NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Frenchrepublican]

After November 2020, nobody can actually take Quinnipiac serious anymore.

Honestly they seem to have improved a bit as their numbers are generally reasonable and tend to be more in line with RCP polling average, it seems they have been replaced by MC as the new ''dem porn pollster''

[President Johnson]

After November 2020, nobody can actually take Quinnipiac serious anymore.

Honestly they seem to have improved a bit as their numbers are generally reasonable and tend to be more in line with RCP polling average, it seems they have been replaced by MC as the new ''dem porn pollster''

All the other pollsters also told us they fixed the errors after the 2016 election, in which some polls were somewhat off in certain places. Then came 2020. I'll wait for the 2022 midterms to determine whether Quinnipiac has actually improved. In the meantime, I take them with extreme caution.

Whether Cuomo is above water or not is hard to say at this point. I think most voters didn't take a closer look at his conduct and just want to wait for the investigation reports to come out. However, that doesn't change my opinion that Cuomo needs to resign or be impeached and removed from office.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also from that poll:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2021/03/18/q-poll-more-new-yorkers-want-cuomo-gone-but-not-immediately-1368939

Support remained fairly high among Democrats: 23 percent said he should resign while 67 percent said he should not.

36 percent of respondents said he should be impeached, while 54 percent were not supportive of that idea.

Many of those who believe Cuomo should leave office, however, seem to agree with his argument that it’s not yet time to have those discussions. Respondents were asked if they agreed more with “elected officials calling on Governor Cuomo to resign immediately” or with the officials who say “they will wait until the State Attorney General’s independent investigation is completed before they decide.” Twenty-two percent of respondents sided with those calling for his immediate departure, while 74 percent agreed with those who say a decision should wait for the AG's report. Among Democrats, the breakdown was 10-88.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A former Lobbyist, Nicolette Davis, has accused Rep. Tom Reed of sexual harassment. She says he rubbed her back, unhooked her bra, and touched her thigh while she was sitting next to him at a bar.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/tom-reed-lobbyist-nicolette-davis/2021/03/19/10717562-84f3-11eb-8a67-f314e5fcf88d_story.html

Nicolette Davis said she was 25, on her first networking trip as a junior lobbyist for an insurance company, when she felt the 45-year-old congressman’s hand on her back. She and other lobbyists had gathered at an Irish pub in Minneapolis after a day of ice fishing, Davis told The Washington Post, and Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y) was seated to her left.

“A drunk congressman is rubbing my back,” she texted a friend and co-worker at Aflac that evening in 2017, adding later, “HELP HELP.”

Reed, his hand outside her blouse, briefly fumbled with her bra before unhooking it by pinching the clasp, Davis told The Post. He moved his hand to her thigh, inching upward, she said.

Frozen in fear, she said, she asked the person sitting to her right for help. He obliged by pulling the congressman away from the table and out of the restaurant, Davis said.

Reed declined to be interviewed for this story. In response to a detailed list of questions, he said in a statement provided by his office: “This account of my actions is not accurate.”

Reed is widely known to be considering a challenge to Cuomo

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, if both get nominated, we have a contest of 2 harassers (or worse). If NY nominates them, they deserve it. Sorry.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Well, if both get nominated, we have a contest of 2 harassers (or worse). If NY nominates them, they deserve it. Sorry.

“I’m voting for Reed, he only harassed one woman!”

[brucejoel99]

A sleazy politician using his power to sexually exploit women? I'm shocked! Shocked, I tells ya!!

[President Johnson]

So how great would this be, if the next governor of New York was just that Queen from Buffalo, not only making history as the first female leader of the Empire State, but who's also a likeable and warm person instead of a scumbag and who's experienced at municipal, county, federal and state level? And whose pragmatism and relationships around the state would get things back on track and the government focused in serving the state rather than having one scandal after another? At the same time Cuomo and Reed get properly investigated for their behavior. This could get done soon if New York Democrats have enough courage. Come on!

[Suburbia]

Just a friendly reminder that Cuomo will never resign.

Yes, New York is a deep Blue state, and Cuomo could be reelected to a fourth term in 2022, or he could drag Schumer and downballot to a mediocre and unconvincing wins.....

If Cuomo is on the ballot in '22, does the NY Green Party gain in numbers as a leftwing protest vote?

[brucejoel99]

If Cuomo is on the ballot in '22, does the NY Green Party gain in numbers as a leftwing protest vote?

The WFP nominating somebody like Jumaane Williams would be a better avenue on that front.

[StateBoiler]

Just a friendly reminder that Cuomo will never resign.

Yes, New York is a deep Blue state, and Cuomo could be reelected to a fourth term in 2022, or he could drag Schumer and downballot to a mediocre and unconvincing wins.....

If Cuomo is on the ballot in '22, does the NY Green Party gain in numbers as a leftwing protest vote?

Cuomo's new law he instigated last year kicked every 3rd party off the ballot except the Conservative Party and Working Families Party.

[Sir Mohamed]

A (maybe not so) crazy thought: If Cuomo doesn't resign and get impeached, could there be an opening for HRC to primary the corrupt dude out? I know she said to be done with running 4 office, but she's actually someone who could beat Cuomo in a primary. Would also give her the chance for a political rehabilitation and actually enacting her policies into law. That may even be "easier" than POTUS since there wouldn't be hostile legislative branch under GOP control.

