NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Respect and Compassion]

If Youngkin was able to get ~50.5% over Trump's 44% in Virginia (6.5% increase), I think the NY GOP candidate can get 44-45% over Trump's ~37.7% (close to an 8% increase). Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx swung right in 2020. So did Manhattan, albeit marginally. Staten Island swung a tiny bit left. Upstate and the suburbs swung left by more. The issue is, Hochul isn't particularly strong Upstate and in the suburbs, and I can see the parts of NYC that swung right in 2020 swinging right even more in 2022. I wouldn't think it would be enough for the Republican candidate to get to the high 40s, but the mid 40s seems like a reasonable cap. There is a certain amount of moderate nonwhite 2020-Democrat (particularly hispanics and asians) and moderate white 2020-Democrat voters who could hypothetically be swayed to a GOP candidate, in contrast to black voters and white liberals.

I haven't done a thorough analysis, but something about New York feels like the Democratic voters have a bit more of the moderate nonwhite and moderate whites than Virginia, which could cause a larger rightward swing than seen in 2021 Virginia. My instincts tell me the swing will be more like what was seen in 2021 New Jersey (a neighboring state).