2020 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 173662 times)
Spark
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« Reply #25 on: June 04, 2020, 03:04:03 PM »
« edited: June 04, 2020, 03:08:38 PM by Pear Squad »

June 2020 Prediction - Post-Floyd protests

AZ: Trump 49.5%, Biden 46%
CO: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
FL: Trump 49.5%, Biden 48%
GA: Trump 51%, Biden 47%
IA: Trump 52%, Biden 43%
ME: Biden 51%, Trump 46%
ME-02: Trump 54%, Biden 44%
MI: Trump 49.5%, Biden 48%
MN: Trump 49%, Biden 48.5%
NE-02: Trump 52%, Biden 47%
NV: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
NH: Trump 48.5%, Biden 47.5%
NC: Trump 49.5%, Biden 46%
OH: Trump 51%, Biden 45%
PA: Trump 50%, Biden 47.5%
TX: Trump 52%, Biden 46%
VA: Biden 51%, Trump 45%
WI: Trump 49.5%, Biden 46.5%

National PV: Biden 49%, Trump 48%

Trump: 320
Biden: 218
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Jopow
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« Reply #26 on: June 12, 2020, 01:41:57 PM »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #27 on: June 15, 2020, 10:57:15 AM »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR

Can I have what you're smoking?
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S019
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« Reply #28 on: June 16, 2020, 06:35:19 PM »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, Trump wouldn't win the bolded states even in his dreams. Even if he recovers from his current dismal polling position, he'd still easily lose the bolded states, maybe CO and VA flip in an absolute landslide, but that's it. Our country is too polarized for states like OR or DE to flip. Also he'd also probably lose NV, don't seem him doing well in Clark and he won't win Washoe by enough to win it. This is the most delusional prediction that I've seen on this site, even if Trump wins, it won't be this lopsided.
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Jopow
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« Reply #29 on: June 17, 2020, 06:52:51 AM »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, Trump wouldn't win the bolded states even in his dreams. Even if he recovers from his current dismal polling position, he'd still easily lose the bolded states, maybe CO and VA flip in an absolute landslide, but that's it. Our country is too polarized for states like OR or DE to flip. Also he'd also probably lose NV, don't seem him doing well in Clark and he won't win Washoe by enough to win it. This is the most delusional prediction that I've seen on this site, even if Trump wins, it won't be this lopsided.
Obama won New Mexico by more than Clinton, Gary Johnson took 9% of vote in a state Clinton won by 8.

Virginia is a very political atmosphere due to 2A stuff and some local elections were very good for Reps.

Colorado hasn't had much info, but it would flip if they flipped.

Republicans are winning by 3 pts in NV primary turnout. And winning Washoe county.
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S019
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« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2020, 12:54:40 PM »

Trump: 355-369 electoral votes
Biden: 183-169 electoral votes

Scenario A: 2016 plus Trump wins NH, MN, ME, NV, CO, VA, and NM.
Scenario B: Scen. A plus Delaware and Rhode Island.
Scenario C: Scen. A plus Oregon
Scenario D: Scen. A plus DE, RI, OR


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, Trump wouldn't win the bolded states even in his dreams. Even if he recovers from his current dismal polling position, he'd still easily lose the bolded states, maybe CO and VA flip in an absolute landslide, but that's it. Our country is too polarized for states like OR or DE to flip. Also he'd also probably lose NV, don't seem him doing well in Clark and he won't win Washoe by enough to win it. This is the most delusional prediction that I've seen on this site, even if Trump wins, it won't be this lopsided.
Obama won New Mexico by more than Clinton, Gary Johnson took 9% of vote in a state Clinton won by 8.

A lot of these Johnson voters had Clinton as a second choice

Virginia is a very political atmosphere due to 2A stuff and some local elections were very good for Reps.

Lol NOVA and Henrico now dominate VA politics, the Shenandoah valley and the other rural hicks who were pushing the opposition to gun control are irrelevant in statewide politics.

Colorado hasn't had much info, but it would flip if they flipped.

Color me skeptical that Trump is suddenly going to improve in educated places like Adams and Arapahoe County

Republicans are winning by 3 pts in NV primary turnout. And winning Washoe county.


Primary turnout is a bad indicator for anything. Also Trump narrowly lost Washoe in 2016, you don’t just have to win, you have to win it by close to double digits, like Dean Heller did in 2012, I doubt that happens.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2020, 05:29:52 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2020, 05:38:30 PM by DabbingSanta »

First shot at state margins. I take in to account the "silent Trump" support, and I do believe polls are inflating Biden, but given the huge margins atm he'll still pull out a victory. Will change as needed.

