NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Calthrina950]

I still don't understand why James ran in the first place. With her dropping out, that helps Hochul.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This state Leans Hochul this is the same state that elected Hillary Clinton

[Lambsbread]

Wow, that’s shocking. This race was always going to be safe Hochul but I really liked Tish. I guess I’m on board with Jumaane now!

[wbrocks67]

Wow, that’s shocking. This race was always going to be safe Hochul but I really liked Tish. I guess I’m on board with Jumaane now!

Why not Hochul?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Very embarrassing for James.

Will definitely go down as an awkward footnote in history.

I also wonder if this has to do with a major development coming in the Cuomo, Cuomon admin, or Trump investigations?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Hochul endorses AG James

https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1469030110124720129

[President Johnson]

Fantastic news!

I never really understood why James jumped in instead of running for reelection to a safe position and in which she has actually done good work. I wish her winning a second term as attorney general now.

Now let's go on to victory, Queen Kathy!

[Not Me, Us]

There has to have been some sort of backroom deal here. James' campaign is just as hopeless now as it was when she announced, there was no reason for her to back out unless she had some sort of epiphany about her chances, which I seriously doubt. Maybe Hochul agreed not to run in 2026?

[President Johnson]

There has to have been some sort of backroom deal here. James' campaign is just as hopeless now as it was when she announced, there was no reason for her to back out unless she had some sort of epiphany about her chances, which I seriously doubt. Maybe Hochul agreed not to run in 2026?

More likely her internals showed poor numbers as well, just as the public polls. Why take the risk and be completely out of business? Instead, she can now continue as attorney general. I'm sure the other candidates will drop out soon, or James wins anyway with backing for the Democratic establishment. Would actually be hilarious if Cuomo actually challenges James for attorney general since his name was mentioned for the job.

Also possible some donors convinced James to switch back to the attorney general's race after Hochul had strong fundraising numbers recently and racked up endorsements from several local officials and in the legislature.

Curios whether Suozzi will hang around till June. Hopefully not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume this puts to rest any attempt by Cuomo to get his old job back?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I assume this puts to rest any attempt by Cuomo to get his old job back?

Did anyone aside from a handful of Boomer dipsh!ts on Twitter ever think that was even a remote possibility?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I sure made a good call when I bought Hochul shares for 20 cents on PredictIt!

[brucejoel99]

According to Politico, James just wasn't engaged by the gubernatorial campaign in the same way that she's been engaged by all of her previous campaigns, was & remains focused on doing Trump stuff as A.G., & thus concluded that it never really made much sense to try & switch jobs in the first place. Honestly, it just sounds like she ran for Governor because it's what was near-universally expected of her - after all, not only "Almost Governor," but she literally brought Cuomo down - even though it may not have been what she really wanted to do. Which, y'know: good for her, unironically. To paraphrase Endgame (sorry, I'm on a bit of a Marvel kick right now in preparation for No Way Home), "everyone fails at who they're supposed to be, but the measure of a person, of a [public servant], is how well they succeed at being who they are."

[Calthrina950]

According to Politico, James just wasn't engaged by the gubernatorial campaign in the same way that she's been engaged by all of her previous campaigns, was & remains focused on doing Trump stuff as A.G., & thus concluded that it never really made much sense to try & switch jobs in the first place. Honestly, it just sounds like she ran for Governor because it's what was near-universally expected of her - after all, not only "Almost Governor," but she literally brought Cuomo down - even though it may not have been what she really wanted to do. Which, y'know: good for her, unironically. To paraphrase Endgame (sorry, I'm on a bit of a Marvel kick right now in preparation for No Way Home), "everyone fails at who they're supposed to be, but the measure of a person, of a [public servant], is how well they succeed at being who they are."

She possesses an ability to reflect and to learn from her mistakes, an ability which many politicians on both sides of the aisle lack. That was especially true of Andrew Cuomo, and of course, it's true of Trump also. I still do entertain hopes that James will be able to nail Trump on something.

