NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Suburbia]

Bellone and Curran, the Suffolk and Nassau Democratic executives are seen as potential candidates as well.....

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/06/new-york-governor-potential-democratic-candidates-473916

They may be too moderate for the Democratic primary, they are too tied to police unions.......

[Suburbia]

Bill De Blasio is considering primarying Cuomo.

Mayor Bill de Blasio has been talking to his inner circle and union allies about running for governor, and sources say he is growing increasingly confident he can win.

“I fell out of my chair laughing — he is honestly thinking about it,” said a former senior adviser. “Because of all this Cuomo s–t, he is feeling bold.”

Hizzoner played coy all week when asked if he was eyeing his embattled rival’s job. “The future will take care of itself,” he said, grinning, when a reporter posed the question on Thursday.

The public comments are not only intended to rile Gov. Cuomo — but behind closed doors, de Blasio is openly talking with advisers about running against him in a 2022 Democratic primary, multiple insiders said. De Blasio is term-limited and leaves office at the end of this year, while Cuomo can seek re-election to a fourth term in November 2022.

The discussions come as Cuomo faces two widening probes — a state Attorney General inquiry into sexual harassment allegations from at least three women, and a federal investigation into his administration’s alleged cover-up of COVID-related nursing home deaths.

With Cuomo’s blood in the water, the mayor’s team has reached out to the big labor unions to gauge support, including District Council 37, which represents public employees; the Local 1199 SEIU healthcare workers union; and the 32BJ Local SEIU, which reps building workers, sources said.



“He’s calling his labor friends,” said one operative. “He’s interested. I think that no matter what – even if the governor runs for a fourth term — de Blasio will primary him.”

de Blasio would be a disaster as well......

[Suburbia]

Cuomo originally ran for governor in 2002---the 9/11 attacks stunted his momentum---he dropped out a week before the Sept. 2002 primary because he did not want to have a racialist primary against then-state Controller Carl McCall, who is Black.

In 2001, NYC Democrats Mark Green and Fernando Ferrer feuded over race and Al Sharpton and it divided the NYDP so badly post-9/11 that Mike Bloomberg won---and Bloomberg was not supposed to win despite his billions.....

Cuomo has always been a power hungry man

But I hope this is not a setup.

Steve Bellone, Tom Suozzi, Laura Curran and Kathleen Rice are too moderate for the party anyway....James or Hochul may be the one....

Jeanine Pirro must be going off tonight---Cuomo beat Pirro in the 2006 AG race.

[Suburbia]

Cuomo originally ran for governor in 2002---the 9/11 attacks stunted his momentum---he dropped out a week before the Sept. 2002 primary because he did not want to have a racialist primary against then-state Controller Carl McCall, who is Black.

Jeanine Pirro must be going off tonight---Cuomo beat Pirro in the 2006 AG race.

Holy s*** how did I not know this lmao

Yes.

If not for 9/11, it would have been the biggest political story of the 2000s---the NYDP racebaiting itself because Sharpton's crazy demands at the time.

NY is deep blue, but it elected Republicans like Giuliani, D'Amato, Pataki in the 1990s.

Cuomo was Clinton's HUD Secy in the late 90s and was eyeing a Gore veep position or going after Pataki for beating Daddy Mario in 1994..... like Dubya going after Clinton-Gore for beating Daddy Bush in '92.....

Having just witnessed a bitter, racially divisive primary for mayor, the man who is poised to be the new leader of the state Democratic Party said yesterday that his mandate would be to avoid a bitter, racially divisive primary for governor next year.

The probable leader, Assemblyman Herman D. Farrell Jr., issued a blunt warning about the stakes in next year's contest between state Comptroller H. Carl McCall, who is black, and Andrew M. Cuomo, the former federal housing secretary, who is white.

''The punishment for doing wrong things, for doing stupid things, is the electorate beats you,'' Mr. Farrell said in an interview by telephone from Jamaica, where he is on vacation. ''You lose. Both the McCall and the Cuomo factions want to be able to win. We've just seen a model of how to lose, and I hope we can learn from that experience.''

