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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Predict trifecta status in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1438 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: June 10, 2019, 10:47:04 am »

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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2019, 12:47:28 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

Yeah and Parson losing + NC legislature flipping is hard to imagine
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2019, 05:14:05 pm »

NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



There is the possibility that Roy Cooper losses reelection. He won by only 10,000 votes so he can lose by 10,000 votes. North Carolina is a pure swing state. If the gridlock in North Carolina counties a Republican may win the election which would make the state a trifecta again. 

NC Dems are NOT going to be caught napping when they have an opportunity to exact revenge on the NC GOP by flipping one or both chambers of the NC General Assembly.

While the Republican Supermajority is gone, they still have a significant majority that won't flip any time soon.

Yeah, and dems have at least five very vulnerable districts to defend in the state house
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2019, 11:53:32 am »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2019, 02:45:16 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2019, 03:56:48 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.

NC Dems will win back control of the NC General Assembly sooner or later, I'm not crossing it off as a lost cause just yet.

Sooner or later is very vague, TBH I think that the TX House will flip before the NC House
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