NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Duke of York]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

I agree with your assessment. I was surprised both of them won every county. She should win fairly easily.

I've met Hochul. She is extremely likable.

Delgado very likely will run for Governor or Senator. I think the former is more probable.

[President Johnson]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

I agree with your assessment. I was surprised both of them won every county. She should win fairly easily.

I've met Hochul. She is extremely likable.

Delgado very likely will run for Governor or Senator. I think the former is more probable.

Could also depend on how long Hochul is in office since Delgando has plenty of time while Tish James may give it another shot whenever the seat opens. I personally would favor James to replace Merrick Garland though.

[Duke of York]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

I agree with your assessment. I was surprised both of them won every county. She should win fairly easily.

I've met Hochul. She is extremely likable.

Delgado very likely will run for Governor or Senator. I think the former is more probable.

Could also depend on how long Hochul is in office since Delgando has plenty of time while Tish James may give it another shot whenever the seat opens. I personally would favor James to replace Merrick Garland though.

Hochul will likely get at least two terms. Delagdo will be well positioned to be her successor at that point. James will be approaching seventy at that point. Age doesn't matter though.

[NYDem]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

[Duke of York]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

I agree and part of it is due to the fact she is first Upstate Governor since FDR and the first Governor from Buffalo since Grover Cleveland.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

[Duke of York]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

[NewYorkExpress]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

I think Hochul outright loses Nassau and Suffolk in addition to Staten Island, but she's going to clean house upstate.

[warandwar]

This was an amazing performance by Kathy Hochul, swept all counties and did very well in Upstate and on Long Island as well. I always insisted that people underestimated her political skills, this victory was hard work and fully earned. She has done pretty well in working with the legislature to get things done and has managed to score up important endorsements by reaching out to various groups.

I don't see the general election remotely competitive or Zeldin as a particularly strong candidate for New York. Just don't see it, he's a generic Republican hack with a strongly pro-Trump voting record and no real accomplishments. Although primaries are not really predictive for general matchups, Hochul should bring this home quite handily.

If she does end up with a strong victory and continues to get stuff done in Albany, I see no reason why she shouldn't be put in national spotlight. She might be one of the strongest Democratic women available then, and certainly stronger than Kamala. Her workingclass background from Buffalo might also be an asset here, and - though that's my personal opinion - comes off as a very likeable person.

Lastly, I was surprised by Delgado's strong performance. I thought he'd only win narrowly. People should keep an eye on him as well. He could go for governor or senator at a point when one seat is open.

I don't think a majority of New Yorkers even know who these people are. This was the lowest turnout in more than a decade. Mickey mouse win for Hochul

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think Hochul outright loses Nassau and Suffolk in addition to Staten Island, but she's going to clean house upstate.

I believe that Hochul will lose Staten Island & Suffolk County. However, I think that she'll win Nassau.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

Tbh, I'm not sure she's poised to make inroads in Upstate that much just because she's from there. Hochul from 2022 is different than 2011, she has moved left and supports strong gun laws. Isn't Upstate a very pro-gun region? That's also why Cuomo lost that much Upstate support from 2010 to 2014.

Schumer will for sure perform best in Upstate on the ticket, though I expect him to severely underperform his showings from 2016. He'd be lucky to do similar than Gillibrand in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They keep polling this race and no NY Sen, IL Sen and Gov and MD GE polls and MD Gov primary is 7/19

[wbrocks67]

NYT is now showing <95% for both races. Was there really only 1.3M total turnout with the two parties combined?

[Sir Mohamed]

NYT is now showing <95% for both races. Was there really only 1.3M total turnout with the two parties combined?

Seems like, yup. Not good.

Mr. Trump needs to return to the WH to drive turnout up

[President Johnson]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a right-wing candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a gard-right candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

Zeldin is from Long Island, so he should have strong regional support in both Nassau and Suffolk.

Richmond is much further to the right than both Nassau and Suffolk, quite honestly, and I'd be surprised if Hochul even comes within ten points there.

[President Johnson]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a gard-right candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

Zeldin is from Long Island, so he should have strong regional support in both Nassau and Suffolk.

Richmond is much further to the right than both Nassau and Suffolk, quite honestly, and I'd be surprised if Hochul even comes within ten points there.

As for Richmond (Staten Island), I definitely agree. It heavily leans Republican.

[JMT]

Does anyone know if Jumaane Williams and Ana Maria Archila will remain on the November ballot as the nominees for the Working Families Party? It’s pretty hard to remove your name from the ballot in New York, so I wonder if their names will stay on the ballot. If they remain on the ballot, will they actively campaign? Or will they endorse Hochul/Delgado?

[Duke of York]

Does anyone know if Jumaane Williams and Ana Maria Archila will remain on the November ballot as the nominees for the Working Families Party? It’s pretty hard to remove your name from the ballot in New York, so I wonder if their names will stay on the ballot. If they remain on the ballot, will they actively campaign? Or will they endorse Hochul/Delgado?

they will probably be nominated for another office on a minor party line. That's how Nixon got off the ballot in 2018.

[NewYorkExpress]

Does anyone know if Jumaane Williams and Ana Maria Archila will remain on the November ballot as the nominees for the Working Families Party? It’s pretty hard to remove your name from the ballot in New York, so I wonder if their names will stay on the ballot. If they remain on the ballot, will they actively campaign? Or will they endorse Hochul/Delgado?

I can easily see Williams remaining on the ballot, but I think Archila will accept a nomination for a judgeship somewhere.

[The Dowager Mod]

Interesting.

"For the first time in 80 years, the gubernatorial race will only be a two-way contest. Only Kathy Hochul (D) and Lee Zeldin (R/C) qualified for the ballot."

[President Johnson]

Interesting.

"For the first time in 80 years, the gubernatorial race will only be a two-way contest. Only Kathy Hochul (D) and Lee Zeldin (R/C) qualified for the ballot."

So after all, Hochul has a chance to crack 60% of the vote?

[Duke of York]

Interesting.

"For the first time in 80 years, the gubernatorial race will only be a two-way contest. Only Kathy Hochul (D) and Lee Zeldin (R/C) qualified for the ballot."

So after all, Hochul has a chance to crack 60% of the vote?

It’s possible she could and it’s likely she flips several upstate counties.

[kwabbit]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

She prolly dramatically underperforms Cuomos performance on Long and Staten Island margins cancelling at least part of her improvements upstate out.

what makes you think that?

I mean he outright won Richmond and Suffolk counties and did very well in Nassau. I think being Italian helped him. I doubt Hochul wins either Richmond or Suffolk

Aren't these suburban countries with upper middle class whites that tend to the political center? How would a right-wing candidate like Zeldin appeal to them? I feel like Hochul is a good fit for that.

It’s not an ideology thing, it’s a regionalism upstate vs downstate thing. Cuomo was the downstate candidate, Molinaro was the upstate candidate. The results reflected that. This time it’s reversed. Hochul is also far western, from Buffalo/Niagara. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins Niagara while losing Nassau.