This is the most delusional prediction that I've seen on this site, even if Trump wins, it won't be this lopsided.
Obama won New Mexico by more than Clinton, Gary Johnson took 9% of vote in a state Clinton won by 8.

A lot of these Johnson voters had Clinton as a second choice

Virginia is a very political atmosphere due to 2A stuff and some local elections were very good for Reps.

Lol NOVA and Henrico now dominate VA politics, the Shenandoah valley and the other rural hicks who were pushing the opposition to gun control are irrelevant in statewide politics.

Colorado hasn't had much info, but it would flip if they flipped.

Color me skeptical that Trump is suddenly going to improve in educated places like Adams and Arapahoe County

Republicans are winning by 3 pts in NV primary turnout. And winning Washoe county.


Primary turnout is a bad indicator for anything. Also Trump narrowly lost Washoe in 2016, you donít just have to win, you have to win it by close to double digits, like Dean Heller did in 2012, I doubt that happens.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2020, 05:29:52 pm »
« Edited: June 17, 2020, 05:38:30 pm by DabbingSanta »

First shot at state margins. I take in to account the "silent Trump" support, and I do believe polls are inflating Biden, but given the huge margins atm he'll still pull out a victory. Will change as needed.

CO: +10 Biden
VA: +8 Biden
NV: +6 Biden
NH: +5 Biden
MI: +1.5 Biden
MN: +1.5 Biden
PA: +1.5 Biden
AZ: +1 Biden
WI: +0.5 Biden
FL: +1 Trump
NE-2: +1.5 Trump
NC: +3 Trump
ME-2: +4 Trump
GA: +5 Trump
OH: +5 Trump
IA: +7 Trump
TX: +8 Trump

Biden wins 289-249.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #33 on: June 18, 2020, 08:21:52 am »

Mid-June Update (possibly Trump's worst point in this cycle)



Safe D: 210
Likely D: 22
Lean D: 87 <-- Election is decided here
Tilt D: 31
Tilt R: 38
Lean R: 25
Likely R: 12
Safe R: 113

Biden: 350
Trump: 188

NPV: 52.5% Biden, 45.0% Trump (Rating: Likely D)

AK: 53.0% Trump, 43.5% Biden
AZ: 51.0% Biden, 46.0% Trump
FL: 51.0% Biden, 47.0% Trump
IA: 51.0% Trump, 46.5% Biden
GA: 49.0% Biden, 48.5% Trump
ME: 53.0% Biden, 44.0% Trump
ME2: 51.5% Trump, 45.5% Biden
MI: 51.5% Biden, 46.0% Trump
MN: 52.0% Biden, 45.0% Trump
NE2: 51.0% Biden, 46.5% Trump
NV: 52.5% Biden, 44.5% Trump
NH: 52.5% Biden, 45.0% Trump
NC: 49.5% Biden, 48.0% Trump
OH: 50.5% Trump, 47.0% Biden
PA: 51.0% Biden, 46.5% Trump
SC: 53.5% Trump, 45.0% Biden
TX: 49.0% Trump, 48.5% Biden
WI: 50.5% Biden, 47.0% Trump
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Laki
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« Reply #34 on: June 28, 2020, 03:27:24 pm »

Changed my map as well. I have now GA, FL, MI, IA, WI, NE-2 flipping while MN stays D on top of AZ and PA that i had already as flipping. I have NC, TX and OH as still R, and moved MT into lean R.
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NHI
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« Reply #35 on: July 02, 2020, 08:26:02 am »

My current prediction stands at 318 -- 220

Biden regains the Blue wall, and flips FL and AZ. OH/NC/IA all decided by a point or less. GA by 2 points or a little less.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #36 on: July 03, 2020, 09:30:05 pm »



Sticking with the same forecast for now, a narrow 290-248 win for Biden, assuming that the race tightens towards the conventions. May need to alter significantly if Trump doesn't gain ground this month.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #37 on: July 05, 2020, 03:10:05 pm »

Biden flips Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and ME-02 and NE-02 for a 335-203 victory. Popular vote is 52.4% Biden, 46.1% Trump, 1.5% other.
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