NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

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Hopefully he gets a better primary challenger this time around.

Why not Fran Fine? I heard she was a contender for Hillary's U.S. Senate seat...

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I would find a primary between Artemis and West Wind extremely interesting.
Especially the former lives in NYC, whereas the latter comes from Upstate.

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Just say, Led Zeppelin ekes out a narrow victory, say 50,1% to 49.9%, what counties would Hochschul still win?

I'd assume, all NYC boroughs (bar Staten Island), Westchester, Albany, and Tompkins are safe for the Democrat.
The pivotal question will be if she would also be going to Nassau, Rockland, Buffalo and Rochester.

What do you think?

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Barring NYC just not voting at all, I cannot see a path for Zeldin that doesn't include winning Nassau and winning it by a decent margin at minimum. Erie is complicated because Hochul is from there, but at the same time Zeldin kind of needs that as well.

I tried to figure out what counties Zeldin needs to win by taking a look at Pataki's election, but I saw that the county map was kind of "flawed", as both his elections were three-way races, with a liberal independent running in either case.

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There is no way for Zeldin to win without carrying Nassau and Rockland by a large margin. He would possibly have to carry Erie and Monroe too.

According to the polls, Zeldin seems to get at least 45% of the vote. These votes must come from somewhere. I assume that he is going to do very well in Nassau.