Emerson-NC: Trump -12 to +2

[Gass3268]

Source

[S019]

Memerson thinks NV is Likelier to vote R than NC, what else is new, from their trash polling

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is still a purple state even if it isn't a tipping point, Dems have small leads in all 3 races, Sen, Gov and Prez

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol

What are they smoking ?

So Trump is losing by 12 against Biden but he he wins by 2 against Kamala Harris !! #retail politics

[GeorgiaModerate]

This sample has about 54% with a college degree, which seems pretty high.  Does anyone have the educational breakdown in the last NC election?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This sample has about 54% with a college degree, which seems pretty high.  Does anyone have the educational breakdown in the last NC election?

48% in 2016. (16% Post-grad, 32% Bachelor's alone)

[tagimaucia]

Emerson takes a lot of crap on this board but weren't they hands down the most accurate pollster in 2018?

Then again, Trafalgar killed it in 2016 and has had very mixed results since, so who knows...

[538Electoral]

This simply indicates NC will once again be a battleground state.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

These wacky results notwithstanding, North Carolina is a tossup and will be very competitive in 2020.

[Zaybay]

Emerson takes a lot of crap on this board but weren't they hands down the most accurate pollster in 2018?

Then again, Trafalgar killed it in 2016 and has had very mixed results since, so who knows...

Emerson has a habit of putting out widely outrageous polls for almost the entire cycle and then, 2 days before the election, putting out an extremely close result to the real deal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Based on 2016, exit polls, Trump probably wins NC, but Cooper can help Dems downballot,  but he will win by 3-4 points, not 15

[Alben Barkley]

But this board told me NC was now safe R, even though GA and AZ are toss-ups and NC was closer than either in 2016 and has actually voted Democratic much more recently.

[Xing]

Another example of why we shouldn't take early polls seriously.

[Frenchrepublican]

But this board told me NC was now safe R, even though GA and AZ are toss-ups and NC was closer than either in 2016 and has actually voted Democratic much more recently.

Nobody is saying that NC is safe, but Biden is not winning NC by 12, NC is a right of center state

[eric82oslo]

But this board told me NC was now safe R, even though GA and AZ are toss-ups and NC was closer than either in 2016 and has actually voted Democratic much more recently.

Nobody is saying that NC is safe, but Biden is not winning NC by 12, NC is a right of center state

Agree. I have North Carolina currently being 5.6% more R-leaning than the current tipping point of Nevada.

As comparison, Arizona is 3.7% more R, while Georgia is 7.8% more R-leaning than Nevada.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

B-b-but the Sunbelt hates socialism!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bulls***! Even if a Democrat does end up beating Trump in North Carolina, by some miracle, it will be by maybe 1 or 2 points at most. Regardless, Trump is favored here. This state is fool's gold for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should spend money other than FL, NC and AZ, but OH is worth the buy in

[Karpatsky]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1135943622044635145

[Matty]

What does Mturk mean?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What does Mturk mean?

The online component of the sample:

Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=527) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=405).

[Matty]

What does Mturk mean?

The online component of the sample:

Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=527) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=405).

Why does Cohn poo-poo that?

[TarHeelDem]

But this board told me NC was now safe R, even though GA and AZ are toss-ups and NC was closer than either in 2016 and has actually voted Democratic much more recently.

This. Can we finally put the "Titanium R NC" meme to bed now?

[Sestak]

That's...quite a gap.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What does Mturk mean?

The online component of the sample:

Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=527) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=405).

Why does Cohn poo-poo that?

I believe that it's because it's not a good random sample of the population.