NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates (user search)
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  NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates (search mode)
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Author Topic: NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates  (Read 110787 times)
warandwar
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« on: August 04, 2020, 03:44:48 PM »

Jumaane Williams could run with Helen Rosenthal, Ron Kim, Thomas Duane, Brad Lander, Zephyr Teachout, Costa Constantinides, or Justin Brannan as his running mate. The real challenge would be to win over enough upstate and minority votes that he could beat back the machine.

Jumaane's running for Schumer's seat. At least that's the word on the street.

Out of your list, only Ron Kim would be interested in running. There's some Monroe County politicians I could see joining the ticket. Jamaal Bowman, too, but he wouldn't be interested, I don't think.
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warandwar
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2020, 12:12:41 PM »

So are the Working Families Party going to grow a pair of balls and run their own candidate? Seriously, if they co-nominate Cuomo after everything that has happened, they deserve to lose their ballot access.

Their candidate would get like 5% statewide and Cuomo 53-56% rather than 58-63%. What would be the point?

If you don't know how elections in New York work, why are you posting?

The Working Families Party have to get 150k votes to stay on the ballot for the next 4 years. If they don't, they die. That's the point. Cuomo has deliberately taken actions to kill the party with his underlings tripling the ballot access line to where based on 2018 results the only party other than the Democrats and Republicans that would stay on the ballot is the Conservative Party of New York.

I just don't think minor parties make a lot of sense under this voting system, since it's unlikely they ever elect a governor or statewide officials.

Again, if you don't know how elections in New York work, why are you posting?

The Working Families Party's raison d'etre is to be a left-wing force on the Democrats to force them to nominate more left-wing people instead of moderates due to New York's fusion system.
Under the new law, theyd only really be able to maintain their ballot line by running a somewhat succesful third party candidate for governor. They're likely to do so, imo - theyve grown much more combattive recently.
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warandwar
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2020, 12:44:59 PM »

Biaggi primarying Cuomo would be hilarious. She's aggressively oikophobic whereas her grandfather was the public personification of ethnic conservative police "crack their skulls" mentality in 1968. Glowing profiles of Mario Biaggi the "Supercop" in every New York paper. Just mention his record once and she'll lose her mind. Cuomo will roll over her.
Just mention Cuomo's name and she'll get cash from gullible progressives. Evidentally she doesnt find life as a State Senator all that appealing.
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warandwar
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« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2022, 06:03:05 PM »

I don't think you can emphasize enough how sleepy this race is. There aren't even that many tv ads. I don't think I've gotten a single mailer (unlike last year's council and mayoral races). I don't see how Archilla wins in that scenario. Interested in seeing where she runs ahead of Williams and vice versa.
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warandwar
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« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2022, 02:50:52 PM »

Leaving this here ahead of the primary tomorrow

Quote
Hochul wasn’t supposed to have it this easy

The state's first female governor holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising.

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s path to Tuesday’s Democratic primary was not expected to be so smooth.

Last fall, she faced the prospect of a major challenger in Attorney General Tish James and questions over whether becoming the unexpected governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned last August would translate into support among voters who hardly knew her.

Flash forward to now: The state’s first female governor appears set to cruise through her primary against Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, using the likely win as a springboard toward the general election in November.

She holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising. But she also hasn’t had to put in the work required in a competitive primary, leaving her to make a cold start against the ultimate Republican nominee.

If she wins the primary and wins again in November, she would become one of the most powerful female governors in the nation, with a sweeping platform to counteract a potential Republican takeover of Congress on key Democratic issues that include gun control, abortion rights and climate change.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/hochul-new-york-governor-primary-00041447

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.
Well the NY Dems are internally quite worried about the general election. They know Hochul needs to run a strong race to bring some state senators and house members up with her. She'll win but it'll be difficult to win big, which is what they want. Thats when cuomo's allies will strike.
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warandwar
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2022, 09:55:57 PM »

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.
I don't think a majority of New Yorkers even know who these people are. This was the lowest turnout in more than a decade. Mickey mouse win for Hochul
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warandwar
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« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2022, 02:20:29 PM »

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

Agreed. I thought it would be a much more crowded primary and much closer than it was.
I was locked in a room with Tish James on Valentine's Day (long story) and she made it very clear that Cuomo's allies forced her out of the race. I don't think this was an "underestimation" of Hochul, just Cuomo's long revenge.
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warandwar
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2022, 05:53:54 AM »

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

Agreed. I thought it would be a much more crowded primary and much closer than it was.
I was locked in a room with Tish James on Valentine's Day (long story) and she made it very clear that Cuomo's allies forced her out of the race. I don't think this was an "underestimation" of Hochul, just Cuomo's long revenge.

