NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[wbrocks67]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

[wbrocks67]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

Seems the same thing in CA though. Dem voters just didn't really turn out in safe blue states that didn't have any major statewide races that really seemed to be "in trouble"

[wbrocks67]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

Seems the same thing in CA though. Dem voters just didn't really turn out in safe blue states that didn't have any major statewide races that really seemed to be "in trouble"

Kind of, though Newsom, Padilla, Bonta and Kounalakis still won by nearly 20 pts. or more than that.

In WA, Dems did turn out and Patty Murray won reelection handily despite junk pollsters trying to create a different narrative.

I have a theory that Murray and Bennett actually performed really well because of the influx of cash into those races for GOTV, promotion, etc. Those races were "treated" like "competitive" races and I think that helped motivate Dems to turn out.

[wbrocks67]

Electorate in NY this year was only ~8% less D than 2020. Hochul and even Schumer cratered among Independents, it seems.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1610694831642218522

[wbrocks67]

Can someone please explain why Hochul is forcing this? I honestly don't get it.

[wbrocks67]

Is this battle somehow.... helping Hochul? LMAO

Siena has her approval at 56/36, which I think is the highest she's ever gotten in their poll

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SNY0123-Crosstabs-SCRI.pdf

[wbrocks67]

I feel like we're in a cycle of "Hochul does something, everyone freaks out and says she's the devil" with no context in between. Not saying that all of the stuff she's doing isn't legitimately bad, but it certainly would be confounding if she was doing all of these things on purpose, and I can't take a lot of Twitter seriously about it because some of those people freak out over everything.

Can someone actually break down this veto and what the bill actually does?