NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hopefully he gets a better primary challenger this time around.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It took me two or three days after Benjamin's resignation to find out there were any issues with him, and I live in Albany County. He is not a high-profile figure at all. The idea that he'll drag down Hochul in a general election more than six months from now in which he is definitely not going to be her running mate is absurd.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just a friendly reminder that Cuomo can still run as an Independent and could win because of name ID.

He could, sure, but the window of opportunity for getting a serious campaign infrastructure off the ground is rapidly closing, and just because everybody in New York knows who Cuomo is doesn't mean there are many people who are willing to vote for him again, especially if he doesn't have the magic D next to his name.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Delgado's no lightweight. He's a popular "constituency Congressman" who represents a diverse Republican-leaning district including outer New York City suburbs, poor Rust Belt-y cities along the Hudson, and lots and lots of Upstate rurals. I don't approve of pulling him out of the House, numbers there being what they are, but he's not the nobody that several people in this thread seem to be assuming he is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

Sure, but NYC is also an area where Hochul and Dems severely underperformed Cuomo 2018. Even in 2014, Cuomo won by 14 pts.

Cuomo had appeal to a lot of ethnic enclaves of NY due to being Italian, but was toxic upstate plus Rs ran Molinaro who was a white boy from upstate.

This is a sort of stereotyped explanation, although it's not completely baseless. The nature of the campaign Zeldin ran--crime crime crime, and extremely aggressively going after Hochul on some genuinely heavy-handed COVID and consumer regulatory stuff as well--had at least as much to do with it. Street crime is the sort of issue in the NYC area that Republicans keep wishing it would be again in the rest of the country. There's a reason it took a while for stop-and-frisk to be widely seen as redounding to Bloomberg's discredit.