NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates (user search)
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  NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates (search mode)
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Author Topic: NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates  (Read 110794 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: May 28, 2019, 03:33:26 PM »

He'll be reelected.

The only NY GOPers who can beat him are: Marc Molinaro, Steve Neuhaus and Michael LiPetri.

Cuomo fatigue may set in, but he will be reelected barring corruption charge or something.

A NY GOPer may win the governorship in 2026 or 2030---if Gov. Hochul has a low approval rating.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2019, 09:56:38 PM »

He'll be reelected.

The only NY GOPers who can beat him are: Marc Molinaro, Steve Neuhaus and Michael LiPetri.

Cuomo fatigue may set in, but he will be reelected barring corruption charge or something.

A NY GOPer may win the governorship in 2026 or 2030---if Gov. Hochul has a low approval rating.
You think Hochul will run and win in 2026?

She might. She would be a one termer. Neuhaus would win in 2030.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2020, 03:56:02 PM »

Former NY governor George Pataki may rekindle the Cuomo-Pataki feud, by running again.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/18/george-pataki-warns-big-apple-on-brink-nyc-is-going-to-die/
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2020, 08:16:38 PM »

Lewis County Sheriff and Republican Mike Carpinelli is IN (he announced on June 8th lmao)

Carpinelli appeals to blue collar Italians-Irish, typical Northeastern GOP bloc.

Carpinelli, Molinaro, Astorino, Paladino, Faso appealed to the Northeastern GOP Italian bloc, although a lot of Italian-Americans are Democrats too.

Likely/Safe D.

Harry Wilson would hold Cuomo to 10 points.

But a Republican doesn't win NY until probably 2026

NY is too blue
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2020, 07:48:46 PM »

Cuomo wins reelection but by 10-15 points. 2026 he retires, or a Republican wins
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2021, 09:09:18 PM »

Fox News Weather Lady Janice Dean may run.

She could take Suffolk from Cuomo....

https://nypost.com/2021/01/23/fox-news-janice-dean-called-to-run-against-cuomo-in-2022/
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bronz4141
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« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2021, 11:12:47 PM »

A "growing number" of Republicans are calling for Fox News Weatherwoman Janice Dean to run against Cuomo, and she's been endorsed by Megyn Kelly. Notable that she's releasing a book this March as well, though it appears to be apolitical.

https://nypost.com/2021/01/23/fox-news-janice-dean-called-to-run-against-cuomo-in-2022/



I could see her doing REALLY well in Western and Upstate NY, but she'll get destroyed elsewhere. Cuomo wins by a wider margin than he did in 2018.

I'd say the fact that she's the only potential GOP nominee with a major national presence makes her the frontrunner by far, compared to Carpinelli and Gibson.

Why does Cuomo win by a larger margin than in '18? Because she is from Fox News?

Also, she would destroy Cuomo on Long Island...the suburban soccer moms would like her.

Cuomo would still win by 10-15 points, but Dean would be his biggest challenge because she has no political baggage. Her husband is a FDNY firefighter, and she'd win the police/fire votes.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2021, 11:08:08 PM »

Janice Dean was on Fox recently with State GOP Chairman Nick Langworthy discussing the nursing home controversy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSmtSufS8jQ

Looks like the nomination is hers to lose.

Sure if they want to lose by more than they necessarily could


She would lose by 10-15 points.

I can see Lee Zeldin pulling a Tim Ryan and realizing that his seat may be axed due to the Census and run for statewide office--governor or AG---most likely.

If Zeldin runs and picks Dean as his LG, they would still lose.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2021, 07:44:49 PM »

I think Cuomo will get forced out - probably not a resignation, but the state party telling him that they'll unanimously endorse whoever runs against him out of Hochul or any mainstream Congressmember. He'll leave, probably escape prosecution, and be succeeded by Hochul.

You really think that Cuomo will be forced out by his own party? The party that he has ruled for years?
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2021, 05:04:55 PM »

Stefanik is going to be the next governor (next elected governor if Cuomo resigns) if she wants the job.

Nope Hochul or James will be. I could see Stefanik being the nominee though.

Yeah, I doubt Stefanik would have a chance against any serious Democrat. New York is just too blue. Furthermore, I'm sure Hochul and/or James would improve in Upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance.

A New York Republican has to run a Pataki 1994-1998-2002 campaign......they need to make inroads in the NYC suburbs.....they can, especially with police unions endorsing the NYGOP now...
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2021, 11:23:37 PM »

Stefanik is going to be the next governor (next elected governor if Cuomo resigns) if she wants the job.

Nope Hochul or James will be. I could see Stefanik being the nominee though.

Yeah, I doubt Stefanik would have a chance against any serious Democrat. New York is just too blue. Furthermore, I'm sure Hochul and/or James would improve in Upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance.

