NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[kwabbit]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

[kwabbit]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

For references sake, 26.3% of the 2018 Lt. Gov primary vote was north of Westchester and 33.8% was north of NYC. Hochul won this first group 64 - 36 and the second group 63-37 vs Williams.

Wow, that’s even more extreme than I thought. I would consider Westchester and Rockland part of Downstate. Hochul can’t just rely on Upstate if it’s only 26% of the vote, she’ll be having to win NYC or close to it as well.

Maybe a New Yorker can comment on this, but I use 2018 GOV as a benchmark for how geographic polarization would affect an election. Cuomo’s overperformance extended into Rockland and Westchester, but Orange and Putnam were still voting very strongly for Molinaro, so it would seem that they identify with Upstate.

[kwabbit]

This is my prediction for the county map if the race ends up being Hochul vs. Zeldin

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=dfas

Dutchess may vote GOP but I agree with everything else on this map. We'll see if we get some geographical polarization that's the reverse of 2018. Molinaro won every Hudson county except Albany and Ulster, even winning Columbia, while Cuomo won Staten Island both LI counties.

If it goes the other way, Hochul probably keeps all of the Biden Hudson counties.

[kwabbit]

This is my prediction for the county map if the race ends up being Hochul vs. Zeldin

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=dfas

Dutchess may vote GOP but I agree with everything else on this map. We'll see if we get some geographical polarization that's the reverse of 2018. Molinaro won every Hudson county except Albany and Ulster, even winning Columbia, while Cuomo won Staten Island both LI counties.

If it goes the other way, Hochul probably keeps all of the Biden Hudson counties.

I think Hochul wins Nassau, by 2-3 points. I wonder if that means that the Long Island Senate Democrats get swept out....

It depends how Hochul is viewed. As the incumbent governor, she might just be seen as representing the NYC hegemony so she might not get an Upstate boost or a Downstate penalty. I think Nassau is a tossup given that Zeldin is from Long Island and it will be favorable environment for Republicans. The GOP did do extremely well in 2021 in LI, perhaps that could carry over into 2022.

[kwabbit]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a right-wing candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

It’s not an ideology thing, it’s a regionalism upstate vs downstate thing. Cuomo was the downstate candidate, Molinaro was the upstate candidate. The results reflected that. This time it’s reversed. Hochul is also far western, from Buffalo/Niagara. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins Niagara while losing Nassau.

[kwabbit]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a right-wing candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

It’s not an ideology thing, it’s a regionalism upstate vs downstate thing. Cuomo was the downstate candidate, Molinaro was the upstate candidate. The results reflected that. This time it’s reversed. Hochul is also far western, from Buffalo/Niagara. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins Niagara while losing Nassau.

Remember that Paladino won in Erie County in 2010 while losing massively statewide.

And Golisano won Monroe County as an independent. Which I find even more interesting. Local figures really do have big crossover support in Upstate NY.

[kwabbit]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a right-wing candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

It’s not an ideology thing, it’s a regionalism upstate vs downstate thing. Cuomo was the downstate candidate, Molinaro was the upstate candidate. The results reflected that. This time it’s reversed. Hochul is also far western, from Buffalo/Niagara. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins Niagara while losing Nassau.

Hence why I think she will flip multiple upstate counties. Delgado is from upstate too. The first time that's happened since 1910.

I don't see her losing Nassau. Suffolk probably.

Nassau was only Clinton +6/Biden +10. With a Long Island based candidate in a good Republican environment, it seems like a tossup to me. The GOP had a great election in 2021 in Nassau as well. Suffolk definitely flips. It’s Zeldin’s home territory and Trump won it twice already. We don’t really know how the regionalism will play out when the Dem is from Upstate and the Republican is from Downstate. It might be hard for Zeldin to paint Hochul as only for upstaters like it was easy for Molinaro to say the same about Cuomo only being for downstaters.

[kwabbit]

This could be a big deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/yesh222/status/1586918322393808896

Wow, now the Orthodox community is going do vote R+90 instead of R+87

The Orthodox community has typically supported the Democrats down ballot. This is quite significant for Lawler at least. Zeldin needed them to get close; it would've been game over if he hadn't.