CO: +10 Biden
VA: +8 Biden
NV: +6 Biden
NH: +5 Biden
MI: +1.5 Biden
MN: +1.5 Biden
PA: +1.5 Biden
AZ: +1 Biden
WI: +0.5 Biden
FL: +1 Trump
NE-2: +1.5 Trump
NC: +3 Trump
ME-2: +4 Trump
GA: +5 Trump
OH: +5 Trump
IA: +7 Trump
TX: +8 Trump

Biden wins 289-249.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #32 on: June 18, 2020, 08:21:52 AM »

Mid-June Update (possibly Trump's worst point in this cycle)



Safe D: 210
Likely D: 22
Lean D: 87 <-- Election is decided here
Tilt D: 31
Tilt R: 38
Lean R: 25
Likely R: 12
Safe R: 113

Biden: 350
Trump: 188

NPV: 52.5% Biden, 45.0% Trump (Rating: Likely D)

AK: 53.0% Trump, 43.5% Biden
AZ: 51.0% Biden, 46.0% Trump
FL: 51.0% Biden, 47.0% Trump
IA: 51.0% Trump, 46.5% Biden
GA: 49.0% Biden, 48.5% Trump
ME: 53.0% Biden, 44.0% Trump
ME2: 51.5% Trump, 45.5% Biden
MI: 51.5% Biden, 46.0% Trump
MN: 52.0% Biden, 45.0% Trump
NE2: 51.0% Biden, 46.5% Trump
NV: 52.5% Biden, 44.5% Trump
NH: 52.5% Biden, 45.0% Trump
NC: 49.5% Biden, 48.0% Trump
OH: 50.5% Trump, 47.0% Biden
PA: 51.0% Biden, 46.5% Trump
SC: 53.5% Trump, 45.0% Biden
TX: 49.0% Trump, 48.5% Biden
WI: 50.5% Biden, 47.0% Trump
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #33 on: June 28, 2020, 03:27:24 PM »

Changed my map as well. I have now GA, FL, MI, IA, WI, NE-2 flipping while MN stays D on top of AZ and PA that i had already as flipping. I have NC, TX and OH as still R, and moved MT into lean R.
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NHI
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« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2020, 08:26:02 AM »

My current prediction stands at 318 -- 220

Biden regains the Blue wall, and flips FL and AZ. OH/NC/IA all decided by a point or less. GA by 2 points or a little less.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #35 on: July 03, 2020, 09:30:05 PM »



Sticking with the same forecast for now, a narrow 290-248 win for Biden, assuming that the race tightens towards the conventions. May need to alter significantly if Trump doesn't gain ground this month.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #36 on: July 05, 2020, 03:10:05 PM »

Biden flips Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and ME-02 and NE-02 for a 335-203 victory. Popular vote is 52.4% Biden, 46.1% Trump, 1.5% other.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #37 on: August 12, 2020, 04:36:16 AM »

Mid-August Update



Biden/Harris: 319, ~52%
Trump/Pence: 219, ~46%

Safe Biden: 210
Likely Biden: 12 (NPV)
Lean Biden: 56 <-- Election Decided Here (278 EV's)
Toss-Up/Tilt Biden: 41
Toss-Up/Tilt Trump: 31
Lean Trump: 63
Likely Trump: 12
Safe Trump: 113

AK: 51.5% Trump, 44.0% Biden
AZ: 49.5% Biden, 47.0% Trump
FL: 50.0% Biden, 48.0% Trump
GA: 49.5% Trump, 48.0% Biden
IA: 52.0% Trump, 46.0% Biden
ME: 52.0% Biden, 45.0% Trump
ME2: 51.5% Trump, 45.5% Biden
MI: 51.0% Biden, 46.5% Trump
MN: 51.0% Biden, 46.0% Trump
NE2: 50.0% Biden, 48.0% Trump
NV: 51.5% Biden, 45.5% Trump
NH: 52.0% Biden, 46.0% Trump
NC: 49.0% Trump, 48.5% Biden
OH: 51.0% Trump, 46.5% Biden
PA: 51.0% Biden, 47.0% Trump
SC: 53.0% Trump, 45.0% Biden
TX: 50.0% Trump, 47.5% Biden
WI: 50.5% Biden, 47.0% Trump

Overall, a slight reversion to Trump, but still advantage Biden for now. North Carolina is the biggest toss-up right now. If the race gets another 2-3% closer, Trump is back within 2016 range.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2020, 11:14:07 AM »

September Update



Biden/Harris: 319 ~51.5%
Trump/Pence: 219 ~46.5%

Safe Biden: 196
Likely Biden: 20
Lean Biden: 6
Toss-Up/Tilt Biden: 87! <-- Election Decided Here
Toss-Up/Tilt Trump: 31
Lean Trump: 56
Likely Trump: 19
Safe Trump: 112

