NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[LabourJersey]

Hochul will be the incumbent Governor by summer at the very latest and is likely not going anywhere for a while after that.

Nah, I doubt this.

Wouldn't surprise me if Cuomo announces he won't run for a fourth term (the harassment charges are bad) but I'm sure he feels his "leadership" is needed for the time being.

[LabourJersey]

(Cross-posted in the USGD Cuomo thread too)

Not to seem like a doomer, but given how Trump managed to completely upend the landscape of what constitutes an actual resignation-triggering scandal, what's stopping Cuomo - who, at this point, is unambiguously the Democratic Trump in terms of personality - from just saying "f**k off, haters" & continuing in office for the remainder of his term, if not then going on to even be re-elected to a 4th?

Like, at least Spitzer & Schneiderman had the wherewithal to understand that their time & political support were up (or about to be), & Northam was pretty much prevented from resigning by the circumstances of his entire line-of-succession having their own issues, but I don't know, it just seems like even with everything terrible that's coming out about Cuomo right now (& even though he has a scandal-free successor ready & waiting in the wings), his political support still isn't going away, at least not to an extent that it'd need to in order to actually trigger a resignation, or an impeachment, or - at the very least - an announcement that he won't be seeking a 4th term?

Seriously, what the hell's going on here? Am I just being overly worried/crazy & something unbeknownst to my eye but earth-shattering is indeed happening here that's actually gonna result in his being gone relatively soon, or - as I fear - does truly nothing matter anymore & he's here to stay?

Your point is pretty valid, but I don't think Cuomo is at the level of Trump's delusion and unrelenting narcissism.

He could, of course, think this can all blow over and feel that if he just stays the course he can get that elusive 4th term. He might be right? But the Democratic party would be so much more willing to jettison Cuomo than you might think, especially if the primary challenger is a person of color.

I think the likely scenario is still that he'll say no to a 4th term but say the allegations aren't proven, and stay in office until January 1, 2023. But there's a lot of moving parts here so a bunch of different scenarios can happen.

[LabourJersey]

What's the procedure for impeaching a Governor in New York?

[LabourJersey]

The other surprise flip I can think of off the top of my head is NY-3, largely because I think Tom Suozzi is going to attempt to primary Cuomo.

Is he? He seems one of the worst-placed in the delegation to do so - he's just too similar and undistinctive to really drive the message home.

Souzzi previously ran for Governor in 2006, so I wouldn't be shocked if he still has statewide ambitions, and he might see a wounded Cuomo as easy pickings.

Isn't de Blasio rumored to want to run? Not sure if Suozzi could find a lane in a deBlasio/Cuomo matchup

[LabourJersey]

Williams also tweeted this, but I guess we just have to wait whom ultimately gets appointed. So far, her moves seem to confirm my earlier expressions she has more potential for successful governing than many expected.

https://twitter.com/nycpa/status/1427819112345001986

Actually doubt Williams is chosen for lt. gov. One of the black lawmakers from NYC are more likely in my opinion.

I wonder whether there's actually going to be a real primary challenge for Hochul? If she maneuvers the state safely through the coming months, why would Dems replace the 1st female gov? Same actually happened with Gilibrand, who was expected to be challenged in 2010 but never actually was. Like Hochul, she was a rep from a conservative district and suddenly elevated to a position of power. The parallels are striking.

Possible she runs virtually unopposed, but I don't want to bet at it at this point. The parallels with Gillibrand are striking indeed, though I don't know, for some reason I don't like Gillibrand very much while I find Kathy Hochul very likeable.

Gilibrand strikes me as the mom who constantly complains to the PTA about peanut butter while Hochul feels like she doesn’t care if her kids smoke weed “just be smart about it”

What is this…based on? I see these kinds of comparisons of female politicians to different suburban mom archetypes of all the time and much less often for men.

Men (and I guess some women too) like placing female politicians and women in the public sphere into archetypes/boxes. I don't know if this is strictly cause of sexist thinking (though it's part of it) but it's very obvious. Think of how many people instantly compare Janet Yellen or Ruth Bader Ginsburg to their grandmothers, for instance.

[LabourJersey]

Williams also tweeted this, but I guess we just have to wait whom ultimately gets appointed. So far, her moves seem to confirm my earlier expressions she has more potential for successful governing than many expected.

https://twitter.com/nycpa/status/1427819112345001986

Actually doubt Williams is chosen for lt. gov. One of the black lawmakers from NYC are more likely in my opinion.

I wonder whether there's actually going to be a real primary challenge for Hochul? If she maneuvers the state safely through the coming months, why would Dems replace the 1st female gov? Same actually happened with Gilibrand, who was expected to be challenged in 2010 but never actually was. Like Hochul, she was a rep from a conservative district and suddenly elevated to a position of power. The parallels are striking.

Possible she runs virtually unopposed, but I don't want to bet at it at this point. The parallels with Gillibrand are striking indeed, though I don't know, for some reason I don't like Gillibrand very much while I find Kathy Hochul very likeable.

Gilibrand strikes me as the mom who constantly complains to the PTA about peanut butter while Hochul feels like she doesn’t care if her kids smoke weed “just be smart about it”

What is this…based on? I see these kinds of comparisons of female politicians to different suburban mom archetypes of all the time and much less often for men.

Men (and I guess some women too) like placing female politicians and women in the public sphere into archetypes/boxes. I don't know if this is strictly cause of sexist thinking (though it's part of it) but it's very obvious. Think of how many people instantly compare Janet Yellen or Ruth Bader Ginsburg to their grandmothers, for instance.

A wise politician though knows how to exploit this - see "Frau" Merkel.

Definitely true! Smart politicians can use this to their advantage. Though I guess it's easier for those in parliamentary systems (Merkel, Thatcher, Golda Meir, Jacinda, etc.) than the US system.

[LabourJersey]

Does Cuomo have a path to the nomination? He wasn't far behind Hochul in that poll and has a huge warchest.

I think that poll was at least in part name recognition.

I just can't see a situation where he actually pulls off a win. He might have a big warchest but I imagine a lot of his main donors will ignore him if he tries a comeback