NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates
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Torie
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« Reply #1450 on: June 19, 2022, 10:03:08 AM »

Looks all but a lock for Hochul. I think there's slight potential of an upset in the LG race, given Archila seems to have a lot more endorsements and is running a campaign independent of Williams.

I'm in Delgado's former district. Getting a lot of Hochul and Delgado ads, yet to see any others.


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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1451 on: June 22, 2022, 09:11:28 PM »

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.
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Citizen Wesley
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« Reply #1452 on: June 22, 2022, 09:56:10 PM »

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

Archila winning would be wild, and would really drive home the complete and utter pointlessness of taking Delgado out of a competitive House district.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1453 on: June 22, 2022, 10:07:44 PM »

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

Archila winning would be wild, and would really drive home the complete and utter pointlessness of taking Delgado out of a competitive House district.

I don't think Delgado would have won reelection anyways.
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Citizen Wesley
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« Reply #1454 on: June 22, 2022, 10:12:30 PM »

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

Archila winning would be wild, and would really drive home the complete and utter pointlessness of taking Delgado out of a competitive House district.

I don't think Delgado would have won reelection anyways.

The new NY-19 is Biden +4.6, which would be difficult in this environment (especially against a candidate like Molinaro) but not impossible for a strong incumbent by any means. Instead it looks like we're basically running some guy and the seat is very likely gone. He should've gone down fighting.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1455 on: June 23, 2022, 10:04:40 AM »

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

I have doubts about this. I never heard of her before a few days ago.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1456 on: June 24, 2022, 01:12:47 AM »

Antonio Delgado and Ana Maria Archila trading high profile endorsements in the battleground Lieutenant Gubernatorial primary.

https://nypost.com/2022/06/22/aoc-endorses-lieutenant-governor-candidate-ana-maria-archila/

Delgado picked up the endorsement of the Uniformed Firefighters Association of New York, becoming the latest labor group to endorse him.

Archila, the favorite of progressives, was endorsed by Mijente, and more importantly, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

I think the Lieutenant Governor's primary, at least on the Democratic side, is currently Lean Archila. She's got great energy behind her, is running a campaign clearly independent of her running mate, and the presence of Diana Reyna might just drain enough votes from Delgado to tip the primary to Archila. I would like to see someone, even one of the candidates, conduct a poll of the primary before the primary on the 28th, though.

I have doubts about this. I never heard of her before a few days ago.

As a NYer, I will second this; there hasn't seemed to be a very notable campaign for liutentn governor. Delgado has appeared in a few ads with Hochul and he is pretty much clinging to her and treating them as the default ticket, which will likely work for him.

Delgados electability in a D priamry is pretty strong because while he's from "upstate" and represents a swing district, he still is pretty liberal or at least inoffensive to most progressives, and is African American. He isn't in any serious danger imo.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1457 on: June 25, 2022, 01:53:49 PM »

Random question: Who do you guys think Cuomo will vote for here?

I'm almost 100% convinced he votes for Suozzi. Definitely not Hochul in my view, because he kept underestimating her and wanted to dump her in 2018 already. Sources also say that before the resignation she was told to be off the 2022 ticket. Cuomo loves being center-stage and probably hates the fact that she has consolidated that much support in less than a year in office. And well, it's obvious he won't vote for Jumaane.

And if I had to guess, Cuomo will leave the Attorney General ballot empty and outright vote for the Republican in November. He'll never forgive Tish James.
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« Reply #1458 on: June 25, 2022, 09:45:32 PM »

Random question: Who do you guys think Cuomo will vote for here?

I'm almost 100% convinced he votes for Suozzi. Definitely not Hochul in my view, because he kept underestimating her and wanted to dump her in 2018 already. Sources also say that before the resignation she was told to be off the 2022 ticket. Cuomo loves being center-stage and probably hates the fact that she has consolidated that much support in less than a year in office. And well, it's obvious he won't vote for Jumaane.

And if I had to guess, Cuomo will leave the Attorney General ballot empty and outright vote for the Republican in November. He'll never forgive Tish James.

