NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Torrain]

Incumbent Gov. Hochul when?

https://twitter.com/decider/status/1362833588102823948

Ron Kim has done more for bipartisanship in the last week than most politicians do in their entire career. Can we run him for Governor instead?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366931605479186435

Kind of agree with this take - until the Speaker of the NY House is cajoled into opposing Cuomo, he's going nowhere. It will probably take the credible threat of impeachment to force a resignation.

Only 5 (out of 105) Democratic State Reps have come out for Cuomo's resignation so far. It's going to take a lot more than to convince Speaker Heastie to bury Cuomo.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366931605479186435
Kind of agree with this take - until the Speaker of the NY House is cajoled into opposing Cuomo, he's going nowhere. It will probably take the credible threat of impeachment to force a resignation.

Only 5 (out of 105) Democratic State Reps have come out for Cuomo's resignation so far. It's going to take a lot more than to convince Speaker Heastie to bury Cuomo.

Could the state house dems revolt and impeach with the gop?

That would be one route - but I'm not sure how feasible it is, I'm afraid. Firstly, the Dems have a supermajority, so at least a third of Dems would be required to join the GOP in that rebelllion.

Secondly, I'm not sure how much power the Speaker has over bringing motions to the floor - which could be key in any impeachment effort.

Would be interested if our NY posters know any more...

[Torrain]

Earlier in the week, Andrea Stewart-Cousins, Majority Leader of the NY State Senate, said that Cuomo would be compelled to step down if one more accuser came forth.

At that point, there were only three accusers.

She already led the successful effort to remove his emergency powers - time to for the legislature to finish the job.

[Torrain]

In further proof that Cuomo has learned absolutely nothing, he's now threatening members of the legislature who call for his resignation.

https://twitter.com/harrysiegel/status/1368628976948813841

(The deal here is that investigations into NY senators is handled by JCOPE, which only releases details once material evidence emerges in support of prosecution.)

[Torrain]

Also, for some reason, Kathy Hochul just tweeted this. Trying not to be a conspiracy theorist - but this feels like a dig at Cuomo.

I know it's not much, but this is basically the closest we've got to an actual comment on this situation from her.

https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1368610034670788614

[Torrain]

Game. Set. Match.

https://twitter.com/morganfmckay/status/1368653942046007297

Relevant, from WaPo investigative journalist:

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1368642170912137218

[Torrain]

If Heastie does the same, then it's truly game over.

He's so close....

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1368658817907589139

[Torrain]

If Heastie does the same, then it's truly game over.

He's so close....

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1368658817907589139

He's already there. If "(he) too share(s) the sentiment of Senate Majority Leader Stewart-Cousins regarding the Governor's ability to continue to lead this state," & her sentiment is "resign," then...

True. Behind the scenes, both leaders seem to have made up their minds. I just meant that Heastie is not ready to use the word 'resign'. If he's worried about Cuomo's base (particularly among voters of colour) retaliating against him, Cuomo might be able to hold onto power a little longer.

On the other hand, if Heastie and Stewart-Collins are ready to have their Nixon moment with Cuomo, and show that they have the votes for removal, they might be able to force a resignation without initiating an impeachment.

[Torrain]

Obviously not as big as the news from earlier, but Senator Kruegar, Chair of the NY Senate Finance Committee is also calling for Cuomo's resignation.

https://twitter.com/LizKrueger/status/1368666830911463433

Less interesting as an individual voice, but more as part of a shifting narrative. Last week only a handful of progressives in the Dem caucus, as well as big GOP names were willing to call for Cuomo to go.

Now that the leadership has come out in support, it opens the floodgates for the more moderate and establishment Dems to do the same.

A chorus of voices, totally close to a majority of either chamber could be the critical mass needed to make Cuomo finally accept reality.

[Torrain]

Also have Biden or Harris comment on this yet?

To my knowledge, Biden, Gillibrand, Schumer and Pelosi have all indicated support for the AG's investigation into Cuomo. (I'd imagine Harris is toeing the White House line, and staying quiet).