In general, it's not helpful for the Democratic Party if a group whose population doubles every 15 years is becoming increasingly politically organized against you. Especially in NY 17/18, which are quite demographically stagnant except for the Orthodox.

[kwabbit]

Interesting...
https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1587284707154206720?s=20&t=Tf2DKEKznRKD...

Someone with Doug Mastriano as their pfp is not a source of objective analysis.

[kwabbit]

If Hochul does end up winning by 12-15%, then it will also mean that all of the "polls" showing her sinking were incredibly shoddy, since there a ton of polls of this race in September that showed her up by just that amount. Most of the polls that showed her doing bad were either partisan, or had incredibly odd composite party-reg make-ups that look nothing like New York.

There was plenty of legitimate movement to Zeldin that wasn't just a function of non-response in polling. Emerson has polled the race thrice and had strong, robust Biden recalled vote (maybe even too high) in all three and had it going from Hochul +15 to +7 to +9. A battery of high quality pollsters polled the race and had swings from September to October.

There was definitely some lopsided enthusiasm gap that was fueling Zeldin's rise in the polls that has leveled out as we approach election day, but to suggest that there wasn't persuasion going on is untrue. There can be actual movement in gubernatorial races, it's not always non-response.

[kwabbit]

Honestly Zeldin's NYC performance seems a lot less impressive when you realize he barely did better than Silwa in 2021

He did better than Sliwa or Malliotakis or Lhota, but did not do well as Pataki 1994-1998-2002. Pataki got at least 35%-37% of the vote in NYC.

Pataki carried SI and Queens throughout his elections....

Pataki didn't carry Queens in any of his runs. He got 35% in '94, 36% in '98, and 44% in '02. He might've won it in 2002 if not for Golisano, but Pataki won his elections by doing well everywhere not in NYC, particularly in Westchester and the Upstate urban centers.

[kwabbit]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

The Bronx is little non-Hispanic White that it’s not a matter of turnout differences among racial groups. Non-white Republicans probably turned out more than Non-white Democrats, but most of it was that Zeldin did just persuade a large amount of Hispanic voters in the Bronx.

The Bronx is easy to analyze because it’s like 8% NH White and there are very few solid Republicans. Swings there are very likely to be from persuasion.

[kwabbit]

I remember how much sh*t I took for saying I would vote third party over Hochul if I lived in New York. That she was always an active, willing participant in a party machine that views mainstream Democrats as a greater enemy than conservatives.

Once again, I have been vindicated!

The NY Dems knew there would be plenty like you, that's why they forced all third parties off the ballot. Zeldin might've won if the Greens were there. Not difficult to see them getting 7% or something and changing the result.

[kwabbit]

I feel like we're in a cycle of "Hochul does something, everyone freaks out and says she's the devil" with no context in between. Not saying that all of the stuff she's doing isn't legitimately bad, but it certainly would be confounding if she was doing all of these things on purpose, and I can't take a lot of Twitter seriously about it because some of those people freak out over everything.

Can someone actually break down this veto and what the bill actually does?

I agree that some of these twitter takes are a bit silly, but ig what's frustrating is that Hochul seems to be doing a lot of things that are the opposite of what she ran on, even though NY is generally a deep blue state, and it's unclear exactly why.

Is she just genuinely more conservative at heart? Does someone on the right have something against her they'll release if she doesn't do their bidding? Is she getting paid a lot of money?

Especially with the LaSalle thing and they fact she's bending over backwards to fight a losing battle for such an unlikely pick, something feels very wrong to me as a NYer and idk what it is. I just want like a coherent reason why she actually wants LaSalle on the court specifically so much.

Hochul was elected as a blue dog type in a Republican district in Western New York. Her political career has taught to her move to the center.

In her mind, she won a pyrrhic and embarrassing victory against Zeldin while running a more typically liberal campaign. Everything in her career has taught her to move to the center after an electoral underperformance, so that is what she's doing.

I don't think Hochul is really a poor politician either. The GOP was going to have a wave in NY either way. Only Suozzi could've kept the race comfortable given his downstate moderate politics, Williams could've done worse than Hochul.