There seems to be a decent chance Cuomo is sitting the scandals out and running anyway. Tbh, I don't want to put the fate of taking him down on Bill DeBlasio or Jumaane Williams. These are too weak to take Mr. Cuomo down. Not even DiNapoli, James or Hochul, assuming they publically break with him. HRC has 100% name rec, a strong network of supporters and donors. She would win a primary against Cuomo.

[Not Me, Us]

A (maybe not so) crazy thought: If Cuomo doesn't resign and get impeached, could there be an opening for HRC to primary the corrupt dude out? I know she said to be done with running 4 office, but she's actually someone who could beat Cuomo in a primary. Would also give her the chance for a political rehabilitation and actually enacting her policies into law. That may even be "easier" than POTUS since there wouldn't be hostile legislative branch under GOP control.

There seems to be a decent chance Cuomo is sitting the scandals out and running anyway. Tbh, I don't want to put the fate of taking him down on Bill DeBlasio or Jumaane Williams. These are too weak to take Mr. Cuomo down. Not even DiNapoli, James or Hochul, assuming they publically break with him. HRC has 100% name rec, a strong network of supporters and donors. She would win a primary against Cuomo.

She would absolutely win the primary, but there's no way she runs. I do take issue with your view of other potential challengers though, I think Jumaane Williams and Tish James could both win a primary, with James being the stronger one. I also wouldn't rule out an independent run by someone like Williams on the WFP line, although that's much less likely to succeed.

[Suburbia]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

[Not Me, Us]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

[Calthrina950]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

At the statewide level, but not the presidential level. Gore won NY 60-35% over Bush that year, winning by a slightly wider margin than Biden did over Trump last year.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

bronz is stuck in the 1990s and early 2000s because every time NY politics are discussed, he brings up a GOPer as having some sort of chance in statewide races.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

At the statewide level, but not the presidential level. Gore won NY 60-35% over Bush that year, winning by a slightly wider margin than Biden did over Trump last year.

New York has a strong record of swinging big towards incumbent Democrats (1964, 1996, 2012), and Gore's performance in 2000 was in many ways the result of continued goodwill towards the Clinton administration. It's hard to imagine Suffolk County going D+12 for President again anytime soon.

This era also marked the beginning of massive Democratic Senate overperformances in the state, which Schumer, Clinton, and Gillibrand all have since continued.

[Roll Roons]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

At the statewide level, but not the presidential level. Gore won NY 60-35% over Bush that year, winning by a slightly wider margin than Biden did over Trump last year.

New York has a strong record of swinging big towards incumbent Democrats (1964, 1996, 2012), and Gore's performance in 2000 was in many ways the result of continued goodwill towards the Clinton administration. It's hard to imagine Suffolk County going D+12 for President again anytime soon.

This era also marked the beginning of massive Democratic Senate overperformances in the state, which Schumer, Clinton, and Gillibrand all have since continued.

Gore managed to win Staten Island by 7 points. I still don't understand how.

[Suburbia]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

bronz is stuck in the 1990s and early 2000s because every time NY politics are discussed, he brings up a GOPer as having some sort of chance in statewide races.

A Republican can win under the right environment....Upstate NY has a sizeable GOP core...plus the LI/Rockland/Orange suburbs

[TrumpBritt24]

2014 GOP nominee Rob Astorino (lost by a 14 point blowout) considering another run:

https://brooklyn.news12.com/former-westchester-county-executive-astorino-considers-2022-run-for-governor

[Calthrina950]

2014 GOP nominee Rob Astorino (lost by a 14 point blowout) considering another run:

https://brooklyn.news12.com/former-westchester-county-executive-astorino-considers-2022-run-for-governor

That's still closer than the typical margin we see in presidential or Senatorial races. 2014 began the pattern of Cuomo performing badly in Upstate New York (where he is unpopular), as Astorino managed to win Monroe and Ulster Counties against him. He probably could replicate that performance again next year if he were the nominee, although that would still be far from a victory.

[TML]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

bronz is stuck in the 1990s and early 2000s because every time NY politics are discussed, he brings up a GOPer as having some sort of chance in statewide races.

A Republican can win under the right environment....Upstate NY has a sizeable GOP core...plus the LI/Rockland/Orange suburbs

That "right environment" will likely involve a Republican presidential candidate winning 400+ EVs.

[Suburbia]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

bronz is stuck in the 1990s and early 2000s because every time NY politics are discussed, he brings up a GOPer as having some sort of chance in statewide races.

A Republican can win under the right environment....Upstate NY has a sizeable GOP core...plus the LI/Rockland/Orange suburbs

That "right environment" will likely involve a Republican presidential candidate winning 400+ EVs.

No, the right climate could be in 2022.....if crime spikes in NY, the NYPD unions whip up backlash, could get a Republican elected....the NYGOP depends on crime spikes to win and with the qualified immunity issue in NY, it could gain them support in the Long Island/Upstate area......

Right climate....2022 is still Likely/Safe D, but it takes the right Republican to win...Zeldin can't win...it has to be someone who is not Trumpian...

[beesley]

The by-product of large blue states is that you get people just hanging around, because they're an R in a large city or it's suburbs and exurbs they end up slightly prominent but without the advantage of a State Legislative or House Seat to run in. The same happens in red states minus the geographic factor. I realise that's pretty low-quality analysis but it's true.