I think Cuomo holds his nose and votes for Hochul. I doubt he's going to vote for a candidate who isn't going to win the primary in Suozzi, though I think he would vote for Suozzi if he had a chance of beating Hochul. I do think he votes for Reyna for Lieutenant Governor, however.
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warandwar
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« Reply #1459 on: June 26, 2022, 06:03:05 PM »

I don't think you can emphasize enough how sleepy this race is. There aren't even that many tv ads. I don't think I've gotten a single mailer (unlike last year's council and mayoral races). I don't see how Archilla wins in that scenario. Interested in seeing where she runs ahead of Williams and vice versa.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1460 on: June 27, 2022, 01:19:37 PM »

Leaving this here ahead of the primary tomorrow

Quote
Hochul wasnít supposed to have it this easy

The state's first female governor holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising.

ALBANY, N.Y. ó New York Gov. Kathy Hochulís path to Tuesdayís Democratic primary was not expected to be so smooth.

Last fall, she faced the prospect of a major challenger in Attorney General Tish James and questions over whether becoming the unexpected governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned last August would translate into support among voters who hardly knew her.

Flash forward to now: The stateís first female governor appears set to cruise through her primary against Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, using the likely win as a springboard toward the general election in November.

She holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising. But she also hasnít had to put in the work required in a competitive primary, leaving her to make a cold start against the ultimate Republican nominee.

If she wins the primary and wins again in November, she would become one of the most powerful female governors in the nation, with a sweeping platform to counteract a potential Republican takeover of Congress on key Democratic issues that include gun control, abortion rights and climate change.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/hochul-new-york-governor-primary-00041447

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.
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warandwar
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« Reply #1461 on: June 27, 2022, 02:50:52 PM »

Leaving this here ahead of the primary tomorrow

Quote
Hochul wasnít supposed to have it this easy

The state's first female governor holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising.

ALBANY, N.Y. ó New York Gov. Kathy Hochulís path to Tuesdayís Democratic primary was not expected to be so smooth.

Last fall, she faced the prospect of a major challenger in Attorney General Tish James and questions over whether becoming the unexpected governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned last August would translate into support among voters who hardly knew her.

Flash forward to now: The stateís first female governor appears set to cruise through her primary against Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, using the likely win as a springboard toward the general election in November.

She holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising. But she also hasnít had to put in the work required in a competitive primary, leaving her to make a cold start against the ultimate Republican nominee.

If she wins the primary and wins again in November, she would become one of the most powerful female governors in the nation, with a sweeping platform to counteract a potential Republican takeover of Congress on key Democratic issues that include gun control, abortion rights and climate change.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/hochul-new-york-governor-primary-00041447

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.
Well the NY Dems are internally quite worried about the general election. They know Hochul needs to run a strong race to bring some state senators and house members up with her. She'll win but it'll be difficult to win big, which is what they want. Thats when cuomo's allies will strike.
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bunkerposter
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« Reply #1462 on: June 27, 2022, 03:13:14 PM »

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.

Agree with the conclusion but the reasoning is partly wrong; Pataki got elected Governor running as a fairly firm conservative.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1463 on: June 27, 2022, 03:49:19 PM »

Lee Zeldin (and especially Guiliani) do not strike me as serious candidates, so Hochul should have an easy time at least defining her opponents and how out of step they are with NY.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1464 on: June 27, 2022, 03:52:41 PM »

Leaving this here ahead of the primary tomorrow

Quote
Hochul wasnít supposed to have it this easy

The state's first female governor holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising.

ALBANY, N.Y. ó New York Gov. Kathy Hochulís path to Tuesdayís Democratic primary was not expected to be so smooth.

Last fall, she faced the prospect of a major challenger in Attorney General Tish James and questions over whether becoming the unexpected governor when Andrew Cuomo resigned last August would translate into support among voters who hardly knew her.

Flash forward to now: The stateís first female governor appears set to cruise through her primary against Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, using the likely win as a springboard toward the general election in November.

She holds a commanding lead in polls, endorsements and fundraising. But she also hasnít had to put in the work required in a competitive primary, leaving her to make a cold start against the ultimate Republican nominee.