Supporters of Fernando Ferrer -- notably the Rev. Al Sharpton and Roberto Ramirez, the Bronx Democratic leader -- are asking for a public airing of what they call racially charged campaign tactics on behalf of Mark Green, who won the mayoral primary. They accused Mr. Green and party leaders of failing to take their concerns seriously, and withheld support from Mr. Green, helping to doom him to defeat in the general election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/14/nyregion/a-democrat-s-mandate-no-more-racial-division.html

Andrew M. Cuomo abruptly pulled out of the race for the Democratic nomination for governor yesterday, just one week before the Sept. 10 primary, avoiding what polls indicated would have been a searing defeat at the hands of his opponent, H. Carl McCall.

The withdrawal came at the urging of Mr. Cuomo's closest supporters and was blessed by former President Bill Clinton, whose wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, played a subtle but influential role in the demise of the Cuomo campaign.

Mr. Clinton and Representative Charles B. Rangel, a McCall supporter who had repeatedly called for Mr. Cuomo to pull out, flanked Mr. Cuomo at the news conference where he made his announcement.

It was a spectacular humiliation for a man who had entered the race in defiance of party leaders, and had proceeded to act the role of rebellious outsider. In the end, his decision to leave the race was a first step toward making peace with those same party leaders.

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/04/nyregion/2002-campaign-announcement-cuomo-quits-race-backs-mccall-for-governorship.html

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/cuomo-memoir-details-devastating-divorce-failed-2002-run-article-1.1972032

[Suburbia]

Cuomo is not going anywhere

[Suburbia]

Cuomo is not going to resign, but this is probably his last term. Hochul, James, or Bellone are the favorites to win in 2022.

Tom Suozzi and Steve Bellone are suburban Italian Americans like Cuomo, straight white male Democrats who appeal to female voters but could have baggage like Cuomo....

[Suburbia]

A lot of people think this is a setup, I am just saying.

Six women?

[Suburbia]

A lot of people think this is a setup, I am just saying.

Six women?

"A lot of people think"... who exactly thinks that? What's their evidence? That's also a phrase Trump used for his talking points, trying to give them more credibility.

I know it's a bronz post, but parts of the "blue MAGA crowd" in the Politico and NYT comment sections legitimately believe that:

Told you.....

[Suburbia]

Biden appeasing to the Al Franken caucus is a horrible, horrible gaffe.

Explain....

[Suburbia]

Cuomo is still not going to resign. Hochul is silent. So is DiNapoli.

[Suburbia]

Cuomo isn't going anywhere......

DiNapoli and Suozzi would be better though, both are Italian American Catholic moderates who would win Suffolk and Nassau

[Suburbia]

Just a friendly reminder that Cuomo will never resign.

Yes, New York is a deep Blue state, and Cuomo could be reelected to a fourth term in 2022, or he could drag Schumer and downballot to a mediocre and unconvincing wins.....

If Cuomo is on the ballot in '22, does the NY Green Party gain in numbers as a leftwing protest vote?

[Suburbia]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

[Suburbia]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

bronz is stuck in the 1990s and early 2000s because every time NY politics are discussed, he brings up a GOPer as having some sort of chance in statewide races.

A Republican can win under the right environment....Upstate NY has a sizeable GOP core...plus the LI/Rockland/Orange suburbs

[Suburbia]

Hillary would be a good governor, but the RGA would spend millions in NY

Malliotakis or Lazio or someone would run against her

But if a retread like Rick Lazio reemerges, it would lead to a Zeldin or a Palumbo or some other rightwinger to run....

Then the RGA might as well light their money on fire, because there is no way Clinton would lose. Plus Cinton already beat Lazio in 2000, when NY was much less blue.

bronz is stuck in the 1990s and early 2000s because every time NY politics are discussed, he brings up a GOPer as having some sort of chance in statewide races.

A Republican can win under the right environment....Upstate NY has a sizeable GOP core...plus the LI/Rockland/Orange suburbs

That "right environment" will likely involve a Republican presidential candidate winning 400+ EVs.

No, the right climate could be in 2022.....if crime spikes in NY, the NYPD unions whip up backlash, could get a Republican elected....the NYGOP depends on crime spikes to win and with the qualified immunity issue in NY, it could gain them support in the Long Island/Upstate area......

Right climate....2022 is still Likely/Safe D, but it takes the right Republican to win...Zeldin can't win...it has to be someone who is not Trumpian...

