NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1550524453800792064

[wbrocks67]

Ah, so the fake outrage from Zeldin and co. was just that - very clearly fake. Unsurprising

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1552257045746913280

[wbrocks67]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

More seems like polling is flawed in safe states, just like Washington state, Oklahoma and - to a lesser extent - South Carolina. Zeldin doesn't strike me as strong opponent since he's way out of the New York mainstream, having voted to overturn the 2020 election and on right end of the political spectrum on all major issues. I'd be really surprised with a margin smaller than 15%.

Yeah, for all the handwringing about NY and 'crime' and all that stuff - at the same time, Zeldin is no moderate character. He opposes abortion rights and is a 2020 election denier.

I don't imagine Trump reminding people 3 weeks to go of his endorsement helps him either.

[wbrocks67]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

Doesn't New York rank like 27th in crime nationwide? Not just that, but Hochul isn't someone who I imagine "defund the police" works on.

[wbrocks67]

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm not enthusiastic about Hochul but I'm still voting for her (and Democrats straight down the ballot).

May I ask what's your explanation why some apparently not that thrilled about Hochul?

To me it seems that she has done a good job including a few legislative wins during her short period of time in the driver's seat. She's also the first woman as governor and ideologically pretty much in the mainstream of the party, neither a DINO nor far-left. Hochul generally strikes me as a likeable personal capable of connecting with average people. In my opinion, she deserves a strong mandate.

Not too many people care that she's a woman. She's very generic, and is associated in the minds of many with repressive covid restrictions.

How so? She really had nothing to do with them?

[wbrocks67]

WHAT
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1585050957703831552?s=20&t=Rtbh94lCO...

It's definitely easy to see, from her performance in this debate, why Hochul could very well be upset by Zeldin.

Did you actually watch it, or are you going off of one tweet that was likely very selectively taken out of context?

[wbrocks67]

WHAT
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1585050957703831552?s=20&t=Rtbh94lCO...

It's definitely easy to see, from her performance in this debate, why Hochul could very well be upset by Zeldin.

Did you actually watch it, or are you going off of one tweet that was likely very selectively taken out of context?

I'm not watching the entire debate. I'm following it on Twitter, and the consensus seems to be that Zeldin is doing well. Mind you, this includes some "#Election Twitter" people who are staunch Democrats.

Hm, because I'm seeing the opposite. Only on Atlas does election denying in a blue state = good debate.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1585054977860333568

[wbrocks67]

Huh, if you actually listen to the real quote, Hochul is talking about bail and is heard saying "I don't know why that's so important to you."

Maybe you should wait for the actual video instead of listening to hack Twitter accounts.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1585053854999404544

[wbrocks67]

WHAT
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1585050957703831552?s=20&t=Rtbh94lCO...

It's definitely easy to see, from her performance in this debate, why Hochul could very well be upset by Zeldin.

That quote is literally fabricated. You aren't even watching the debate this is so incredibly dishonest. You are not being honest, you are not being even handed, and its showing.

No, she didn't say that, but her actual comment wasn't that much better. But as I was saying in the Oz thread, people are going to crawl over broken glass to vote for this woman.

The actual comment was completely different! One has nothing to do with the other! Just admit your surface level knowledge on the debate (not even watching) led you to unknowingly share false information.

I'm not conceding on this one, especially since I wasn't the one who shared the tweet.

Errant nonsense.

Of course, you come into here and defend Hochul. As I said before, you think every Republican candidate is terrible and every Democratic candidate is excellent.

When someone posted the actual, real video, you accused them of being a hack for debunking what is fake news! You have been dishonest.

I'm done conversing on this. Done, absolutely done.

Not sure why you're being so adversarial. It's pretty cut and dry, someone shared a fake, absolutely fictitious quote, and I'm saying it was wrong to amplify it when you didn't even watch the debate. I've done that before, it's bad!

Let me quote verbatim what she actually said (~0:17 in this clip):

"I don't know why that is so important to you." That was in response to his criticisms of her policies on crime. She didn't say what was initially attributed to her, but her actual comment isn't any better. At any rate, more argument is not going to produce a consensus on this.

You're being dishonest again. It wasn't about her "policies on crime" - it was on a *SPECIFIC* issue in terms of cash bail. Why can't you just admit you made a false pretense from a misleading tweet? You're just doubling down at this point.

