NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1370403166785781761?s=20

EDIT: Now SPM, whose voice is key since he chairs the DCCC.

https://twitter.com/RepSeanMaloney/status/1370413742178045953?s=20

EDIT2: Upstate time.

https://twitter.com/RobertHarding/status/1370410745679249417?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Why is it that all the calls for resignations are citing the sexual harassment allegations rather than the nursing home story? I think the latter is far worse.

The latter is worse, but the former is more recent. Cuomo's sexual adventures keep making the news, and more and more keeps coming to light. The fact that this story has staying power, and keeps getting worse, is what people remember.

[Oryxslayer]

Suozzi joins the congressional calls against Cuomo, albeit more tepidly than those earlier.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1370506315055906820?s=20

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1370504653260066817?s=20

Now that the senators views are clear, more are fleeing the ship.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Santucci/status/1371975649800425476?s=20

...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EoinHiggins_/status/1422593010722877449?s=20

https://twitter.com/YanceyRoy/status/1422596548857405442?s=20

Looks like things are moving, as far as a post-Cuomo governorship is concerned. Early on the compromise with Cuomo's allies was "wait for the investigation, if it's truly nothing then people will forget" but things did not work out that way at all.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1422660552015454208?s=20

Biden brings down the axe. Knowing Cuomo he will still fight this thing out, but this should be the go ahead for the legislature to impeach and remove without consequence.

[Oryxslayer]

It's Happening.

https://twitter.com/ppm1214/status/1422666691343917062?s=20

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellGAN/status/1422667831620014080?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Hochul is officially the incumbent on August 25th.

Title change request please.

[Oryxslayer]

I think she also hinted it will be someone from Downstate by saying she likes diversity in the administration. I hope she names a sane progressive who can help in 2022.

Any shot it's Jumaane Williams? He meets the already stated criteria of "someone people are familiar with" and also provides a lot of balance/diversity (geographic, ideological, gender, racial). This move would also probably help her fend off a primary challenge from the left in '22 by demonstrating to progressives that they have a seat at the table in her administration.

He's quite literally the only person whom I can think of who'd meet all of the presumed pre-requisites based on her statement: a NYC politician who's a racial &/or ethnic minority & whom most people are already pretty familiar with.

Unfortunately, Andrew Yang also meets all the criteria. Balances geography, gender, ethnicity, and who hasn't heard of the guy. He also seems to have a knack at failing towards success. But I hope he isn't what she has in mind.

[Oryxslayer]

Im hearing Cuomo hasn't submitted a formal resignation letter and could possibly rescind his resignation? Is there any merit to this?

He didn't submit the letter yet, but I don't know why he has to do it right now? He could do it on August 23; sources say he's scheduled to be out by the conclusion of that day.

Impeachment procedings would resume immediately should be backtrack. But I don't see it. He has no base to govern anymore. Nobody in Albany support him.

The schedule is he leaves at 11:59 on Tuesday, Hochul sworn in at 12

[Oryxslayer]

Another example of Cuomo being a jerk personally: sounds like never actually trained his dog and is now looking to give it away as he leaves Albany.

[Oryxslayer]

Hochul is now Governor of the Empire State.

[Oryxslayer]

Williams also tweeted this, but I guess we just have to wait whom ultimately gets appointed. So far, her moves seem to confirm my earlier expressions she has more potential for successful governing than many expected.

https://twitter.com/nycpa/status/1427819112345001986

Actually doubt Williams is chosen for lt. gov. One of the black lawmakers from NYC are more likely in my opinion.

I wonder whether there's actually going to be a real primary challenge for Hochul? If she maneuvers the state safely through the coming months, why would Dems replace the 1st female gov? Same actually happened with Gilibrand, who was expected to be challenged in 2010 but never actually was. Like Hochul, she was a rep from a conservative district and suddenly elevated to a position of power. The parallels are striking.

Possible she runs virtually unopposed, but I don't want to bet at it at this point. The parallels with Gillibrand are striking indeed, though I don't know, for some reason I don't like Gillibrand very much while I find Kathy Hochul very likeable.

Gilibrand strikes me as the mom who constantly complains to the PTA about peanut butter while Hochul feels like she doesn’t care if her kids smoke weed “just be smart about it”

What is this…based on? I see these kinds of comparisons of female politicians to different suburban mom archetypes of all the time and much less often for men.

Men (and I guess some women too) like placing female politicians and women in the public sphere into archetypes/boxes. I don't know if this is strictly cause of sexist thinking (though it's part of it) but it's very obvious. Think of how many people instantly compare Janet Yellen or Ruth Bader Ginsburg to their grandmothers, for instance.

A wise politician though knows how to exploit this - see "Frau" Merkel.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, Hochul will digitally address the state at 3pm on ny.gov.

[Oryxslayer]

Jumaane is awesome and I fully endorse him. That being said, he's going to lose until other prominent Dems run and he squeaks by off a plurality.

