Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[jaymichaud]

So after Bibi is gone from politics and Gantz has served his PM term, what does the future hold for Blue and White? Will the 3 factions break up?

[Oryxslayer]

So after Bibi is gone from politics and Gantz has served his PM term, what does the future hold for Blue and White? Will the 3 factions break up?

One step at a time.

[Walmart_shopper]

So after Bibi is gone from politics and Gantz has served his PM term, what does the future hold for Blue and White? Will the 3 factions break up?

I think we are hoping that they make it to next week, let alone 2023 or 2027.

For what it's worth, I don't see any way Blue and White will agree to join a Haredi government with Netanyahu as pm.  So the party should be fine. Whether the country even lasts, though, probably determines a lot on whether Liberman throws us all under the bus and joins Bibi's horror show right wing bloc. I don't expect that to happen, but it is Liberman, after all.

[Hnv1]

Likud activists are starting to threaten violence and intimidate the legal system...

I always anticipate Bibi will burn down the house. If necessary there will blood on the streets. Thankfully Israel is a country where the army is firmly centrist. But there will be minor violence before he falls

[Walmart_shopper]

Benny Ganz's mandate to assemble a government expires on Wednesday. Here is an update on where things stand.

First, it appears that the attorney general could formally announce the indictment of Netanyahu as early as Tuesday. The only real question is whether Case 4000 will include a bribery charge (quid pro qup for favorable media coverage). While this may not actually have any immediate political impact, it could (especially if bribery is included in the charge sheet) give sufficient political cover for a left wing minority government supported by the Joint List. This is especially the case given Mandelblit's reported decision that Netanyahu should not serve as interim prime minister under indictment.

Sonewhat surprisingly, a left wing minority government with outside Arab support remains a real option and the week's mini war with Islamic Jihad did not bury its liklihood as Netanyahu had perhaps hoped. It is reported that the Likud is deeply concerned about a minority government and continues to do everything possible to prevent it.

Nevertheless, Raviv Drucker of Channel 13 reported last night that Liberman was ready to ostensibly support a minority government with the Joint List support, but the right flank of Blue and White (especially Hauser and Hendel) got cold feet. One Joint List leader yesterday reiterated the fact that his party would be happy to support a minority government, but that "it is up to Blue and White." Democratic Camp leader Nitzan Horowitz echoed these sentiments and blamed Blue and White.

Gantz himself stated that this arrangement is still a possibility, and Liberman continues to not rule it out. The pressure on Gantz is thick on both sides. Ultimately, as leader of the main opposition party that campaigned to replace Netanyahu, it would seem that Gantz ought to just announce a minority government and force his own party to bring his government down.

One option being talked about is a JL-backed minority government that lasts just long enough to fill ministerial positions and overthrow Bibi, but then quickly dissolve and go to new elections. Such an arrangement is risky for Blue and White, but would force a Likud civil war that that party likely would suffer from.

Netanyahu and the right wing, who really have nothing to lose at this point, are making absurd overtures for a Netanyahu-led unity government with Haredim. Netanyahu is even insisting on immunity. This is a non-starter, of course, and pushes the country towards elections.

The only wild card is a minority government. The entire political system estimated that Liberman and Blue and White wouldn't possibly have the political courage and swallow the risk of forming one. That appears to be a correct assessment. But the next few days will he critical and a leftist minority government could be thrown together in a hurry if Blue and White finds the courage to do so.

Netanyahu will meet tomorrow with Liberman, no doubt to promise him the world in return for joining him or at least opposing a minority government. But I think Liberman has to realize that he may never be more powerful than he is this week, and ue could do more in one day right now than he could for 4 years as defense minister or even in a pm rotation agreement with Netanyahu

A new poll from the usually wrong Yiarael Hayom shows the left with 58 seats, the right with 53 seata, and Liberman with 9 seats in a new election. That tends to validate the conventional wiadom that it really is the right wing that stands to lose the most in a new election. But that may be the only card they have left to play.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Benny Ganz's mandate to assemble a government expires on Wednesday.

