Is a Democratic supermajority possible in GA within the next 30 years?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I was playing around with some numbers trying to see how our population would look in 2022 for GA-GOV and came across this interactive map: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional/map-watch-georgia-racial-and-ethnic-changes-unfold/UWVTVqmkLK9wU9DC6jv6KL/

Basically maps out GA's demographic trajectory from 1990 to 2050.

This is what our state would look like in 2048:



46% Non-Hispanic White, 30% Black, 16% Hispanic, 8% Asian

Some of our biggest populated counties in Metro Atlanta will have insurmountable super-majorities of non-whites:

Cobb will be 70% non-white, Fulton 64% non-white, Douglas 70% non-white, DeKalb 75% non-white, Clayton 98% non-white, Rockdale 79% non-white, Gwinnett 86(!)% non-white (and the most populated county in our state).... Even Hall County will be majority non-white even though I'm sure whites will be a majority of voters.

Is this a Democratic supermajority in the GA State House? (NO GERRYMANDERING!)

This is assuming there have been NO major changes between the parties other than the R's softening on some stances to attract non-black people of color.

Let's assume that  GA Dems are getting 30% of the white vote as the increased diversity pushes suburban whites to the left. GOP is getting 25-30% of the non-white vote as they make huge gains with Asians and Hispanics... for example Fulton will be a quarter Asian and Gwinnett/Cobb will be a quarter Hispanic. Expect a lot of elected moderate R's in the metro to come from those communities.

How will the political landscape in South GA look?

What would a statewide map look like at this point?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

If we assume the political alignment doesn't change much, or at all, between now and 2048, then yes.


Georgia would probably be about as Democratic as Maryland or Massachusetts are today, by this point.

However, I also think Republicans will have to try much harder to appeal to Hispanics, Asians, and College Educated whites by 2048, so unless the GOP just gives up on winning elections, Georgia would probably be much closer than its demographics would suggest.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Also, I too would be very interested in seeing a county map for what a hypothetical 2048 statewide election in Georgia would look like, but I myself am not knowledgeable enough about Georgia politics and demographics to make one, so if anyone would want to make a rough estimate I'd love to see that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

By then not only will there have been a realignment  but we will be full blown into the era similar to how 1992-2006 was during the Neo-Liberal Era.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think it is possible much sooner than that frankly.

[lfromnj]

I don't think a super majority will be possible without Democrat Gerrymandering ala Illinois. I do believe that rural blacks will have to move moderately right maybe around 20-25% GOP? although urban blacks form the majority so blacks are still overwhelmingly Democrat so this creates a self pack situation. Illinois Democrats really utilized gerrymandering the black areas as thin as possible to maximize a lot of areas.

[Bidenworth2020]

I don't think a super majority will be possible without Democrat Gerrymandering ala Illinois. I do believe that rural blacks will have to move moderately right maybe around 20-25% GOP? although urban blacks form the majority so blacks are still overwhelmingly Democrat so this creates a self pack situation. Illinois Democrats really utilized gerrymandering the black areas as thin as possible to maximize a lot of areas.

?? We have seen absolutely no indication rural blacks will trend r( the opposite could potentially be the case)

[RINO Tom]

I don't think a super majority will be possible without Democrat Gerrymandering ala Illinois. I do believe that rural blacks will have to move moderately right maybe around 20-25% GOP? although urban blacks form the majority so blacks are still overwhelmingly Democrat so this creates a self pack situation. Illinois Democrats really utilized gerrymandering the black areas as thin as possible to maximize a lot of areas.

?? We have seen absolutely no indication rural blacks will trend r( the opposite could potentially be the case)

BUT THEYRE RURAL !!

Lol

(Agreed, BTW)

[Del Tachi]

These projections seem unlikely.

Fulton County more Asian than Black in 2050?  Henry County as majority White?  Gwinnett less White than DeKalb?

Looks like a bad case of the fallacy of extrapolation.   

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

These projections seem unlikely.

Fulton County more Asian than Black in 2050?  Henry County as majority White?  Gwinnett less White than DeKalb?

Looks like a bad case of the fallacy of extrapolation.   

The statewide numbers seem dead-on, but some of the individual county numbers may indeed be off. if it's a case of just extrapolating current trends until 2048, there's a wide margin of error with that.