If she wins the primary and wins again in November, she would become one of the most powerful female governors in the nation, with a sweeping platform to counteract a potential Republican takeover of Congress on key Democratic issues that include gun control, abortion rights and climate change.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/27/hochul-new-york-governor-primary-00041447

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.
Well the NY Dems are internally quite worried about the general election. They know Hochul needs to run a strong race to bring some state senators and house members up with her. She'll win but it'll be difficult to win big, which is what they want. Thats when cuomo's allies will strike.

Depends on what "win big" means. Obviously she won't win by 30, but I'm sure by double digits. I guess she'll end up between 56% and 60% of the vote and Zeldin between 36% and 41%.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1465 on: June 27, 2022, 04:03:21 PM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.
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« Reply #1466 on: June 27, 2022, 06:25:09 PM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1467 on: June 27, 2022, 07:28:59 PM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
Itís not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1468 on: June 28, 2022, 05:37:47 AM »

As usual, I was voter #1 at my precinct to vote at 6AM.  I am leaning toward Zeldin but part of me wanted to vote for Astorino out of Westchester County solitary against Suffolk  County.  It then turned out the voting app iPad the voting booth workers was wrong and meant for a different precinct and will need time to find the right iPad.  Since I had a meeting at 6:30AM back at home I decided to vote in the afternoon.

Oh, Westchester. .. why are you so incompetent when it comes to the voting process and count system.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1469 on: June 28, 2022, 08:07:15 AM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
Itís not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.
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« Reply #1470 on: June 28, 2022, 08:44:16 AM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
Itís not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.

Did a gov candidate ever end up with a running mate he didn't want other than Cuomo the older in 1982? If I remember correctly, his unwelcome lt. gov. later resigned for being frustrated over the job.

Anyways, any separate elections for lt. gov, primary or general like in CA, should be abolished. Just let the top candidate pick his 2nd in command in have them run as a join ticket. Like POTUS and VPOTUS.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1471 on: June 28, 2022, 09:04:34 AM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
Itís not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.

Did a gov candidate ever end up with a running mate he didn't want other than Cuomo the older in 1982? If I remember correctly, his unwelcome lt. gov. later resigned for being frustrated over the job.

Anyways, any separate elections for lt. gov, primary or general like in CA, should be abolished. Just let the top candidate pick his 2nd in command in have them run as a join ticket. Like POTUS and VPOTUS.

The current Governor is a woman. I think was the last time.

I agree with you it should be as a ticket in the primary.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #1472 on: June 28, 2022, 09:08:23 AM »

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.
Itís not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.

Did a gov candidate ever end up with a running mate he didn't want other than Cuomo the older in 1982? If I remember correctly, his unwelcome lt. gov. later resigned for being frustrated over the job.

Anyways, any separate elections for lt. gov, primary or general like in CA, should be abolished. Just let the top candidate pick his 2nd in command in have them run as a join ticket. Like POTUS and VPOTUS.

The current Governor is a woman. I think was the last time.

I agree with you it should be as a ticket in the primary.

I wrote "he" because all the predecessors and major candidates were men, so it was only possible for a man to end up with an unwanted running mate.

Ticket primary also sounds fine, though it would prohibit a winner from picking a former rival for the 2nd spot. That generally seems way less common at the state level though.
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Smash255
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« Reply #1473 on: June 28, 2022, 09:11:12 AM »

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.

Agree with the conclusion but the reasoning is partly wrong; Pataki got elected Governor running as a fairly firm conservative.

Pataki was pretty much a generic northeast R and was pro-choice.  Zeldin is a generic Trump R and is not.
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« Reply #1474 on: June 28, 2022, 09:15:37 AM »

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.

Agree with the conclusion but the reasoning is partly wrong; Pataki got elected Governor running as a fairly firm conservative.

Pataki was pretty much a generic northeast R and was pro-choice.  Zeldin is a generic Trump R and is not.

Yup, Mr. Zeldin doesn't strike me as strong candidate. The dude even voted against certification of the 2020 election. He behaves like running in TN and not NY.
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