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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Predict trifecta status in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1458 times)
Nyvin
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,505
United States


« on: June 10, 2019, 08:46:40 am »

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   
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Nyvin
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,505
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2019, 10:43:57 am »

New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


New Hampshire is not an "obvious choice" or likely to become a Democratic trifecta, Sununu is running for reelection and it is highly unlikely that he loses in 2020.

I wouldn't be so sure.   NH gov doesn't have the same kind of big profile other state govs have.   He's definitely not that popular with state party officials.   I personally think the last two candidates the NH dems ran for gov were both flops too.   

I wouldn't be surprised to see Sununu go down next year.
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Nyvin
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,505
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2019, 12:24:09 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.
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Nyvin
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,505
United States


« Reply #3 on: June 10, 2019, 01:26:07 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

Yeah and Parson losing + NC legislature flipping is hard to imagine

Is NC still getting new legislative maps?  I remember hearing about that a while ago,  but it kinda faded out of attention now.
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Nyvin
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,505
United States


« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2019, 05:07:06 pm »


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

As I said in my post, there was a court decision that threw out a bunch of MI congressional, state senate, and state house districts. But the odds of the decision actually being enacted are low - see supreme court. So if they do, there will be a elections for the full state senate per the courts ruling, and dems will liekly gain it considering the remap potential. But if not, then no.

NC trifecta also isn't happening. Even though there similarly is a low chance for a remap, dems are constrained gain wise. The west of the state saw a dems mostly hit their geographic ceiling, and the east of the state has dems constrained by the necessity of AA seats. The dems are near their ceiling geographically, with all of the gains coming around the urban cores in 2018. A remap raises that ceiling especially in the senate, but like in florida, something needs to give for a flip.

Parson losing and Republican flips in New England are possible, but you need an vibrant imagination, at least right now, to see it happening.

Oh wow, I didn't realize MI's court case would trigger new elections for the state senate.  In that case it's totally possible to flip if SCOTUS lets it go through.
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