...

the attorney general could formally announce the indictment of Netanyahu as early as Tuesday.

well, that's some dramatic timing

[Hnv1]

It appears it was the right wing of B&W that prevented a minority government when YB agreed to abstain. If it does come to a third election cycle I hope Hendel and Hauser find themselves out of the list.

[Walmart_shopper]

It appears it was the right wing of B&W that prevented a minority government when YB agreed to abstain. If it does come to a third election cycle I hope Hendel and Hauser find themselves out of the list.

I think it's outrageous. Netanyahu, who has partnered with Kahanists, anti-Zionists, theocrats, and ethnic cleansers, possibly just killed an innocent family of 8 and nearly started a war for political purposes, and Blue and White can't find the stamina to let Arabs support them from the outside? Blue and White is a party with mostly leftist voters, a majority of whom support a minority government, and their campaign was basically entirely about beating Netanyahu. Now the opportunity for that and so much more presents itself and Blue and White trips on their own laces. It's embarassing.

The reality is, though, that there are ways around Hauzer and Hendel, and if Gantz wanta a minoriry government he can dare his own party to bring it down. The ball is still in party leadership's hands.

And, for what it's worth, while the Blue and White right flank might have tripped the minority government option up a bit, it still appears that Gantz is seriously considering it and it remains a viable option.

[Walmart_shopper]

As much as I love making predictions, I have to confess I have no good idea how this will all turn out next week. My hunch is that the odds stand like this:

Right wing government with Liberman: 5%
Likud-Blue and White secular unity government: 10%
Broad unity government with Haredim: 25%
Leftist minority government supported by Joint List: 30%
New election: 30%.

[Walmart_shopper]

Benny Ganz's mandate to assemble a government expires on Wednesday.

...

the attorney general could formally announce the indictment of Netanyahu as early as Tuesday.

well, that's some dramatic timing

I kind of doubt it'll happen so soon, though. Mandelblit is unbearably cautious, and injecting himself right into the thick of the political process would be umcharacteristic. But we'll see.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sefiova/status/1195657813416173569

So Blue and White really may be going all-in on the minority government option. The bottom part of the tweet questions what Liberman will do, and while it's true that he hasn't explicitly ruled in supporting a lefist minority government, he also has done everything possible to avoid ruling it out. Maybe thar's part of the bluff. Maybe not.

[Hnv1]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sefiova/status/1195657813416173569

So Blue and White really may be going all-in on the minority government option. The bottom part of the tweet questions what Liberman will do, and while it's true that he hasn't explicitly ruled in supporting a lefist minority government, he also has done everything possible to avoid ruling it out. Maybe thar's part of the bluff. Maybe not.

They have nothing to lose by this move. If it doesn’t succeed will go to the 21 days period as planned

[Oryxslayer]

Essentially we have reached the 11th hour, and like I predicted on election night, now is when Israel will get a govt, if at all. If Bibi goes on trial next week than Likud could very well do an about face in less than 24 hours, but it would be interesting to see the Grand Coalition form with one member in the depths of civil war.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Likud is in a panic about the formation of a minority government.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaphnaLiel/status/1195698762770984967

Nobody seems quite sure what Liberman is going to do, although he is surely having fun keeping everyone guessing. It's also not clear what the actual minority government would even look like (who is on, who is out, and who supports and who abstains on confidence motions).

[Walmart_shopper]

A lot of chatter suggests that Liberman will sit in opposition, but will allow Gantz's leftist (Blue and White, Labor, Meretz) government to he sworn in. It may be sold as a transitional government that will only last a few months until Netanyahu is deeper into the legal process (and therefore presumably unable to continue as Likud leader).

A lot of major legislation can be passed on religous issues that would pacify Liberman, even in just a few months. But I think Blue and White would prefer bringing Likud on board post-Netanyahu to accomplish that.

So things are possibly moving fast. The emotional roller coaster of the last year in politics here has been almost too much to bear, as evidenced by the two threads on this site. As much as the formation of such a government would be a shocking, hopeful, and gratifying result, I refuse to believe it until I see it.