[wbrocks67]

WHAT
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1585050957703831552?s=20&t=Rtbh94lCO...

It's definitely easy to see, from her performance in this debate, why Hochul could very well be upset by Zeldin.

Did you actually watch it, or are you going off of one tweet that was likely very selectively taken out of context?

I'm not watching the entire debate. I'm following it on Twitter, and the consensus seems to be that Zeldin is doing well. Mind you, this includes some "#Election Twitter" people who are staunch Democrats.

Hm, because I'm seeing the opposite. Only on Atlas does election denying in a blue state = good debate.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1585054977860333568

January 6th is not the only issue under consideration next month. I'm sorry, but it is not. If Democrats were running their campaigns solely on that issue, and that issue alone, they would be in a worse position now than they currently are. What do you think the voters in NYC are more concerned about? Issues directly impacting them? Or January 6th?

You're completely missing the point here. He made a total gaffe by not disavowing the 2020 election denial. That IS a big deal in a blue state like New York, especially with literal election deniers all over the ballot all over the country. Whether you like to believe it or not, it IS an issue. I never said it was the biggest one. But you claim that Zeldin is such a great recruit, and yet he's making gaffes that are unnecessary like this one. Do you think that was a good comment for him to make?

[wbrocks67]

Notably I've seen an increase in both pro-Hochul and anti-Zeldin ads on youtube lately. Seems like she sort of fell asleep at the wheel and only now are Dems taking this race seriously. Most of the ads are pretty generic, and discuss abortion or try and tie Zeldin to Trump/extreme Rs. Given that NY as a whole is pretty blue, that's not necessarily a bad strategy.

I do think Hochul will lose most of the swing congressional seats so we'll see how that bodes for down ballot Ds. I could def see Zeldin winning 11 or even 12 of NY's 26 congressional districts, but the NYC districts still vote lopsided in Hochul's favor.

On the governor level these would be my guesses:

Safe Zeldin: NY-01, NY-02, NY-011, NY-21, NY-23, NY-24
Likely Zeldin: NY-03
Lean Zeldin: NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22
Tossup: NY-04
Lean Hochul: NY-20, NY-25
Likely Hochul: NY-06, NY-26
Safe Hochul: All the NYC districts.

I suspect basically all downballot House Ds will outperform Hochul to some degree but she doesn't help their case.

You think Hochul will lose Pat Ryan and Josh Riley's seat? Would certainly be ironic given Hochul gave a boost to Ryan in the closing days of NY-19 lol

[wbrocks67]

If you believe the punditry in CA in 2021, it's basically how that went. I'm not quite sure if that was really what was going on, but I think many believed at first that the race would be sleepy and that's why Newsom was cratering and then his poll #s only went up b/c the whole thing (and Elder) woke Dems up.

Basically how the polls magically went from like Newsom +7 to Newsom double digits pretty quickly. Though I imagine he was always going to win by a big margin.

But I do imagine the coverage of this race and the thought of Zeldin winning has probably woke quite a few Dems up

[wbrocks67]

The New York Post is literally worse than Fox News at this point in twisting stories, so I'm sure that's not really what she said.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if there’s already a mod for this race?
https://twitter.com/carbo_al/status/1587493312537264129?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6Dtyca...

Hochul is an awful messenger by and large. It's really the D next to her name keeping her afloat.

I think this isn't quite an OK or KS situation though, yes there are prbolems in NY but not of that caliber.

I'd expect a bit more from you.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if there’s already a mod for this race?
https://twitter.com/carbo_al/status/1587493312537264129?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6Dtyca...

Hochul is an awful messenger by and large. It's really the D next to her name keeping her afloat.

I think this isn't quite an OK or KS situation though, yes there are prbolems in NY but not of that caliber.

I'd expect a bit more from you.

Look I'm sorry but it's true. I can still align myself more with her than Zeldin but also believe her messaging and optics are terrible.

I meant you taking the NY Post at its word

[wbrocks67]

If Hochul does end up winning by 12-15%, then it will also mean that all of the "polls" showing her sinking were incredibly shoddy, since there a ton of polls of this race in September that showed her up by just that amount. Most of the polls that showed her doing bad were either partisan, or had incredibly odd composite party-reg make-ups that look nothing like New York.

