NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[GregTheGreat657]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

[GregTheGreat657]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)

She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

[GregTheGreat657]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)

She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

Which is still good enough IMO. She seems palatable enough, where she could be an Ossoff type. Where they are pretty damn liberal in their actions and votes, but their persona comes off much more 'moderate'. A very winning formula.

Ossoff never ran on the same ticket as the most hated governor in recent history

[GregTheGreat657]

This is my prediction for the county map if the race ends up being Hochul vs. Zeldin

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=dfas

[GregTheGreat657]

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1480977944927428614
It would be good to see him again for one last ride.

He's probably not winning the primary. But I doubt he evens runs. Just like Pataki floated a run in New York last year.

I wish Pataki ran, so he would have a solid chance of winning a general election

[GregTheGreat657]

Tbh I'd support Wilson, as out of all of the candidates running or considering it, he has the best chance of winning

[GregTheGreat657]

Sources claiming Hochul will actually renew and expand (including children 2+) the mask mandate tomorrow.

Curious to see how she'll fare by further infuriating parents.

If this happens, I will be changing back to a blue avvie, and changing my display name to "Freedom Fighter Lee Zeldin for Governor"

[GregTheGreat657]

Meanwhile, in the real world, Hochul is letting the mandate expire tomorrow and will probably let the separate mask mandate for schools expire as scheduled in two weeks.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1491201687549263873?s=21
(apologies for linking to the N*w Y*rk T*mes)

LET’S F***ING GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GregTheGreat657]

Assuming that he enters, I am now endorsing Harry Wilson for Governor, because he has the best chances of winning *knocks on wood*, though those chances are still well below 50%

[GregTheGreat657]

Assuming that he enters, I am now endorsing Harry Wilson for Governor, because he has the best chances of winning *knocks on wood*, though those chances are still well below 50%

Nah, the GE is Safe D.

It would be slightly less Safe D

[GregTheGreat657]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1504091037962227719
oh god

Cuomo is definitely running for something

[GregTheGreat657]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1504091037962227719
oh god

Cuomo is definitely running for something

Are we sure he's running for something in 2022?

He might be setting himself up to primary Gillibrand in 2024 instead.

I doubt he'd be spending this much on ads this far in advance

[GregTheGreat657]

At this point, if Cuomo runs (which I don't think is particularly likely at this point), he'll do it as a third-party run.

You mean on purpose to hand Zeldin the Governor's Mansion on a silver platter with 40-44% of the vote? Or at least give Hochul a run for her money?

This is what I hope happens

[GregTheGreat657]

Heard Cuomo is announcing tomorrow from someone who works for Hochul. No further details.

If he does run, I’ll dedicate at least one post a week to an anti-Cuomo rant

[GregTheGreat657]

First Hochul TV ad has been aired:

https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1516421400399122440
Let's go, Kathy!

List of candidate I've seen ads from before this (Source: Live in NYS)

Lee Zeldin
Harry Wilson
Tom Suozzi

Out of this list, Wilson has had, by far, the most ads, with Suozzi in second, and Zeldin in third. in his ads, Suozzi sounds like a Republican, until you get to the part where he says he's a Democrat.

[GregTheGreat657]

Hochul at +18 approval per Morning Consult

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

Unless something drastic happens Hochul will win another term. Incumbents very rarely lose if they have an approval rating of 50 or more.

R’s won’t win NY, but they could force D’s to divert funding, hurting them elsewhere

[GregTheGreat657]

Never heard of Delgada, honestly. I hope he's a better choice, though I'm not sure pulling somebody out of the House is the best possible option. We have to see, he may not have lasted in the House beyond November anyway.

However, I'm not sure Delgada is guaranteed to win the lt. governor primary. This could end up being a total wildcard since neither of candidates are particulary well known and there's less than two months left. Would be interesting to have an all-woman ticket. Suozzi's running mate seems not that bad and more qualified than Williams'.

Delgado is a center-left congressman who represents the Hudson Valley and Catskills

[GregTheGreat657]

911? I'd like to report a murder. lol
https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1547694016451358723

Textbook sexism here. That "somebody's wife" is gonna trounce you big time in November, you clown.

Zeldin himself didn’t say it

[GregTheGreat657]

If Hochul wins, NY will continue to be run into the ground

[GregTheGreat657]

If Hochul wins, NY will continue to be run into the ground

I think she's been very good so far and is easily the best of the previous four Democratic governors since 2007 (although that's not a particularly high bar).

It's almost certainly not an "if", but a "when". She's going to cakewalk this.

Regardless of the stunt, NY Dems (Hochul included) have been incredibly soft on the rising crime