Safe: >99% chance
Likely: 90-99% chance
Lean: 70-89.9% chance
Tilt: 50-69.9% chance

State Predictions (% Rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AK: 52.0% Trump, 43.5% Biden
AZ: 49.5% Biden, 47.5% Trump
CO: 53.0% Biden, 44.0% Trump
FL: 49.5% Biden, 48.5% Trump
GA: 50.0% Trump, 48.0% Biden
IA: 52.0% Trump, 45.5% Biden
ME: 51.5% Biden, 46.0% Trump
ME2: 51.5% Trump, 45.5% Biden
MI: 49.5% Biden, 48.0% Trump
MN: 50.0% Biden, 47.5% Trump
NE2: 49.0% Biden, 49.0% Trump
NV: 51.5% Biden, 45.5% Trump
NH: 51.0% Biden, 46.5% Trump
NM: 53.5% Biden, 43.5% Trump
NC: 49.5% Trump, 48.5% Biden
OH: 51.5% Trump, 46.0% Biden
PA: 49.5% Biden, 48.0% Trump
SC: 53.5% Trump, 44.5% Biden
TX: 50.5% Trump, 47.5% Biden
WI: 49.5% Biden, 48.5% Trump

Because of the lack of polling data from the media pollsters, I'm having to infer from the little amounts we have to multiple states. This may end up being inaccurate, and I may tighten it further or backtrack it later on, but right now this is my prediction. It is a downgrade from the election leaning towards Biden, to only tilting towards him. And despite what is a 100 EV victory prediction, it's a very tenuous edge in the electoral college. The tipping point in this election is looking to be Biden +3-5, and lots of EV's in that bracket to tip. We got a whiff of some of the same state polls that polled in 2016 and can compare them apples to apples, and thus far they show very similar results. The only reason I think Biden will end up doing better than Clinton right now is that he's doing better nationally.

% chance Biden wins PV: 90-95% (Likely Biden)
% chance Biden wins EC: 60-70% (Toss-Up/Tilt Biden)

In terms of approval: Trump needs to be at 45%+ in likely voter approval aggregates to be a favorite (in my interpretation) to win the EC. He's only behind by less than 1% in those metrics. Historically, incumbents punch 1-2% above their approval in their national vote share, typically because they have higher base turnout and enthusiasm. That'll be no exception with Trump and this year's wide gap in enthusiasm.

One thing I'm factoring in that some others aren't paying attention to: The Latino vote will likely be better for Trump this year than 2016. That's why I moved both Colorado and New Mexico to Likely D from Safe, they aren't really in play but they can be tightened if Trump does as well with Latinos as polls are showing (and in NM, the unpredictability of all the Johnson vote, despite claims to be Biden-leaning).

Black voters also look slightly better for Trump than in 2016, so an R trend there too. The trend among college degree-holding white suburbanites probably cancels out the trend among black voters in places like Georgia and North Carolina, despite their longterm but slow Democratic trends.

The 2018 elections are going to be the most accurate in predicting 2020 in the sunbelt - FL, GA, TX, AZ, and NV I think will vote very similarly to statewide races in '18.  Another prediction: The states with the worst polls - Iowa, Ohio, Missouri and Florida, much like 2018.

Here is my dire warning right now to the bubble on Atlas: Trump is 1 or 2 points away from winning this election. If you don't take this tightening of the race seriously, you will look like fools if or when Trump wins re-election.
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Xing
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« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2020, 10:44:14 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2020, 11:40:13 AM by Xing »



Biden/Harris - 319 EV (52%)
Trump/Pence - 219 EV (46%)

Presidential Rating: Lean D

Closest states

Alaska: Trump +8 (Likely R)
Arizona: Biden +2.5 (Lean D)
Florida: Biden +1 (Toss-Up/Tilt D)
Georgia: Trump +0.5 or less (Toss-Up/Tilt R) <- Closest state
Iowa: Trump +4.5 (Lean R)
Maine At-Large: Biden +5 (Likely D)
ME-02: Trump +7.5 (Likely R)
Michigan: Biden +3 (Lean D)
Minnesota: Biden +4.5 (Lean D)
NE-02: Biden +4.5 (Lean D)
Nevada: Biden +8 (Likely D)
New Hampshire: Biden +4 (Lean D)
North Carolina: Trump +1 (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
Ohio: Trump +4 (Lean R)
Pennsylvania: Biden +3.5 (Lean D)
Texas: Trump +2.5 (Lean R)
Wisconsin: Biden +3 (Lean D) <- Tipping Point