[Suburbia]

2010: Paladino
2014: Astorino
2018: Molinaro
2022: Linguini
2026: Bucatini
2030: Rigatoni
2034: Fettuccini
2038: Tortellini
2042: Cavatelli
2046: Vermicelli 

NYGOP gubernatorial candidates have been Italian-American since 2010, same thing with the NJGOP (Christie, Guadagno, Ciattarelli)

Italian-Americans in the Northeast lean GOP because of law and order and low education/high attainment of wealth.......they can be a swingy group in some elections, however

[Suburbia]

Giuliani vs. Cuomo would be a low turnout election

[Suburbia]

Cuomo may have become Trump in the sense that nothing matters anymore. He's had so many scandals that people are desensitized to them. I wouldn't rule out him winning a fourth term.

This...but he should go in 2026, and give it up

[Suburbia]

If NY is losing a congressional seat, who's losing out: Zeldin, Garbarino, Malliotakis, Stefanik?

Probably Zeldin or Malliotakis....

They would lose statewide races but make it competitive basically

[Suburbia]

https://buffalonews.com/opinion/columnists/analysis-new-york-republicans-scouting-a-giant-killer/article_ed99b196-9e0e-11eb-a590-b360c971ea35.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

Rep. Zeldin, Rep. Stefanik, Marc Molinaro, Rob Astorino, and Andrew Giuliani have been invited to a Republican Party conference this week regarding the election. Prominent NYGOP/NY Conservative Party figures like Zeldin; but want him pushed further to the right.

They are complete idiots.

They will make it competitive, but they will lose to whoever the Democrat is. Cuomo would win reelection unless a really damaging thing emerged......

Chris Jacobs is the only one who can make it really competitive

[Suburbia]

As long as Cuomo isn't running every single Republican with any ambitions for Governor is wasting their time and effort by running. But hey, I can't really complain if Katko or Zeldin want to abandon their seats. I'd be fine with either. Zeldin and his stupid face is such a piece of s***, I would be grateful if he was no longer in the House. And I would love for a Democrat to actually have a chance in Katko's district if he runs for Governor instead.

Cuomo probably would be reelected even if the AG's report is damaging........I don't know how a NYGOP can win, maybe in 2026, 2030.....

[Suburbia]

I don't even think Pataki could win in this 2022 NY climate...2002 was 20 years ago, both Pataki and the national GOP was riding off the post-9/11 boom that added more voters for the GOP......

https://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/05/politics/gop-posted-gains-among-voters-after-911-survey-shows.html?searchResultPosition=1

[Suburbia]

I don't even think Pataki could win in this 2022 NY climate...2002 was 20 years ago, both Pataki and the national GOP was riding off the post-9/11 boom that added more voters for the GOP......

https://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/05/politics/gop-posted-gains-among-voters-after-911-survey-shows.html?searchResultPosition=1

Like I said before, if Republicans are winning statewide races in NY, they are winning 400+ EVs nationwide.

Statewide is off-year. A Republican could win NY, but under the right climate. NY has to have a major crime surge like the 1980s and 1990s for a Republican to win statewide like Pataki and Vacco did in 1994......

Cuomo will not carry Nassau, Suffolk or Richmond counties if he is the Dem nominee in 2022.....the last Republican to win Nassau statewide was Dan Donovan in 2010, the then-district attorney for Staten Island when he ran for Attorney General against Eric Schneiderman.....a Republican winning NY takes a lot of hard work and effort and appealing to crossover Democrats while staying away from Trumpism.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_New_York_Attorney_General_election

Cuomo is unpopular in Nassau/Suffolk/Richmond.....he can win without them.....Cuomo can carry only NYC and still be reelected......

[Suburbia]

Safe D, even with Cuomo. Without him, Titanium D.

This, but Steve Bellone, Laura Curran and Kathleen Rice could make it Likely D.....the Democratic base would not be happy with Long Island suburban Democrats who may be too police-friendly or too moderate on taxes....

If Cuomo wins reelection in 2022, what if he wants to run in 2026, 2030 and even 2034? Cuomo is that power hungry to do so

[Suburbia]

The NY GOP choking away winnable races like usual.

I don't think this is winnable, even against Cuomo. If Cuomo isn't the Dem candidate, it's Titanium D anyways.

They could win against a blank slate like Bellone or Curran or Hochul but it would take a non-Trumpian candidate to win