NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Babeuf]

Have been very impressed by Ron Kim throughout this saga. He's really held his own and is waging an effective media campaign against Cuomo.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1367663578136928258

He's done.

That's what we said last time, albeit legislative leadership has now finally drawn its line in the sand - at least in terms of the sexual harassment allegations - as to what it'll take (just 1 more) for them to push him out:

https://twitter.com/morganfmckay/status/1367628243810066432

The NY Democratic Party has a habit of sticking up for sexual creeps all the way to criminals, but I just have a gut feeling that being a sexual creep AND allowing your aides to alter nursing home death statistics to save face politically (during the worst pandemic in recent human history) will put him over the edge.

That or Jay Jacobs really doesn't care if this state flips red. My money is seriously shifting to the GOP candidate pulling off a massive upset.

Jay Jacobs will stick by Cuomo to the very end. He's the most loyal Cuomo hack. It will be the legislative leaders who end this, if anyone.

[Babeuf]

I asked this in one of the polling threads, but it’s probably a better match for this megathread.

If Cuomo runs and wins the Dem nomination, will the WFP and WEP nominate him too?

I doubt it this time because they have already called for his resignation. Nominating him after that would make them look like a complete joke.

In order to keep their ballot line they have to win a certain # of votes for their gubernatorial candidate (in 2020 Cuomo raised this threshold). That's why in 2018 they opposed him and then turned around and nominated him after the primary, they're terrified of losing their ballot line. It looked extremely cowardly but there was a reason for it.

But if Cuomo is nominated again I'm sure there would be enough votes for a third party left wing campaign on the WFP line to keep them over the threshold for the permanent statewide ballot line. So we'll see, but I don't think they'd give him their ballot line in 2022 if he's the nominee.

WEP is a Cuomo controlled party, created to take votes from the WFP and try to push them under the threshold, they'll nominate him if he runs.

[Babeuf]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1367870263841484802?s=20

Hochul really ought to be on calls with top state Democratic leaders constantly at this point - this is her make-or-break career moment. She either knifes Cuomo and gets the top job, which she could potentially hold for a long time and maybe even have a shot at running for President some day, or she's perpetually tarnished by association with him and never manages higher office again (maybe she could run for Congress again some day but nothing statewide - there just isn't room for an Upstater in the primaries, among other things).

Not sure about this. If Cuomo's gone, she'll want to take over the Cuomo electoral machine and his ties with real estate, business, and the large unions and knifing Cuomo is not the way to inherit their support (whatever's left of it).

It's a tricky situation for her, but best for her to be seen as having power be thrust upon her imo.

[Babeuf]

Also of note, now that Speaker Heastie has initiated an impeachment enquiry in the NY Assembly's Judiciary Committee.

A letter was sent from 59 Democratic members of the combined Assembly and Senate, calling on Cuomo to resign. Most importantly, 40 of those members were in the Assembly. That number, combined with the GOP members of the Assembly would be sufficient to impeach Cuomo.

The numbers are already there for impeachment - as long as it effectively clears committee.

Letter for context:

Do we have confirmation that the GOP is cooperative here? I could see them voting No if that would be decisive in order to give them a chance at winning the Governorship next year.

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/assembly-gop-plans-to-introduce-impeachment-resolution-against-governor-andrew-cuomo/

Most of them should be on board unless they change their mind.

[Babeuf]

How does Cuomo survive the impeachment trial in the senate?

He doesn't. Only way out is to resign before conviction.

[Babeuf]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

[Babeuf]

Hochul’s budget proposal came out and includes pushing for new charter schools. This will be a big fight with the teachers unions and their allies in the legislature.

Already signs of pushback:
https://twitter.com/zachreports/status/1620858651035729920?s=46&t=OCl-QDRwDE...

[Babeuf]

Both will be easily confirmed.

Wilson is a solid liberal. Halligan is a bit of a blank slate but clerked for Breyer and was nominated for a judgeship by Obama (blocked by the GOP) so should be ok, although not as liberal as Wilson.