I don't know, how are Cuomo allies supposed to "push her out"? And why in favor of Hochul, who was not very liked by him either (already wanted to dump her from the ticket in 2018). James withdrew because she didn't gain traction and her candidacy seemed unnecessary against a scandal-free governor (and first woman chief executive) who just took over the positions and was about clean things up. Unlike Williams and Suozzi, she didn't even oppose Hochul for ideological reasons.

Hochul played her cards very wisely right after taking office, not just by managing to raise a ton of money, which James failed at. She also established many personal relations into the state legislature, which allowed her to get things done quickly. She also built a solid network of connections all over state, which she crisscrossed during her time as lt. governor (as such, she was barely in Albany and just out meeting a lot of people and leaders from all walks of life, promoting the government's agenda).
Tish James took a clear ideological stance to Hochul's left. If you don't get how Cuomo's allies can push someone out, you don't understand New York politics. As if it's a coincidence that Hochul raised tons but James struggled. As if there wasn't a massive whisper campaign within Albany against James, as if Cuomo's allies hadn't started spending $$$ on ad campaigns across New York throwing mud in James' face.
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warandwar
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2022, 01:13:57 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2022, 01:24:26 PM by warandwar »

(A) ending cash bail and (B) reducing the funding for police while imposing all sorts of measures (e. g. ending qualified immunity) that impact their ability to maintain public safety.

The condition on the ground in NY is that (A) there are far more criminals roaming free while awaiting trial on new violent charges and (B) those criminals who are at large, pending charges or not, have no fear of enduring pretrial incarceration should they rob, beat, or even kill again.  Pretrial incarceration and significant bail are means to incapacitate criminals to keep them from committing more crimes while awaiting resolution of their charges, but New York's criminals are not incapacitated at all during their pretrial period.  They are not only free to commit new crimes, they are free to intimidate witnesses in ways that will enable them to escape a just finding of guilt at trial.  There is no protection for the average citizen, and there is even less protection for the victim of a crime from their perpetrator during the pretrial period.

You have no clue what you are talking about. "Cash bail" wasn't ended in New York - the charges which are bail eligible were changed. All "violent" charges that you mention here - witness tampering and violent felonies are bail/pretrial detention eligible. Judges can still use (it should be said, fairly arbitrary) measures to set bail in other cases. Not to mention, are free to set bail on property, set travel restrictions, so on and so on. The stories you mention (being free to "kill again") are quite literally impossible under ny state law, so i am not sure what evidence you are citing here. If you are talking about violence, it might be appropriate to mention the death toll in Rikers has already exceeded that of last year - despite the multiple federal decrees finding that the jail systematically violates people's constitutional rights it remains open and a hellhole to this day. There were roughly 80000 people who would have gone to a jail like Rikers had it not been for bail reform, but because of bail reform spent their pretrial period outside, with 0 documented threat to public safety. Meanwhile the rate of those who committed a violent crime during their pretrial period was essentially unchanged pre and post bail reform. Saving 80,000 people from places like Rikers is making our communities safer, period.

Read the Brennan Center's report (far from raging leftists): https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/facts-bail-reform-and-crime-rates-new-york-state
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warandwar
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2022, 09:51:03 AM »

Worth noting the PBA thinks Hochul will win, that's why they're endorsing Dems like Anna Kaplan and Stacey Pheffer-Amato. Whinging going on now isn't about November, it's about January. This is about ginning up support for the "three men in the room" to shift right, not about changing any of those men. Justifying it through many articles citing Zeldin's effectiveness...
It is New York, no one is honest and the result is predetermined.
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warandwar
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2022, 08:27:28 AM »

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.
This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.
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warandwar
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2022, 08:35:37 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2022, 08:43:23 AM by warandwar »

This could be a big deal



I have doubts. The Orthodox Jews vote almost entirely Republican anyway.
This is not true - they voted as a bloc for Cuomo and Mondaire Jones. They could very well sway the vote for Lawler in Rockland County.
YWN, fwiw, is not the whole community - it is the modox/yeshivish community. Chabad sectors have endorsed Zeldin as well (and Dem Assemblyman Brian Cunningham, lol). AFAIK Satmars, Bobovs, etc have yet to endorse....
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warandwar
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2022, 08:44:33 AM »

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.
This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

If that’s the case Cuomo is truly an awful person.
Took you this long to realize?
Yeah he is a total piece of sh**t - bully, venal, etc, etc.
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warandwar
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2022, 09:05:19 AM »

Hochul should take a page from Keith Ellison's 2018 playbook and spend the next week just running nasty ads against Zeldin that don't even mention her. Just drive Zeldin's negatives into the stratosphere. It's a lot easier to make voters hate Zeldin than like her.
This has been her entire campaign. Her issue is that NY voters don't need reasons to hate Republicans, they need reasons to like Hochul.

