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Poll
Question: Did John F. Kennedy win the Anchorage vote in 1960?
#1
yes
#2
no
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Anchorage  (Read 602 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: May 31, 2019, 09:27:16 AM »
« edited: May 31, 2019, 09:53:49 AM by Ἅιδης »

Anchorage is one of the most Republican cities in the whole country, making Alaska, besides Oklahoma and New Hampshire. an "inverted" state where the Democrats (used to) rule the rural areas, with the GOP dominating the urban sites.
Alas, there are only very few borough maps about Alaska elections. The oldest one on Wikipedia only dates back to 1992!!! 😕
Do you think Kennedy, Johnson or Humphrey might have won that city? They are the only possible options, as even Obama didn't manage to win it either time.

1960:

Richard Nixon            50.94%
John F. Kennedy        49.06%

1964:

Lyndon B. Johnson    65.91%
Barry Goldwater        34.09%

1968:

Richard Nixon            45.28%
Hubert Humphrey      42.65%
George Wallace          12.07%



Edit:

I've edited a poll of mine for the very first time - thanks to Virginia. 🤗
ElectionsGuy has already acquaint with the pertinent '64 and '68 election information.
Thus, only 1960 remains unclear.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2019, 09:32:04 AM »

Here's your answer

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_United_States_presidential_election_in_Alaska

Quote
At a more local level, all boroughs and census areas voted for Johnson, and the relatively populous boroughs of Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna, Fairbanks North Star, Ketchikan Gateway and Kodiak Island have never voted for a Democratic candidate since[3] – although Matanuska-Susitna was the most populous amongst fifteen county-equivalents who gave a plurality to Ross Perot in 1992.[4] The Aleutians East and Aleutians West have also not voted Democratic since.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2019, 09:46:05 AM »

Here's your answer

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_United_States_presidential_election_in_Alaska

Quote
At a more local level, all boroughs and census areas voted for Johnson, and the relatively populous boroughs of Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna, Fairbanks North Star, Ketchikan Gateway and Kodiak Island have never voted for a Democratic candidate since[3] – although Matanuska-Susitna was the most populous amongst fifteen county-equivalents who gave a plurality to Ross Perot in 1992.[4] The Aleutians East and Aleutians West have also not voted Democratic since.

Okay. Thanks for that piece of information. Only 1960 still remains a mystery.
Interesting too, how outdated that Wiki article is:

Quote
The Aleutians East and Aleutians West have also not voted Democratic since.

The Aleutians West Census Area voted Democrat both in 2012 and 2016.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2019, 01:11:37 AM »

Anchorage is one of the most Republican cities in the whole country, making Alaska, besides Oklahoma and New Hampshire. an "inverted" state where the Democrats (used to) rule the rural areas, with the GOP dominating the urban sites.
Alas, there are only very few borough maps about Alaska elections. The oldest one on Wikipedia only dates back to 1992!!! 😕
Do you think Kennedy, Johnson or Humphrey might have won that city? They are the only possible options, as even Obama didn't manage to win it either time.

1960:

Richard Nixon            50.94%
John F. Kennedy        49.06%

1964:

Lyndon B. Johnson    65.91%
Barry Goldwater        34.09%

1968:

Richard Nixon            45.28%
Hubert Humphrey      42.65%
George Wallace          12.07%



Edit:

I've edited a poll of mine for the very first time - thanks to Virginia. 🤗
ElectionsGuy has already acquaint with the pertinent '64 and '68 election information.
Thus, only 1960 remains unclear.

By my estimates, Nixon won modern-day Anchorage in 1960 and 1968. Johnson won it (and every AK county equivalent) in 1964.

But these, like any AK county equivalent calculations, are just estimates. Allocating the absentee/question/early vote is an inexact science.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2019, 01:16:35 AM »

Here's your answer

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_United_States_presidential_election_in_Alaska

Quote
At a more local level, all boroughs and census areas voted for Johnson, and the relatively populous boroughs of Anchorage, Matanuska-Susitna, Fairbanks North Star, Ketchikan Gateway and Kodiak Island have never voted for a Democratic candidate since[3] – although Matanuska-Susitna was the most populous amongst fifteen county-equivalents who gave a plurality to Ross Perot in 1992.[4] The Aleutians East and Aleutians West have also not voted Democratic since.

Okay. Thanks for that piece of information. Only 1960 still remains a mystery.
Interesting too, how outdated that Wiki article is:

Quote
The Aleutians East and Aleutians West have also not voted Democratic since.

The Aleutians West Census Area voted Democrat both in 2012 and 2016.

True - perhaps due to the closure of the military base at Adak.

It's also not clear to me that Perot won Mat-Su in 1992, like Wikipedia claims. That vote was close. It depends on how you allocate the absentee & question votes, which aren't broken down by precinct - and that's an inexact science.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2019, 07:49:22 AM »

By my estimates, Nixon won modern-day Anchorage in 1960 and 1968. Johnson won it (and every AK county equivalent) in 1964.

But these, like any AK county equivalent calculations, are just estimates. Allocating the absentee/question/early vote is an inexact science.

Is that your own blog?
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2019, 08:29:07 AM »
« Edited: June 01, 2019, 08:38:13 AM by cinyc »

By my estimates, Nixon won modern-day Anchorage in 1960 and 1968. Johnson won it (and every AK county equivalent) in 1964.

But these, like any AK county equivalent calculations, are just estimates. Allocating the absentee/question/early vote is an inexact science.

Is that your own blog?

It’s my diary on RRHelectons.com, which is the Republican equivalent of Daily Kos Elections. I also posted the same article on one of my websites, thecinyc.com, and partially here, too.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2019, 05:04:06 PM »

It’s my diary on RRHelectons.com, which is the Republican equivalent of Daily Kos Elections. I also posted the same article on one of my websites, thecinyc.com, and partially here, too.

Why does your 1992 map differ so heavily from the Wikipedia map? For example, you both have Perot winning different boroughs.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2019, 05:11:49 PM »

It’s my diary on RRHelectons.com, which is the Republican equivalent of Daily Kos Elections. I also posted the same article on one of my websites, thecinyc.com, and partially here, too.

Why does your 1992 map differ so heavily from the Wikipedia map? For example, you both have Perot winning different boroughs.
There could be an error in my data, an error in Wikipeida's data or (most likely) differences in how/if we allocated the absentee & question votes. Mat-Su was very close, and there's no real way of allocating the absentees/question/early votes, since they're only allocated by House District, not precinct, and House Districts cross county equivalent lines.

It could also depend on whether you allocate 1 precinct that's either in Denali Borough or one of the Census Areas. It's very close to the border and crosses borough/census area lines. IIRC, I put it in with Denali, but a very good argument could be made that it belongs with the census area.

Bottom line: There are no real answers and no real way to reliably count AK by county equivalent. Everything is an estimate.
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