NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Sir Mohamed]

So, now that the filling deadline has passed, Hochul is stuck with Williams' or Suozzi's running mate? And a replacement appointment couldn't run on the lt. gov. primary ballot? Assuming Hochul wins the primary for gov, which is still very likely, there will be an all female ticket?

Suozzi's running mate may be a solid choice:

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1514215589761490950

[Sir Mohamed]

Lt. Governor Cuomo incoming!!!

LOL, he'd for sure pull a Frank Underwood then.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/luisferre/status/1521482823521214464

Hopefully this is a better pick and, as much as I support diversity, not just one that checks a few boxes.

Can he still get on the ballot? I thought the filing deadline has already passed?

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems really ill-advised to pull a Democrat out of the House right now.

Agreed. I already thought Biden pulled too many out when he became POTUS. He could have done so with >230 seats, but not at 222.

I first thought he was a state rep.

[Sir Mohamed]

Delgado doesn’t significantly change the race, but interesting to me that neither Democratic candidate will have any real NYC base. Kind of thought Hochul would go for balance.

She probably ran out of serious options that check all boxes (NYC, male, minority and not too old). Benjamin had a NYC base, which was probably the main reason he even got picked other than being AA.

She also could have gone with Andrea Stewart Cousins, though being senate leader is actually more powerful than lt. gov. Latter can be thankless job.

[Sir Mohamed]

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.

It’s not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.

Did a gov candidate ever end up with a running mate he didn't want other than Cuomo the older in 1982? If I remember correctly, his unwelcome lt. gov. later resigned for being frustrated over the job.

Anyways, any separate elections for lt. gov, primary or general like in CA, should be abolished. Just let the top candidate pick his 2nd in command in have them run as a join ticket. Like POTUS and VPOTUS.

[Sir Mohamed]

what do people think will happen in the Lieutenant Governor primary? I think Delgado wins but slightly underperforms  Hochul.

Either Archila or Delgado wins by a margin that's in recount territory.

It’s not going to be anywhere near that close. I had no idea who Archila was before a few days ago.

I also think it's underestimated the power of an endorsement by the gubernatorial candidate. Hochul has endorsed Delgado, and he's her running mate, so that's an automatic for most people.

Sort of similar is in PA. No one really knew statewide who Austin Davis was, but they knew Shapiro endorsed him and was his preferred running mate. He then went onto get 63% of the vote basically purely bc of that.

Did a gov candidate ever end up with a running mate he didn't want other than Cuomo the older in 1982? If I remember correctly, his unwelcome lt. gov. later resigned for being frustrated over the job.

Anyways, any separate elections for lt. gov, primary or general like in CA, should be abolished. Just let the top candidate pick his 2nd in command in have them run as a join ticket. Like POTUS and VPOTUS.

The current Governor is a woman. I think was the last time.

I agree with you it should be as a ticket in the primary.

I wrote "he" because all the predecessors and major candidates were men, so it was only possible for a man to end up with an unwanted running mate.

Ticket primary also sounds fine, though it would prohibit a winner from picking a former rival for the 2nd spot. That generally seems way less common at the state level though.

[Sir Mohamed]

Parts of the article are good, though the suggestion statewide races will be "difficult" for Democrats are nonsense. National environment may be not that great, but we're talking about New York here while Zeldin is anything but a Pataki. Hochul, and with her Schumer, James and DiNapoli, should easily win this.

Agree with the conclusion but the reasoning is partly wrong; Pataki got elected Governor running as a fairly firm conservative.

Pataki was pretty much a generic northeast R and was pro-choice.  Zeldin is a generic Trump R and is not.

Yup, Mr. Zeldin doesn't strike me as strong candidate. The dude even voted against certification of the 2020 election. He behaves like running in TN and not NY.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm sorry, what kind of nonsense headline is this? This is not a "Competitive" race in the fall???

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1541959335558914048

Yup, this is garbage. Even in 2014, the GOP candidate barely managed to get past 40% of the vote. Not much difference to be expected this time around. As I said, Zeldin doesn't even strike me as strong candidate for a state like NY. The dude voted to overturn the 2020 election and just promotes the usual right-wing talking points. Safe D/Hochul.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

Tbh, I'm not sure she's poised to make inroads in Upstate that much just because she's from there. Hochul from 2022 is different than 2011, she has moved left and supports strong gun laws. Isn't Upstate a very pro-gun region? That's also why Cuomo lost that much Upstate support from 2010 to 2014.