Might add that I suspect Cuomo's network downstate is holding back as revenge here. They have a lot to gain from a Hochul loss.

If that’s the case Cuomo is truly an awful person.
Took you this long to realize?
Yeah he is a total piece of sh**t - bully, venal, etc, etc.

I think Zeldin is going to pull an upset knowing what you said.
Personally, I doubt it. But it will be close
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warandwar
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2022, 11:08:25 AM »


Also worth noting that Cuomo and his family as a whole, developed a strong personal vote with the Italian American vote in the down state area

Do you have any data at all to back this up? First of all, it isnt 1920, there are plenty of Italians outside of "down-state." Second of all, if you go back to see the actual primary results, you'll see that Cuomo had a strong personal vote in *Western New York* - he has been dumping tons of money into the machines there through the state development agencies (google buffalo billions). There isn't an Italian American vote and hasnt been for decades.

People dont know what "machines" are. It is no one's fault - the media doesnt portray them accurately at all. But between 2018 and 2022, the Dem machine's big "TURNOUT" button fell apart - all of the traditional devices (churches, street outreach, dem clubs, nycha TA) were closed. Cuomo's personal network isn't among paisanos, but Clubs and Churches, especially a large network of Black churches. Combination of dropping off during covid, uncompetitive primaries, and cuomo's revenge means traditional mobilization infrastructure has atrophied.
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warandwar
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2022, 09:42:03 PM »

Interesting theory here:



When unnamed top democratic sources say things like "zeldin is surging and voters need to WAKE UP," they aren't saying that to be helpful to the reporter
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warandwar
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2022, 08:51:07 AM »

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.
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warandwar
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2022, 11:30:45 PM »

James Dolan's PAC is spending around 600k to keep the MSG tax break support Hochul. "Endorsed by James Dolan" seems like an effective attack on Hochul, lol.

I have no idea who that is and I doubt many other people do.
owner of the Knicks. Devil incarnate to many
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warandwar
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« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2022, 11:56:39 PM »

To what extent is this residual fallout from Cuomo?
nursing home deaths maaaaybe had some purchase still, but i don't think it was a relevant issue. The fallout is the coalition Cuomo mustered to replace the IDC as his muscle in the leg. They played up tough on crime, anti-immigrant, etc, etc messaging. Blanketed primaries with ads about this. Eventually the chickens come home to roost - many of those players prefered the hard sell/career advancement opportunities of Team Red.
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warandwar
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« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2022, 04:15:07 PM »

Could you see the NYC GOP doing well in the 2025 city council elections, bronz?

They currently have 5 seats in the city council, that isn't like the watershed 7 seats they had under Mayor Giuliani but they could add more, especially in the Canarsie area or Elmhurst with Latino voters...

I don't see another Republican mayor soon......however.....they would have to win Democrats and Independents...

I am surprised the NYGOP base did not move to FL or PA yet....they're still in the neighborhoods

I agree they could add more, but def not from the Canarsie area..



They already have the few Staten Island and South Brooklyn seats, their next targets should be Asian areas such as Flushing where Zeldin came in striking distance.

In addition to their current seats, some of their best targets imo are:

District 30, Biden + 14, based around Middle Village which is basically like "white flight" within the city itself. It's a realtively transit desert, pretty white, and notably less dense than the surrounding areas. Zeldin def won this district.

District 43, Biden + 12, heavily Asian district, usually very low turnout, and def voted for Zeldin in 2022. These are some of the more culturally conservative Asian communities in Bensonhurst.

District 44, Trump + 64, basically represented by a conservaDem rn with ties to the Orthodox Jewish community.

Honestly though, outside of these, any other possibilities require some huge re-alignment. I think the Asian seats out in Queens could be possible down the road if they put in the work to actually appeal to these communities.

True. Canarsie is now African American/Caribbean, although they are still some Italians there.

Yeah, Canarsie is what most NYers point to as *the* "hood".
No one has ever done this to me, and I have worked in Canarsie. It's where people grow up. It's the kind of place a city employee could afford to buy a house in 20 or 30 years ago.

Council elections are 2023, not 2025!
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warandwar
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« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2023, 11:47:04 PM »

Hochul’s budget proposal came out and includes pushing for new charter schools. This will be a big fight with the teachers unions and their allies in the legislature.

Already signs of pushback:




Any have any idea why Hochul seems to be politically pouring gasoline onto her already on fire self?

Maybe, after her relatively close call in 2022, she is already accepting that she won't run again or be renominated and therefore now thinks she has nothing to lose?
I think it is a mix of wanting to do everything she can to get back into Cuomo's good graces and trying to win back Nassau/burn the people she saw as dragging her down. She's fundamentally a bad politician with sh**t instincts who mostly wants to get her crew rich so there's always that.
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