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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2020 Presidential Predictions (General)
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Latest 2020 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
WinstonOBoogie (D-ON)MapProfile 07-03 6 D +102 204 (-102) 334 (+102) 0 (0) 0
Horatii (R-MA)MapProfile 07-03 37 D +16 290 (-16) 248 (+16) 0 (0) 0
BushCountry (I-IN)MapProfile 07-03 33 D +124 182 (-124) 356 (+124) 0 (0) 0
Arch (D-WI)MapProfile 07-03 3 D +118 188 (-118) 350 (+118) 0 (0) 0
vt500ascott (D-TX)MapProfile 07-03 40 D +125 181 (-125) 357 (+125) 0 (0) 0
President_91 (I-ON)MapProfile 07-03 38 D +101 205 (-101) 333 (+101) 0 (0) 0
Ryangr_98 (R-CA)MapProfile 07-03 38 D +118 188 (-118) 350 (+118) 0 (0) 0
Spark498 (D-PA)MapProfile 07-03 66 D +65 241 (-65) 297 (+65) 0 (0) 0
Weatherman1228 (D-FL)MapProfile 07-03 4 D +143 163 (-143) 375 (+143) 0 (0) 0
JonathanSwift (R-GA)MapProfile 07-03 3 D +103 203 (-103) 335 (+103) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2020 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
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Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 28514 times)
ElectionAtlas
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« on: June 12, 2019, 11:19:29 am »
« edited: June 12, 2019, 11:23:01 am by Dave Leip »

Hi - the Presidential Predictions for 2020 President are now open.  Please let me know if you find any issues.
Thanks,
Dave
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Xeuma
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2019, 02:10:15 pm »

I need an "enable key" and the "resend code" button doesn't seem to have any effect.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2019, 04:28:32 pm »

Thanks -
Has your email address changed?  if not, check your spam box.

Otherwise, contact me at the email link above with your new email address and I'll change it for you.
Thanks,
Dave
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True Federalist
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2019, 03:23:04 am »

As I've done in past cycles, I intend to post from time to time on how changeable the current composite prediction is. We currently have 50 predictions. 5 new predictions could cause the following changes.


AZ R 40% > D 40%
ME CD 2 Lean R > Strong R
NH D 40% > D 50% ; Tossup > Lean D
VA Lean D > Strong D
VT D 50% > D 60%

Most of the most likely changes would be to make the map more Democratic

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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2019, 06:00:34 pm »

TRUMP WILL WIN BIG LEAGUE!!!



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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2019, 07:41:39 pm »


What's with Nebraska?
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2019, 10:17:34 pm »


I forgot to designate it at >90%.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2019, 05:45:31 pm »

Is this some kind of joke or are you trolling?
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2019, 12:49:54 pm »

It will be very very close no matter what. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump won with only 270 electoral votes!
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Laki
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2019, 03:19:34 pm »
« Edited: September 14, 2019, 03:24:49 pm by Councilman Laki »

Rural / Suburban + Urban divide growing further. Leaning towards Trump getting re-elected now, but really not sure. I have the feeling Minnesota (and Michigan again) would be the surprise state in 2020, while Maine stays Dem because IRV. Could change it a hundred times though. I think there's still room for Trump to expand in the Rust Belt, and that he'll have a good last year. It's feel like this is going to be 2012 but in reverse. Or some kind of disappointing 2004 for the Democrats. I think Biden or Warren will be the nominee, with the Dems nominating someone from Texas as their VP. I also feel like 2024 will be the year where De Santis (or Haley, Scott, Cruz or Pence but Pence will be the Biden of this year) will face Gretchen Whitmer, and that Whitmer will be the first female president of the USA.