[wbrocks67]

What is everyone's final prediction for the margin here.

I don't think it will be close to single digits. Hochul +14 or +15 seems a bare minimum. So she wins a full term 57.5-42.5%.

I'd be shocked if Hochul wins by double digits at this point. If she does, then that means NY-GOV was fool's gold for the Republicans.

We'll see, it's still NY after all, and even in R-waves like 2010 and 2014, Cuomo won pretty easily.

True, but Hochul is much less popular than Cuomo, New York has been engulfed by a renewed crime wave over the past few years, and Cuomo had much more appeal in the NYC metropolitan area than she does. Mind you, I still expect her to win tomorrow, but if it's by a double-digit margin, that would show New York is completely unwinnable for Republicans.

Isn't crime down this year?

[wbrocks67]

Well it also appears there was just complacency among Dems, too. "Crime" may have swung some swing voters or energized the GOP, but it also appears that Dems just didn't turn out. Not as extreme as FL, but still seems like more of a turnout problem than anything.

[wbrocks67]

Just checked the AG race; James apparently won with 54% of the vote, barely overperforming the governor's race. This not just an indictment on Hochul, but on NY Dems as a whole. Not even in the R-waves of 2010 or 2014 did they performs so poorly. Cuomo in 2010 clobbered Paladino, who was like Zeldin a far-right-winger.

Yeah, while Hochul did the worst, this wasn't all on her - Zeldin also had the most high profile candidacy of all the races.

If anything, Schumer's race is the worst because Pinion was a total joke candidate who had no money and still managed to get 43%. That is insane.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I think the correct take on NY is that it's incredibly nuanced. A lot of factors here:

-Cuomogate
-Hochul not taking the race as seriously until closer to the end
-Possible Hochul missteps along the way (stadium deal, etc.)
-Hochul not being a real incumbent, appointees can be tricky sometimes
-Zeldin getting a massive wave of national money

What Hochul, et al should've done was define Zeldin from the start. As others stated, he wasn't some moderate. He was a literal election denier, and yet that seems to have gotten lost in all this. They should've nailed him from the beginning so he had no route to dig out.

But again, it's not just Hochul. It's Schumer, James, Hochul, everyone. It's very clear that the biggest factor here was simply that this is a midterm, and NY is a safe blue state, and Democrats didn't feel the need to come out because they figured Hochul/all Dems would win and stuff like abortion rights, etc would not be in danger because it's New York. I think that's the easiest and clearest reason. You mix that with a few energized Republicans and there you have it.

Pretty safe to say though then in the end that Republicans have nearly no chance in New York in the modern era statewide, barring something crazy. This year was a perfect storm of what they needed and they still fell short by 6% in the gov race.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly Zeldin's NYC performance seems a lot less impressive when you realize he barely did better than Silwa in 2021

[wbrocks67]

Do we know the final statewide result?

There's been virtually nothing additional counted since Election Day on NYT, which seems... unlikely?

[wbrocks67]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

I think it was just bad Dem turnout, which then helped inflate the margins for Rs.

[wbrocks67]

Did we ever end up getting final results?

[wbrocks67]

It's interesting to compare Zeldin's numbers in NYC vs Romney who did extremely badly in NYC, Trump improved in both 2016 and 2020 and Zeldin did better than Trump.

Manhattan: +69D > +64D
Bronx: +83D > +55D
Brookyln: +65D > +43D
Queens: +59D > +26D

Pretty interesting that Zeldin did barely any better in Manhattan than Romney, speaks to how fast college whites in NYC are trending democratic, Zeldin could only marginally outperform Romney.

What in god's name happened to the Bronx? Seems like all the NY Dem underperformance largely comes from NYC (though Schumer had the biggest losses in Upstate, compared to the previous elections).

It's pretty clear from the results that many blacks and especially hispanics didn't bother to come out to vote this year in New York.

Do you think the Democratic message just failed to resonate in these comminities or did Democrats seem not to bother turning them out? In retrospect, I feel like the Democratic slate of candidate just took the state for granted. Sure, it was always Safe Democratic, but you should also try to win by as much as possible.

IMO it's just normal midterm dynamics. Nonwhite turnout is the first to fall in a midterm like this so it's not surprising to me that in a safe blue state that normal midterm dynamics prevailed