A New York Republican has to run a Pataki 1994-1998-2002 campaign......they need to make inroads in the NYC suburbs.....they can, especially with police unions endorsing the NYGOP now...

It's not the late 1990s anymore. It's like saying a Pete Wilson Republican can win California or Phil Bredesen type Democrat can get elected governor of Tennessee. Even in Republican wave elections like 2010 and 2014, they got blown out. And all the candidates they have to offer or who have a chance at the nomination don't have it to overcome the partisan lean and strength of the Democratic candidates. I just don't see it.

I know it is not the 1990s-2000s anymore, but a Edgar/Ryan/Baker/Hogan/Whitman/Pataki type can win NY....common knowledge says that a NYGOPer has to win 30 percent in NYC.....I think a Republican wins Staten Island for the first time since 2002 at the gubernatorial level....
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bronz4141
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2021, 07:45:09 PM »

I wonder if Assemblyman Andrew Hevesi would run...

Hevesi is the son of disgraced state Controller Alan Hevesi who resigned in 2007 due to corruption....

Also, I don't see a Republican winning NY....

NY is too blue, yes, but a Republican winning even in a Biden midterm in the age of Black Lives Matter when they may run people like Janice Dean, Lee Zeldin, etc. who are in cahoots with the police unions and they don't believe in police brutality.....

Cuomo could hurt Upstate and LI Dems on the ballot.....Kevin Thomas, James Gaughran, Todd Kaminsky can go down if Cuomo is on the ballot in 2022

Dean is having a field day over this.......

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bronz4141
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2021, 07:47:52 PM »

Lee Zeldin considering running for NY governor

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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2021, 10:04:11 AM »

Somewhat of an effort post coming:

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez should run for Governor of New York

She already meets the constitutional requirements since she’s over 30 and has lived in the state long enough.

She clearly has ambitions for higher office and potentially the presidency. What offices are there that are higher than US Representative and position one for their next step to be the presidency? Senate and Governor. Kirsten Gillibramd is one of the two senators, and she’s young and doesn’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. The other senator, Chuck Schumer, is the Majority Leader and also not going anywhere anytime soon. Cuomo, however, is as weak as he’s ever been and far more vulnerable to a primary challenge. The primary ads for a young woman running against a man accused of sexual assault write themselves.

Unlike any other potential primary challengers, Ocasio is already well known statewide and could probably get any other progressive challengers to Cuomo to drop out and endorse her the moment she announces her candidacy. Her platform could be the standard progressive agenda, plus transparency and ethics reform in Albany.

She’s also got a big enough following that any silencing tactics from Cuomo would be less likely to work and more likely to backfire. The other candidates thinking of running look like people Cuomo can just ignore. He can’t ignore Ocasio or he will lose.

Going from US representative to governor is not an unprecedented move, either. Mike Pence did it, and so did others.

Last point: What would be a better platform for Ocasio to run for President than implementing progressive policies in one of the most populated states in the country? She could also still run for the Senate later of one of the seats opens up.

She should not run.....she would lose to Weik or Dean or Harry Wilson.....
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2021, 12:54:58 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2021, 01:05:47 PM by Suburbia »

Hochul will be the incumbent Governor by summer at the very latest and is likely not going anywhere for a while after that.

You think Cuomo will be forced out? Wow....

Can Hochul win Black voters and Latinos, and other voters???

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bronz4141
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« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2021, 04:06:51 PM »

Stefanik is going to be the next governor (next elected governor if Cuomo resigns) if she wants the job.

Nope Hochul or James will be. I could see Stefanik being the nominee though.

Yeah, I doubt Stefanik would have a chance against any serious Democrat. New York is just too blue. Furthermore, I'm sure Hochul and/or James would improve in Upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance.

A New York Republican has to run a Pataki 1994-1998-2002 campaign......they need to make inroads in the NYC suburbs.....they can, especially with police unions endorsing the NYGOP now...
what about Pataki  himself?

Too old and irrelevant....he had his time

NYGOP needs someone new and dynamic....
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2021, 09:08:14 PM »

Long Island Democratic Senator and huge Cuomo ally:




He's running out of friends to turn to.

Kaminsky is saying this because he could go down in redding Long Island in '22....
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2021, 09:11:42 PM »

At this point my guess is he promises to retire in 2022 or resigns in exchange for not being charged, in any case, Hochul is now the favorite for 2022 Governor, in my opinion.