Psaki has dodged over whether Biden still supports Cuomo, but made comments about how she was personally uncomfortable with his conduct. I can't imagine she'd be allowed to voice that discomfort if the White House wasn't getting ready to put pressure on Cuomo to go (behind the scenes, mind you - I don't expect Biden to publicly call for resignation unless the situation spirals).

[Torrain]

Also have Biden or Harris comment on this yet?

To my knowledge, Biden, Gillibrand, Schumer and Pelosi have all indicated support for the AG's investigation into Cuomo. (I'd imagine Harris is toeing the White House line, and staying quiet).

Psaki has dodged over whether Biden still supports Cuomo, but made comments about how she was personally uncomfortable with his conduct. I can't imagine she'd be allowed to voice that discomfort if the White House wasn't getting ready to put pressure on Cuomo to go (behind the scenes, mind you - I don't expect Biden to publicly call for resignation unless the situation spirals).

Obama/Paterson 2: Electric Boogaloo

Exactly what I was thinking of.

Man, it's really something that Cuomo's probably to be pushed out of office in a manner near-identical to the last two governors.

[Torrain]

Suozzi joins the congressional calls against Cuomo, albeit more tepidly than those earlier.

So that leaves only 4 NY Dem Representatives who have yet to call for resignation:
- Gregory Meeks
- Hakeem Jeffries
- Ritchie Torres
- Joe Morelle.

In addition to Schumer and Gillibrand.

[Torrain]

Also of note, now that Speaker Heastie has initiated an impeachment enquiry in the NY Assembly's Judiciary Committee.

A letter was sent from 59 Democratic members of the combined Assembly and Senate, calling on Cuomo to resign. Most importantly, 40 of those members were in the Assembly. That number, combined with the GOP members of the Assembly would be sufficient to impeach Cuomo.

The numbers are already there for impeachment - as long as it effectively clears committee.

Letter for context:

[Torrain]

Also of note, now that Speaker Heastie has initiated an impeachment enquiry in the NY Assembly's Judiciary Committee.

A letter was sent from 59 Democratic members of the combined Assembly and Senate, calling on Cuomo to resign. Most importantly, 40 of those members were in the Assembly. That number, combined with the GOP members of the Assembly would be sufficient to impeach Cuomo.

The numbers are already there for impeachment - as long as it effectively clears committee.

Letter for context:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwNTLpBXEAMg6Ha?format=jpg&name=900x900

Do we have confirmation that the GOP is cooperative here? I could see them voting No if that would be decisive in order to give them a chance at winning the Governorship next year.

The NY GOP Assembly members launched their own impeachment enquiry attempt last week. I think they do want Cuomo gone.

I could see a situation where they vote against (just as they refused to revoke Cuomo's emergency powers - stating that the bill did not go far enough to minimse gubernatorial authority).

However, in that hypothetical, I think Heastie would still have sufficient votes to pass impeachment. The Speaker only needs 76 members to impeach - and he has 106 Democrats.

40 Democrats have already publicly called for Cuomo's resignation. They've burned their bridges with the governor, and are pretty solid yes votes. That means of the remaining 66 Dems, Heastie only needs to only pursue half.

[Torrain]

Brief look at the members of the NY Assembly Judiciary Committee, now that Heastie has approved an impeachment enquiry.

Members – 20  (14D-6R)

Highlighted are the 11 members who have publicly called (via statement or Twitter) for Cuomo’s resignation, or removal via impeachment.

    Thomas J. Abinanti (D)
    Edward C. Braunstein (D)
    Keith P. Brown (R)
    Marjorie Byrnes (R)
    Catalina Cruz (D)
    Latoya Joyner (D)
    Karen McMahon (D)
    Marcela Mitaynes (D)
    Michael Montesano (R)
    Michael J. Norris (R)
    Dan Quart (D)
    Jenifer Rajkumar (D)
    Rebecca A. Seawright (D)
    Phil Steck (D)
    Michael Tannousis (R)
    Latrice Walker (D)
    Monica P. Wallace (D)
    Mary Beth Walsh (R)
    David I. Weprin (D)
    Kenneth Zebrowski (D)

[Torrain]

Rep Meeks is tentatively for resignation:

https://twitter.com/RepGregoryMeeks/status/1370511555541012480

We're down to Jeffries and Torres.

