NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Smash255]

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.

Agree with the conclusion but the reasoning is partly wrong; Pataki got elected Governor running as a fairly firm conservative.

Pataki was pretty much a generic northeast R and was pro-choice.  Zeldin is a generic Trump R and is not.

[Smash255]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

One thing that is pretty amazing is Westchester was only 5 points more R than Queens (+21 to +26) and only 4.5 points more R than Obama/Romney 2012