Schumer will for sure perform best in Upstate on the ticket, though I expect him to severely underperform his showings from 2016. He'd be lucky to do similar than Gillibrand in 2018.

[Sir Mohamed]

NYT is now showing <95% for both races. Was there really only 1.3M total turnout with the two parties combined?

Seems like, yup. Not good.

Mr. Trump needs to return to the WH to drive turnout up

[Sir Mohamed]

Better than him upstate, but worse in Long Island and Staten Island.

Italian-Americans that mainly voted for Cuomo due to his heritage but not for an Upstate woman with Irish roots? And Zeldin running on home turf in Long Island?

[Sir Mohamed]

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm not enthusiastic about Hochul but I'm still voting for her (and Democrats straight down the ballot).

Given that Democrats aren't enthused about Hochul and she is not particularly popular, why did she win the primary so easily? Was it because her opposition was worse?

More seems like NY polling - along with other safe states - is just broken this year. Hochul is neither a supertitan creating strong enthusiasm neither is she the opposite. She'll be fine on election day. And a strong improvement over her previous 3-Dem predecessors.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

We'll see, it's still NY after all, and even in R-waves like 2010 and 2014, Cuomo won pretty easily.

[Sir Mohamed]

Would James have done better if nominated? Maybe Hochul was just too uninspiring after all.

[Sir Mohamed]

Dems really need need to do an autopsy here how that could have happened. Schumer also underperformed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Perhaps Dems need to run an entire new slate in 2026 for all statwide offices? I'm more thinking of the Pat Ryans of the world, not the AOCs. Or at least some progressives that aren't Squad-like toxic outside inner NYC.

This should also be Schumer's last term.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just checked the AG race; James apparently won with 54% of the vote, barely overperforming the governor's race. This not just an indictment on Hochul, but on NY Dems as a whole. Not even in the R-waves of 2010 or 2014 did they perform so poorly. Cuomo in 2010 clobbered Paladino, who was like Zeldin a far-right-winger.

[Sir Mohamed]

Just a broader question: NY doesn't have term limits. How likely do you think it is Hochul runs at least once more in 2026? I think unless she's really unpopular, she does end up running again and then might pass the torch to Delgado in 2030.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

[Sir Mohamed]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

Obama got NUT margins in most of the Bronx; I think he held Romney to just like 3% of the vote or smtg in NY-13 and NY-15. One possibility this cycle was that minority turnout seemed extremely low across the board, so perhaps some of the R leaning whiter communities had a greater impact.

Sure, but NYC is also an area where Hochul and Dems severely underperformed Cuomo 2018. Even in 2014, Cuomo won by 14 pts statewide, running up the score in NYC.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hochul also ran a terrible campaign and barely campaigned. Her ads were all about two things until the final few weeks and her debate performance wasn't great either.

Had she responded to Zeldin's attacks about crime earlier and not taken the race for granted she might have won by more.

Does that really explain it all though? It's definitely a part of it, but Schumer being +13 is almost way worse than Hochul's +6

not all of it but its definitely a factor. Democrats also didn't show up to the polls.

The question really is why this is unique to NY? These results would suggest a red tsunami nationwide and not a neutral environment. James also won by single digits.

Seems the same thing in CA though. Dem voters just didn't really turn out in safe blue states that didn't have any major statewide races that really seemed to be "in trouble"

Kind of, though Newsom, Padilla, Bonta and Kounalakis still won by nearly 20 pts. or more than that.

In WA, Dems did turn out and Patty Murray won reelection handily despite junk pollsters trying to create a different narrative.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is this battle somehow.... helping Hochul? LMAO

Siena has her approval at 56/36, which I think is the highest she's ever gotten in their poll

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SNY0123-Crosstabs-SCRI.pdf

People often like politicians having a fighter mentality; they don't always care that much what specifically they're fighting for. Especially when it's something not having an immediate negative impact like a court nominee.