NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[tosk]

Is there a chance Cuomo faces legal scrutiny over this nursing home incident? If so, Dems could force him out not to run again or even his resignation.

my understanding was that either DOJ or NYAG was looking at it. Hope I'm not off base.

[tosk]

FWIW, NY GOP starting to take out social media ads depicting a Hochul vs. de Blasio primary.

Huh.

Do you figure they have inside knowledge on de Blasio’s decision to run (last I heard he was still undecided), or are they just trying to bait him into the race?

Either way, I imagine their pre-resignation hopes were for a messy Cuomo-vs-everyone primary, that bloodied him enough to squeak a victory. Would be bizarre if they’re trying to hold onto that playbook in the post-Cuomo race - which is pretty scandal free on the dem side thus far. .

they probably realize their 10% chance at winning left with cuomo, and the only way they can resuscitate those odds are if De Blasio is the nominee/a bitterly divided primary

[tosk]

FWIW, NY GOP starting to take out social media ads depicting a Hochul vs. de Blasio primary.

Huh.

Do you figure they have inside knowledge on de Blasio’s decision to run (last I heard he was still undecided), or are they just trying to bait him into the race?

Either way, I imagine their pre-resignation hopes were for a messy Cuomo-vs-everyone primary, that bloodied him enough to squeak a victory. Would be bizarre if they’re trying to hold onto that playbook in the post-Cuomo race - which is pretty scandal free on the dem side thus far. .

they probably realize their 10% chance at winning left with cuomo, and the only way they can resuscitate those odds are if De Blasio is the nominee/a bitterly divided primary

Sounds about right. There was a clear playbook for the GOP before Cuomo resigned, and all indications were he was going stick around.

Like Sir Mohamed though, I have serious doubts that it’ll work now. Even if de Blasio were to run, it’s really hard to see him making this race competitive. Unless Hochul somehow ends up scandal-ridden, it looks like she’s going ride a tide of goodwill to the nomination.

The only real thing primary opponents can hit her on is her previous conservative positions. And if “I’ve evolved my positions” is enough for statewide politicians like Gillibrand to keep winning elections, I imagine it’ll be enough for Hochul too.

I tend to agree. Best case for republicans seems to be avoiding a total collapse.