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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Predict trifecta status in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1455 times)
lfromnj
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,894


« on: June 10, 2019, 12:38:02 am »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.
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lfromnj
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,894


« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2019, 09:43:02 pm »

Virginia is basically a sure thing.

Other than that, I would Montana (R trifecta) and Minnesota (D trifecta) are the most likely after 2020, maybe Louisiana too.

How many seats are up in both houses in VA?

all 140(40 Senate and 100 House)
All of them in MN too in 2020.
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