Liz Warren / Julian Castro vs Donald Trump / Mike Pence



Senate map



Only real surprise is John James winning from Gary Peters.
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Angie
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2019, 10:06:20 am »
« Edited: September 21, 2019, 10:15:34 am by Angie »

TRUMP WINS... UNLESS:

1.  Angie drops out of 2020 US Congressional Race  because of 0 backing from GOP ( currently seeking Val Demings-D seat)

2. IF NO GOP SUPPORT:
THEN, SHE RUNS as a WRITE-IN for the Republican Presidential race as "ANGELA MARIE" to challenge Trump, she will take votes & by a HUGH lightening strike,

 ANGIE COULD WIN THE PRESIDENCY!!!
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MB
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2019, 01:15:22 pm »

TRUMP WINS... UNLESS:

1.  Angie drops out of 2020 US Congressional Race  because of 0 backing from GOP ( currently seeking Val Demings-D seat)

2. IF NO GOP SUPPORT:
THEN, SHE RUNS as a WRITE-IN for the Republican Presidential race as "ANGELA MARIE" to challenge Trump, she will take votes & by a HUGH lightening strike,

 ANGIE COULD WIN THE PRESIDENCY!!!
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2019, 10:09:24 pm »

TRUMP WINS... UNLESS:

1.  Angie drops out of 2020 US Congressional Race  because of 0 backing from GOP ( currently seeking Val Demings-D seat)

2. IF NO GOP SUPPORT:
THEN, SHE RUNS as a WRITE-IN for the Republican Presidential race as "ANGELA MARIE" to challenge Trump, she will take votes & by a HUGH lightening strike,

 ANGIE COULD WIN THE PRESIDENCY!!!




Amateur Atlas Poster Angela Marie (R-FL) / Mayor Shane Bemis (R-OR) ✓
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) / Fmr. HUD Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX)
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2019, 01:41:03 pm »

D +61   D: 293 (+61)   R: 245 (-61)





Several rating changes from prior predictions:

IA: Tossup => Lean R
ME-AL: Safe D => Tossup
ME-02: Tossup => Lean R
MI: Lean D => Tossup
MN: Lean D => Tossup
NE-02: Tossup => Lean R
NH: Lean D => Tossup
OH: Tossup => Lean R
PA: Lean D => Tossup
TX: Lean R => Tossup
VA: Lean D => Tossup
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MR. CORY BOOKER
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2019, 06:32:32 am »

WI and NH arent R Lean
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2019, 01:30:25 am »

What the heck. Here's my (way too early) prediction of a Trump vs. Biden race.



PV: Biden +2.5

AL: Trump 64-34
AK: Trump 52-40
AZ: Trump 48-47
AR: Trump 63-34
CA: Biden 64-32
CO: Biden 52-44
CT: Biden 56-41
DC: Biden 92-5
DE: Biden 58-39
FL: Trump 49-48
GA: Trump 50-48
HI: Biden 62-34
ID: Trump 65-29
IL: Biden 56-41
IN: Trump 57-40
IA: Trump 51-44
KS: Trump 55-40
KY: Trump 62-34
LA: Trump 58-39
ME-AL: Biden 49-47
ME-01: Biden 56-40
ME-02: Trump 53-42
MD: Biden 62-34
MA: Biden 62-35
MI: Trump 48-48
MN: Biden 49-46
MS: Trump 57-42
MO: Trump 58-38
MT: Trump 55-39
NE-AL: Trump 59-37
NE-01: Trump 57-39
NE-02: Trump 48-47
NE-03: Trump 76-21
NV: Biden 51-45
NH: Biden 48-47
NJ: Biden 56-40
NM: Biden 52-42
NY: Biden 61-35
NC: Trump 50-47
ND: Trump 64-31
OH: Trump 52-44
OK: Trump 66-31
OR: Biden 53-41
PA: Biden 49-48
RI: Biden 56-39
SC: Trump 54-42
SD: Trump 62-35
TN: Trump 63-33
TX: Trump 51-45
UT: Trump 60-35
VT: Biden 62-32
VA: Biden 53-44
WA: Biden 56-38
WV: Trump 70-25
WI: Trump 48-48
WY: Trump 72-24
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2019, 04:32:55 am »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 04:38:29 am by Neoliberal EDUCATED Kansan »

^To me, this looks more like a Biden +3-3.5 win with those margins in CA, VA, TX, NY, etc.

