NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hochul would be toast in the primary if she sought a full term as Governor, the NY Democratic Party is not gonna let a random upstater have that job long-term.  Tish James would almost certainly have right of first refusal, regardless of what Hochul does.  Even if James didn't run for whatever reason, the nomination would just go to some other NYC politician rather than Hochul.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

Why wouldn't James run for Governor?  I mean, if anything, it's more likely Hochul doesn't run and either way, it'd be James' race to lose.

In any case, it's not Hochul herself that's the problem.  Most NYC Democrats will feel no loyalty to her and likely regard her as some random nobody from upstate who got lucky.  If not James, then Hochul will lose just as badly to whichever non-De Blasio NYC politician decides to run instead.  

This is one of those races where even if Hochul does everything right and her non-De Blasio NYC opponent does everything wrong (short of having a career-ending scandal), there's still probably not a realistic path to victory for Hochul.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I am really wondering what the political strategy is for the Democrats. Who is the establishmen's preferred Governor?

Hochul for sure. Or maybe Tish James.

It’s Tish James, Hochul would need to face multiple credible NYC Dems to have a shot at being anything more than a lame duck caretaker.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How do you see a Hochul vs Leticia James primary shaping up?

James steamrolls Hochul

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's a shame that it looks like it won't be Jumaane, as picking him would've been a kick-ass party-unifying move:

https://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1426571401092345858

Wasn’t Williams arrested for domestic violence?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Suozzi even running? I don’t see much point to his campaign. Does anyone who isn’t a Republican think Hochul is too left?

Yeah, Souzzi would’ve been much better off running for re-election.  He’s “only” 59 and has a seat on Ways and Means.  He could easily have ended up chairing a Ways and Means subcommittee during the next Democratic House majority and probably wouldn’t lose in 2022 as long as he’s not asleep at the wheel.  I get that his dream job is clearly being Governor, but he’s never gonna win a statewide primary.  For better or worse, just isn’t in the cards and probably never was either. 

Being a Congressman is a better consolation prize than he had any right to expect, especially after he lost re-election as Nassau County Executive.  It was only dumb luck that his political career had a second wind and he’s throwing that away for a suicide run.  Even if Hochul somehow imploded, it still wouldn’t be him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cuomo would likely be doing better than Hochul.Say what you will about the guy but he understood how NY’s swing voters think, and he wouldn’t have been asleep while Republicans attacked him for months for being pro-crime. He may have even done the smart thing and repealed the horrendously unpopular bail reform and/or fired some of the most egregiously pro-crime DAs.

Imagine actually believing this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lol not even close.

https://twitter.com/SamMellins/status/1625950859640115218?s=20

Why on God's green Earth did she push for this so hard and ruin so much of her image and political capital? Did she really think LaSalle had a chance?

Like her predecessor, Hochul is operating under the notion that the proper way to govern as a Democrat is to spit on the party's left flank while appealing to right-wingers. This may have worked well during the Clinton era but is now largely obsolete (and I believe this is a major reason why Democrats underperformed in NY in 2021-22).

This is different.

You know Cuomo wouldn't have gotten in this mess.

Cuomo is the reason the maps were struck down. He he picked better judges, Democrats might have done even better in the State Senate and maybe even kept the House.

It's different, in that Cuomo would have known to either not fight a war in public over this or to get him confirmed without a fuss.

Can you imagive Cuomo threatening to sue his own party over LaSalle ?
Or Cuomo failing to get his way in private to confirm him ?

Yes, I can imagine both those things happening very easily.  Cuomo wasn’t some sort of political genius.