Actually, Williams probably does best in a 1v1. Hochul has 30ish% of the primary on lock just by being an Upstate Democrat and examining past primary turnout and voting patterns from said region. By being governor she likely has a few more percent just from incumbency. So she it much more likely to just hit the natural plurality if there are 2 or more Downstate challengers rather than one New York City Democrat vs one from Upstate.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/katieglueck/status/1445714877809508355?s=21

So there probably aren't the voters to make de Blasio the Nom - all mayors end up unpopular both outside and inside their constituency and de Blasio is no exception. However him getting in alongside one of the downstate African Americans probably means the field is divided enough that Hochul can win just on incumbency and sweeping upstate.

[Oryxslayer]

Larry Sharpe announces "probable" campaign with the Libertarian Party.

Mods / OP, can we get a title change? This is not an important development in the race at all.

What else has been going on?

De Blasio feeling out a run is the obvious one.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1453467708259975178?s=20

Looks like we are getting the Hochul ideal scenario with 3+ serious candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1465337006603608070

It really will be the Hochul landslide by plurality we were all guessing about a few months ago. Not that many Dems upstate, but if everything south of White Plains is divided between infinite candidates and everything north is a Hochul win by a 40% margin on average, well...

[Oryxslayer]

Looking forward to see all the political careers of these clowns ended in defeat. They're desperately attempting to replace a scandal-free governor who has governed like a Mainstream Democrat just for opportunistic reasons.

Jumaane is the only one who will still be in elected office and may run for something else (like congress) in the future.

You are aware that many said they didn't;t have an opinion in the most recent approval polls.
Lol, you are clueless. Hochul is the third least popular governor in America according to a recent poll. She will face a strong primary challenge by someone who doesn't appoint Bloomberg retreads to their advisory team.

Yes, but approval below 50 is never a sign that a candidate is untouchable.

Also, lol at the people thinking Suozzi is going to split the NYC vote. Nobody in NYC gives a rat's ass about him. He will cut squarely into Hochul's base as a moderate.

Imagine think ideology, rather than geography, is what's at play here. If it was, then It would just be a Houchul vs Williams primary. And yes, Suozzi isn't going to divide NYC that much, thats for the numerous others who at this point are just as unlikely to see success upstate. But he will divide LI and deny said others votes from their shared media market.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

For references sake, 26.3% of the 2018 Lt. Gov primary vote was north of Westchester and 33.8% was north of NYC. Hochul won this first group 64 - 36 and the second group 63-37 vs Williams.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

For references sake, 26.3% of the 2018 Lt. Gov primary vote was north of Westchester and 33.8% was north of NYC. Hochul won this first group 64 - 36 and the second group 63-37 vs Williams.

Wow, that’s even more extreme than I thought. I would consider Westchester and Rockland part of Downstate. Hochul can’t just rely on Upstate if it’s only 26% of the vote, she’ll be having to win NYC or close to it as well.

Maybe a New Yorker can comment on this, but I use 2018 GOV as a benchmark for how geographic polarization would affect an election. Cuomo’s overperformance extended into Rockland and Westchester, but Orange and Putnam were still voting very strongly for Molinaro, so it would seem that they identify with Upstate.

As far as the primary vote goes, the north Suburban counties can go either way and align with either the city or the rest. That's why I included them, in this election they were essentially the same as the overall counties to their north. In the Cuomo elections they aligned more with the city.

Hochul did lose NYC 53.7% to 46.3% in said election.

[Oryxslayer]

Don't all of these people know that they're just going to split the downstate vote and allow Hochul to win by dominating in upstate?

I assume its similar to the Biden/bernie situation from the D primary in 2019: sure they have a big base but if you crowd out the alternatives and force them to end their runs then you could end up ahead. Of course in said contest nobody left the feild until it was too late and Bidens geographic stronghold, comparable to Upstate, came through and crushed the opposition so...

[Oryxslayer]

Has a sitting gov in recent memory attracted that many non-perennial candidates? Tbh, I can't think of one. Most likely has nothing to do with Hochul personally or her governing style, I just think these contenders long desired to be gov anyway and see this race as a "now or never/in 10 years" as Hochul is an unelected incumbent who was a lower profile politician before taking the reigns of power. Williams is possibly the only candidate who actually runs for pure ideological reasons and would have done so against any incumbent who isn't to the left of AOC.

That said, I think there's a substantial chance not all candidates even make it to June, when the primary is held. I'm not fully convinced Suozzi will even gain traction statewide, same applies to De Blasio if/when he enters. Williams will most likely hang on even if the race becomes (or stays) a de facto Hochul vs. James contest with the former has clear favorite. Remember NY is a large state and you need to raise enough money to seriously contest a race statewide.

This is an excellent take. Only thing I would note is less that it is a big state and more that the NYC media market will swallow a campaign alive if the candidate cannot get traction.