Anyway, my prediction:



Trump 274
Biden 264

PV: Biden +3

FL: Trump +<0.5
GA: Trump +<1
MI: Trump +1

WI: Trump +3.5 (wouldn’t even be surprised by a FL 2004 redux tbqh)
PA: Biden +1 (FLIP)
NC: Trump +2
AZ: Biden +1 (FLIP)
ME: Biden +<1
TX: Trump +4
OH: Trump +8
IA: Trump +8

MN: Biden +2
NV: Biden +5
NH: Biden +1.5

Not at all confident about this prediction.
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MR. CORY BOOKER
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2019, 10:58:40 pm »

^To me, this looks more like a Biden +3-3.5 win with those margins in CA, VA, TX, NY, etc.

Anyway, my prediction:



Trump 274
Biden 264

PV: Biden +3

FL: Trump +<0.5
GA: Trump +<1
MI: Trump +1

WI: Trump +3.5 (wouldn’t even be surprised by a FL 2004 redux tbqh)
PA: Biden +1 (FLIP)
NC: Trump +2
AZ: Biden +1 (FLIP)
ME: Biden +<1
TX: Trump +4
OH: Trump +8
IA: Trump +8

MN: Biden +2
NV: Biden +5
NH: Biden +1.5

Not at all confident about this prediction.

WI and MI wont vote R before AZ
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Laki
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« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2020, 05:57:17 am »



FL - Trump +1.5
GA - Trump +1
MI - Trump +1
WI - Trump +3.5
PA - Trump +1
NC - Trump +2
AZ - Trump +0.5
ME - Trump +0.5
TX - Trump +4
OH - Trump +11
IA - Trump +8
MN - Trump +1

NV - Biden +6
NH - Biden +1.5
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MR. CORY BOOKER
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2020, 09:11:05 am »

Dems are gonna win MN and ME
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here2view
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2020, 10:47:43 am »
« Edited: March 20, 2020, 10:52:20 am by here2view »



Biden: 289 EVs - 50% NPV
Trump: 249 EVs - 47% NPV

States decided by less than 5 points
Arizona: Biden +1
Wisconsin: Biden +1
Florida: Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump +1
NE-02: Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Biden +2
Georgia: Trump +2
Michigan: Biden +3
New Hampshire: Biden +4
Maine: Biden +5
Texas: Trump +5
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2020, 05:01:54 pm »



Current predictions for the swing states/districts:

Arizona: +2 Biden
Florida: +0.5 Biden
North Carolina: +0.5 Trump
Pennsylvania: +4 Biden
Wisconsin: +1 Biden

ME-02: +4 Trump
NE-02: +0.5 Trump
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #22 on: May 26, 2020, 04:55:18 pm »

Dunno if anybody has brought this up Dave or Virginia, but is there any way to access a page for each of the Maine and Nebraska congressional districts from the aggregate prediction site? Each state is given its own user breakdown but I would also love to see predictions for each of NE-2 and ME-2 especially. Thanks!
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Orwell
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« Reply #23 on: May 26, 2020, 09:51:22 pm »



IDK why but this is my guy feeling
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2020, 05:33:42 pm »

June 2020 Prediction. First estimates for the current situation.

AZ: 49% Biden, 47.5% Trump
CO: 53% Biden, 44% Trump
FL: 49% Biden, 49% Trump
GA: 50% Trump, 48% Biden
IA: 53% Trump, 44% Biden
ME: 50.5% Biden, 46.5% Trump
ME2: 54% Trump, 43% Biden
MI: 50% Biden, 47.5% Trump
MN: 51% Biden, 46.5% Trump
NE2: 51% Biden, 47% Trump
NV: 50.5% Biden, 46% Trump
NH: 51% Biden, 46.5% Trump
NC: 49% Trump, 49% Biden
OH: 52% Trump, 45% Biden
PA: 50% Biden, 48% Trump
TX: 50.5% Trump, 46.5% Biden
VA: 53.5% Biden, 44% Trump
WI: 49.5% Biden, 48.5% Trump

National PV: 51% Biden, 46% Trump

Biden: 319
Trump: 219
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