Gantz meeta President Rivlin later, perhaps to unveil his minority government. Ministerial positions would be given out tomorrow night and Monday. And the swearing in would be Tuesday or Wednesday (possibly on the heels of the Netanyahu indictment announcement).

Or maybe the whole things falls apart due to the right wimg racism, left wing pettiness, and centrist cowardice that has come to define Israeli politics.

[Hnv1]

Bibi will be sh**tting himself. Expect full blown racism by the right in the next 4 days.

Anyway we have 44 seats minus the idiotic 2 from B&W, add 13 for the JL and we have 55 and Balad and the communists Kassif and Saliman might vote against. the right bloc is 55 meaning the vote needs 56 for.

meaning Gantz can spare only one member of his bloc abstaining, if one of them votes against then he needs 57.

that is all considering YB will only abstain.

[Famous Mortimer]

Bibi will be sh**tting himself. Expect full blown racism by the right in the next 4 days.

Anyway we have 44 seats minus the idiotic 2 from B&W, add 13 for the JL and we have 55 and Balad and the communists Kassif and Saliman might vote against. the right bloc is 55 meaning the vote needs 56 for.

meaning Gantz can spare only one member of his bloc abstaining, if one of them votes against then he needs 57.

that is all considering YB will only abstain.

Who are the 2 idiots from B&W?

[Walmart_shopper]

Bibi will be sh**tting himself. Expect full blown racism by the right in the next 4 days.

Anyway we have 44 seats minus the idiotic 2 from B&W, add 13 for the JL and we have 55 and Balad and the communists Kassif and Saliman might vote against. the right bloc is 55 meaning the vote needs 56 for.

meaning Gantz can spare only one member of his bloc abstaining, if one of them votes against then he needs 57.

that is all considering YB will only abstain.

Who are the 2 idiots from B&W?

Eh, Hendel and Hauzer are not going to sabotage Gantz here. Hendel just tweeted something straight out of party HQ about the danger of Netanyahu and the eventuality of a good government. If there is a vote on the government I don't think there will be a revolt in the party.

[Hnv1]

Still can’t see how Balad are coming around

[jaymichaud]

Still can’t see how Balad are coming around

They'll never willingly be part of a government, regardless of who leads it.

[Walmart_shopper]

Isn't it a big risk for Blue and White admitting they're going for a minority government supported by the Joint List without a deal with Liberman already in place? What's the upshot here for Blue and White? The risk, of course, is that you're off to new elections with "Bibi or Tibi" tattooed on your head. So either Liberman is already on board, or it's 4-D political jujitsu and Gantz is using this as cover for entering with Netanyahu. Otherwise this seems loke a really weird move. The problem is that I don't see any evidence that either Bibi or Liberman have made a deal here.

[Hnv1]

Still can’t see how Balad are coming around

They'll never willingly be part of a government, regardless of who leads it.

They don’t need to be in just vote for it

[America Needs R'hllor]

The big key here is still Lieberman. I don't see the right wing of KL being able to oppose their leader, not on something so crucial. But Lieberman does have a lot to lose from his partially racist electorate in the next election, so I still have a hard time seeing him allowing a minority government to be sworn in.

[Walmart_shopper]

The big key here is still Lieberman. I don't see the right wing of KL being able to oppose their leader, not on something so crucial. But Lieberman does have a lot to lose from his partially racist electorate in the next election, so I still have a hard time seeing him allowing a minority government to be sworn in.

When they can get married without having to give dna samples to old rabbis in 18th Century suits, when they can buy a loaf of bread for lunch on Saturday morning, and when their olim hadashim parents can more easily get a decent pension, I doubt anyone will care that old Yvette and the boys went out for a bacon burger when confidence votes were held.

Liberman, on the other hand, will have to eat his own words to agree to a minority government.  

While YB voters may indeed be among the country's most racist, such racism is a surprisingly small component of why YB supporters support YB. They may hate the Arabs, but they probably hate the Haredim more.

[America Needs R'hllor]

According to channel 12, Lieberman will most likely oppose a minority government. Welp, that sucks.