Basically, for Trump to win, he'd need another shift (and a bigger one) in his favor, or for a larger polling error than the one which we saw in 2016. While I suspect that some states like IA, NV, OH, and TX will have similar polling errors as what we saw in 2018, I don't think the polls will be that far off in MI/PA/WI (maybe Trump overperforms his polls there by a point or two.)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #40 on: September 02, 2020, 10:12:48 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2020, 01:27:28 PM by MT Treasurer »

Biden/Harris 53% -- 335 EV (WINNER)
Trump/Pence 45% -- 203 EV



Ratings:



Green: pure Toss-up; closest states
>30%: competitive but one party has the advantage
>40%: very unlikely to be competitive, even in a close race
>70%: safe under any scenario

Closest states

Alaska: Trump +7 (Likely R)
Arizona: Biden +6 (Likely D, FLIP)
Florida: Biden +2 (Lean D, FLIP)
Georgia: Biden +<0.5 (Toss-up/Tilt D, FLIP)
Iowa: Trump +5.5 (Likely R)
Kansas: Trump +8 (Likely R)
Maine At-Large: Biden +5 (Lean D)
ME-02: Trump +8 (Likely R)
Montana: Trump +8 (Safe R)
Michigan: Biden +4 (Lean D, FLIP) <- Tipping Point
Minnesota: Biden +4 (Lean D)
NE-02: Biden +6 (Likely D, FLIP)
Nevada: Biden +7 (Likely D)
New Hampshire: Biden +5.5 (Lean D)
North Carolina: Trump +<1 (Toss-Up/Tilt R)
Ohio: Trump +4.5 (Lean R)
Pennsylvania: Biden +4 (Lean D, FLIP)
South Carolina: Trump +7.5 (Safe R)
Texas: Trump +<1 (Toss-up/Tilt R)
Wisconsin: Biden +3.5 (Lean D, FLIP)

States with the strongest trends

D: Montana, Kansas
R: New Mexico, Arkansas

Democrats win the PV by about the same margin as the House popular vote in 2018. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a stable election as this one, and the big picture (which goes way beyond polling) couldn’t be any clearer at this point. Even before the pandemic, I think the outcome of this election was close to set in stone, especially against an opponent whose favorability ratings are nowhere near as abysmal as Clinton's in 2016.

Expect a continuation of 2012 -> 2016/2018 trends in most places, as Biden's victory is primarily fueled by a Republican collapse in urban and (especially) suburban areas and Democrats (with some exceptions) only make small inroads into rural/small-town America, including in the Midwest.
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Chips
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« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2020, 08:34:21 AM »



Biden: 278 electoral votes
Trump: 260 electoral votes

Closest states: FL, NC, PA.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #42 on: September 03, 2020, 11:02:51 AM »

Changed my map as well. I have now GA, FL, MI, IA, WI, NE-2 flipping while MN stays D on top of AZ and PA that i had already as flipping. I have NC, TX and OH as still R, and moved MT into lean R.

Went a bit more conservative, since this doesn't seem to be a blow-out as i initially expected or a narrow Trump win which i initially thought before COVID-19 broke out



NV D+4
PA D+3
MI D+3
NE-2 D+2
MN D+2
WI D+1
AZ D+1
FL D+1
GA R+1
NC R+2
OH R+3
ME-2 R+4
IA R+5
TX R+5

I still believe Florida will hold it's status as bellwether, because I don't believe Biden will win without Florida. If Trump wins Florida, he likely keeps AZ and WI and/or MN, unless it's razorthin close or my prediction is plain wrong and the Rust Belt swings more to the left than the south.
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« Reply #43 on: September 21, 2020, 05:00:09 PM »

So Florida has been going back and forth on the predictions, what's happening?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #44 on: September 22, 2020, 11:26:44 AM »

Trump approvals are at 48 percent not 39 percent but we are still in lockdown mode
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #45 on: September 22, 2020, 12:28:29 PM »

Trump approvals are at 48 percent not 39 percent but we are still in lockdown mode

Trump's approval is 42-44% average depending on which polls are used in the average, stop inflating his figures for your own bizarre narrative.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #46 on: September 23, 2020, 05:22:49 PM »

Trump approvals are at 48 percent not 39 percent but we are still in lockdown mode

Trump's approval is 42-44% average depending on which polls are used in the average, stop inflating his figures for your own bizarre narrative.

Just note the fact that Sabato and Cook are projecting a 269 to 291 election, that fits in with a 47 percent approval, not a 39 percent approval
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #47 on: October 01, 2020, 03:51:44 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #48 on: October 01, 2020, 08:33:31 PM »


Newbie, Trump is unlikely to win WI
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Turbo Flame
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« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2020, 09:07:53 PM »

I hope you're right. But, I'm not too confident that Biden can pull it off. He could, but it's no guarantee.
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