Hochul is not popular with Black New Yorkers....it's James or someone else.....
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bronz4141
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2021, 04:46:38 PM »

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, a Italian-American suburban county executive in the mold of Cuomo and Suozzi could run, but his brand is not popular........too centrist, too suburban, too white
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bronz4141
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« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2021, 08:40:56 PM »

Does anyone think this is a potential setup?
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2021, 07:54:43 PM »

Emerson now has Cuomo underwater:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure/No opinion 14%

Men: 33/56
Women: 43/40

Should Cuomo be reelected in 2022?
Yes 36%
No 64%

Should Cuomo resign over Nursing Home handling?
Yes 45%
No 36%
Unsure 18%

700 RV, 3/1-3/2

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-york-state-poll-governor-cuomo-struggling-amid-controversies
Interesting that women approve of Coumo more than men do. You'd expect the opposite if anything.

A lot of women like his lockdown rules, a lot of men do not.....
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bronz4141
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« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2021, 03:54:45 PM »

Does anyone think this is a potential setup?

What, like everyone conspiring to force out of power the governor who made his name in white-collar financial crimes on the eve of the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis, and having him replaced with someone literally blind?

Yes, with Eliot Spitzer, a lot of people felt that was the case....a lot of people....
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bronz4141
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« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2021, 09:53:43 PM »


That's what we said last time, albeit legislative leadership has now finally drawn its line in the sand - at least in terms of the sexual harassment allegations - as to what it'll take (just 1 more) for them to push him out:



The NY Democratic Party has a habit of sticking up for sexual creeps all the way to criminals, but I just have a gut feeling that being a sexual creep AND allowing your aides to alter nursing home death statistics to save face politically (during the worst pandemic in recent human history) will put him over the edge.

That or Jay Jacobs really doesn't care if this state flips red. My money is seriously shifting to the GOP candidate pulling off a massive upset.

Do you think NY can flip red in 2022, despite it being a Biden midterm? Who can win out of the NYGOP? Randy Levine? Malliotakis?
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bronz4141
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« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2021, 09:58:30 PM »


That's what we said last time, albeit legislative leadership has now finally drawn its line in the sand - at least in terms of the sexual harassment allegations - as to what it'll take (just 1 more) for them to push him out:



The NY Democratic Party has a habit of sticking up for sexual creeps all the way to criminals, but I just have a gut feeling that being a sexual creep AND allowing your aides to alter nursing home death statistics to save face politically (during the worst pandemic in recent human history) will put him over the edge.

That or Jay Jacobs really doesn't care if this state flips red. My money is seriously shifting to the GOP candidate pulling off a massive upset.
Jay Jacobs will stick by Cuomo to the very end. He's the most loyal Cuomo hack. It will be the legislative leaders who end this, if anyone.

Someone needs to, or (insert as horrible of a candidate as Nick Langworthy wants to run) will be our next Governor.

I'm predicting Janice Dean, ESPECIALLY after this reveal, but Zeldin might jump on the opportunity given how easy of a win it'd be.

Zeldin can't win.....he'd supercharge Black and Latino turnout----Dean is too Karenish, it has to be someone who can win both wings of the GOP and appeal to Black and Latino voters--Dean, Zeldin don't think police brutality is a thing
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bronz4141
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« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2021, 03:24:54 PM »


That's what we said last time, albeit legislative leadership has now finally drawn its line in the sand - at least in terms of the sexual harassment allegations - as to what it'll take (just 1 more) for them to push him out:



The NY Democratic Party has a habit of sticking up for sexual creeps all the way to criminals, but I just have a gut feeling that being a sexual creep AND allowing your aides to alter nursing home death statistics to save face politically (during the worst pandemic in recent human history) will put him over the edge.

That or Jay Jacobs really doesn't care if this state flips red. My money is seriously shifting to the GOP candidate pulling off a massive upset.
Jay Jacobs will stick by Cuomo to the very end. He's the most loyal Cuomo hack. It will be the legislative leaders who end this, if anyone.

Someone needs to, or (insert as horrible of a candidate as Nick Langworthy wants to run) will be our next Governor.

I'm predicting Janice Dean, ESPECIALLY after this reveal, but Zeldin might jump on the opportunity given how easy of a win it'd be.

Zeldin can't win.....he'd supercharge Black and Latino turnout----Dean is too Karenish, it has to be someone who can win both wings of the GOP and appeal to Black and Latino voters--Dean, Zeldin don't think police brutality is a thing

Calling it now - NYGOP will be running 30-second ads of Dean telling her story about the nursing home family member death over some sad music, and that will win people over. She brings herself to the center and disavows some of the Fox News rhetoric she pushes? That's a candidate that can beat Cuomo.

Keith Wofford might be the closing thing you’re describing. To win New York you’d need democrats and democrats aren’t voting fir a fox persona 

This, Dems will not vote for a Fox persona, that is true. Wofford could appeal to Black voters and white and Latino voters.......

Wofford and John Burnett, who ran for NYC auditor in 2013.......
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