[Frodo]

James OUT

https://twitter.com/tishjames/status/1468988883081830402?s=21

A wise decision.  I prefer her running for another term as state Attorney General.  

Fantastic news!

I never really understood why James jumped in instead of running for reelection to a safe position and in which she has actually done good work. I wish her winning a second term as attorney general now.

Now let's go on to victory, Queen Kathy!

Yes, I wondered about that.  I think she momentarily let her ambitions for higher office get the better of her.  She needs to see those investigations through before she can run for governor or another statewide office. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume this puts to rest any attempt by Cuomo to get his old job back?

Did anyone aside from a handful of Boomer dipsh!ts on Twitter ever think that was even a remote possibility?

tbh I was kind of worried that he could win with like 25-30% of the vote in a divided primary. There is a significant share of the Democratic base that still likes him even now, though it's obviously not a majority, and he still appears to have some friends in the NY Democratic Party.

[President Johnson]

I assume this puts to rest any attempt by Cuomo to get his old job back?

Did anyone aside from a handful of Boomer dipsh!ts on Twitter ever think that was even a remote possibility?

tbh I was kind of worried that he could win with like 25-30% of the vote in a divided primary. There is a significant share of the Democratic base that still likes him even now, though it's obviously not a majority, and he still appears to have some friends in the NY Democratic Party.

Plus he has 18 million in campaign contributions on the bank.

I just hope the creep goes away.

[Utah Neolib]

I’m very surprised James suddenly dropped out. I thought she’d try and hope for a decent poll, but nope. But, on to victory Hochul!

[Duke of York]

I’m very surprised James suddenly dropped out. I thought she’d try and hope for a decent poll, but nope. But, on to victory Hochul!

as am I. Hochul is the heavy favorite now. I have a feeling her and James made a deal.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow, shocking development.

I actually expected at least one dropout before the primary, but not from James who at least seemed in a good runner-up position. She most likely realized this bid was too much of a longshot and decided to go back to the relative safe AG job. Or she actually prepared a gubernatorial campaign before Cuomo finally resigned and assumed he'd either just serve out his term or Hochul would be a placeholder not even running for gov.

That said, I don't think there was any "backroom deal". Having a solid lead, there was no incentive for Hochul to make such a deal.

Hochul and James are the clear favorites for retaining their current positions as we speak. If I were in NY, I'd most likely vote for both now.

[GregTheGreat657]

This is my prediction for the county map if the race ends up being Hochul vs. Zeldin

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=dfas

[kwabbit]

This is my prediction for the county map if the race ends up being Hochul vs. Zeldin

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=dfas

Dutchess may vote GOP but I agree with everything else on this map. We'll see if we get some geographical polarization that's the reverse of 2018. Molinaro won every Hudson county except Albany and Ulster, even winning Columbia, while Cuomo won Staten Island both LI counties.

If it goes the other way, Hochul probably keeps all of the Biden Hudson counties.

[Utah Neolib]

Why is Suozzi even running? I don’t see much point to his campaign. Does anyone who isn’t a Republican think Hochul is too left?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is Suozzi even running? I don’t see much point to his campaign. Does anyone who isn’t a Republican think Hochul is too left?

Yeah, Souzzi would’ve been much better off running for re-election.  He’s “only” 59 and has a seat on Ways and Means.  He could easily have ended up chairing a Ways and Means subcommittee during the next Democratic House majority and probably wouldn’t lose in 2022 as long as he’s not asleep at the wheel.  I get that his dream job is clearly being Governor, but he’s never gonna win a statewide primary.  For better or worse, just isn’t in the cards and probably never was either. 

Being a Congressman is a better consolation prize than he had any right to expect, especially after he lost re-election as Nassau County Executive.  It was only dumb luck that his political career had a second wind and he’s throwing that away for a suicide run.  Even if Hochul somehow imploded, it still wouldn’t be him.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1469305660730970115?t=VaNiVrFYXNlCQ35Cn7O...

Masks for thee, not for me.