[Torrain]

Suozzi joins the congressional calls against Cuomo, albeit more tepidly than those earlier.

So that leaves only 4 NY Dem Representatives who have yet to call for resignation:
- Gregory Meeks
- Hakeem Jeffries
- Ritchie Torres
- Joe Morelle.

In addition to Schumer and Gillibrand.

Any ideas why Torres/Meeks are holding out? (Unless they’ve announced their support for removal since this and I’ve missed it). Neither of them have ever struck me as particularly pro-Cuomo.

As of now, Meeks seems to be cautiously in favour (statement on the previous page).

Torres is a freshman, and so may be waiting for consensus before he speaks out. (Strangely enough, today is actually his birthday - according to Wikipedia, so maybe he's preoccupied)

Jeffries is in leadership, and might just be taking the same line that Schumer and Gillibrand took (waiting for the investigation to conclude), before their change of heart in the last hour.

[Torrain]

Cuomo is still not going to resign. Hochul is silent. So is DiNapoli.

You were saying?

Comproller DiNapoli is now calling for Cuomo's resignation:

https://twitter.com/NYSComptroller/status/1370512327003504646

[Torrain]

Rep. Torres has joined the calls for Cuomo's resignation.

https://twitter.com/RepRitchie/status/1370516462813769742

We now have statements from all 19 of the NY Dem Representatives. 17 have directly called for resignation, while two (Meeks and Jeffries) are waiting for the results of AG James' investigation.

[Torrain]

So, is Hochul the first female Governor of New York?

Yeah. As far as I can see, no woman have been nominated (by the major parties) for Governor, let alone won the seat.

[Torrain]

Jumaane Williams makes calculated sense (he balances the ticket on Upstate/Downstate, racial, gender and ideological lines). He seems to be one of the great progressive hopes in the state, so Hochul could make 2022 a lot easier on herself if she gets him to join her ticket now.

He’s not 100% clean. His 2018 campaign was criticised after it had to fire several high-profile staffers for issues very similar to Cuomo’s behaviour. He’s also been vocal about personal issues with both abortion and same sex marriage, which although not dealbreakers, could lead to intra-party strife in a high-profile primary dominated by a “I’m more progressive than thou” mentality.

I kinda wonder whether a term or two as LG might remove those issues for Williams. 4-8 years of tie-breaking, fundraising and progressive speech-making would basically make it all insignificant in comparison to his record. He’s made a decent career as PA, but there might be as much for him to gain as Hochul if she offers it to him.

[Torrain]

So we've got the frontrunner in next year's race.

We may also get some comic relief:
https://twitter.com/erinmdurkin/status/1425836694897668099

[Torrain]

Hochul confirmed to CNN today that her L.G. will hail from NYC proper, as opposed to just Long Island or Westchester. Granted, that doesn't really narrow down the list of names that's been out there in any way, but it's technically something.

Well, yes. Hochul is from Upstate, she has to pick a downstate (NYC) to balance the ticket.

Zeldin should pick a Upstate Latino/a conservative to balance his downstateness

Ever been to Upstate New York? Not too many conservative Latinas there. Who'd you have in mind?

No, I have not gone to Upstate New York in a while, but he could pick a white Latina conservative small businessowner, probably a Cuban or Venezuelan or Colombian who can attract Latino voters, a bloc Zeldin needs.

If Nicole Malliotakis was from upstate, she'd tick a lot of boxes for him. I doubt she wants to switch from an eminently winnable House race to an almost-impossibly uphill race for Lieutenant Governor though.

[Torrain]

Has Hochul indicated when she’ll name a replacement LG? It makes sense that she would wait until there’s officially a vacancy (ie, once she’s officially governor).

Not too bothered if it takes a week or two (better a well-vetted pick than a rushed one), but just curious if there’s a timeline yet.

Haven’t been able to find anything myself.