Michigan : Trump loses by wide margins

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Can anyone explain why Trump always underperforms his approvals in midwestern state polls? This same poll shows -8 approval (at 44%) but with -12 margins against Biden/Sanders (at 41%). Doesn't make sense. Are there really voters who approve of Trump but will vote for Democrats because they just like them better than Trump? lol

Not that this matters greatly, but it's such a consistent phenomenon that it's worth talking about.

I could see a very select people liking what he's doing but not wanting to feel culpable for everything by admitting to wanting to vote for him. I don't think that fully explains a consistent trend, but it is the most reasonable thing I can imagine. The alternative is that they approve of the job but personally dislike him and would rather have someone more respectable.

[SN2903]

These numbers do not mean anything this early. Macomb is trending R big time while Oakland is trending D. Most of the state is trending R besides Oakland.

[Frenchrepublican]

These numbers do not mean anything this early. Macomb is trending R big time while Oakland is trending D. Most of the state is trending R besides Oakland.

Kent + Ottawa + Washtenaw + Wayne counties are all trending D and I doubt that MI will trend R in 2020

[pbrower2a]

The Democrats' voter-drive database was hacked, so the electoral trend in Presidential elections may not be reliable.

[Senator Cris]

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1146840634902208512

[ElectionsGuy]

I hope Amash will come to his senses and run instead of inevitably losing his district in 2020.

[UWS]

So if Amash does indeed step aside, uniting the Republican vote, Trump would get 49 %, surpassing Biden's 45 %. I hope Amash knows his political career would be screwed forever if he challenges Trump and instead runs fully for re-election in his district.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

So if Amash does indeed step aside, uniting the Republican vote, Trump would get 49 %, surpassing Biden's 45 %. I hope Amash knows his political career would be screwed forever if he challenges Trump and instead runs fully for re-election in his district.

Yeah, no.

[Skye]

That is a poll from May, and has already been posted here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=321505.0

[Frenchrepublican]

So if Amash does indeed step aside, uniting the Republican vote, Trump would get 49 %, surpassing Biden's 45 %. I hope Amash knows his political career would be screwed forever if he challenges Trump and instead runs fully for re-election in his district.

People who would vote for Amash don’t like Trump, dude. I guess that in a Trump/Biden/Amash race Michigan would vote like this
Biden : 49%
Trump : 45%
Amash : 6%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yea Amash actually helps Trump.

Think Anderson in 1980. Anderson was a Republican Congressman, but he ended up splitting the liberal vote and thus allowing Reagan to win many states on pluralities in the North, including New York state.

Amash would draw most of his support from college educated whites that hate Trump and thus would deny them to the Democratic nominee.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Polls were fairly accurate last time given the margin of error. Combine that with the fact that they have improved since then (evidenced by their much greater success in 2018, especially in the House elections/popular vote) and the fact that many of the final polls took place right as the Comey effect was being felt, and Trump’s approval rating has remained consistently dismal... There is certainly no rational reason to discount them.

Polls were accurate nationally in 2016 within the MOE, not at the state level. Polls had Republicans inflated in Nevada, where Hispanics are routinely under represented going back to 2010. And likewise in several election cycles, Republicans have been underestimated in the Midwest going back to 2010. Even in 2018, Republicans held OH and IA Governorships, in spite of the polling and did much better than expected in Wisconsin Gov and MI Senate. In Indiana, Rasmussen and Fox News had Donnelly ahead of Braun and Braun won. Ohio Senate was also much closer than the polling averages suggested by as much as 6 or 7 points.