NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Not Me, Us]

Cuomo journalist now expecting resignation.

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366813698640252935?s=19

The sooner, the better.

[President Johnson]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

[Duke of York]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

I think its a near certainty James runs for Governor in the future. I don't think she has any desire to go to Washington.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Working Families Party wants Cuomo out.

https://twitter.com/NYWFP/status/1366841963375431680?s=19

I had my doubts when the DSA and other lefties started talking, but the WFP is essentially a caucus of the NY Democratic Party.

It's all just a matter of time.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

Why wouldn't James run for Governor?  I mean, if anything, it's more likely Hochul doesn't run and either way, it'd be James' race to lose.

In any case, it's not Hochul herself that's the problem.  Most NYC Democrats will feel no loyalty to her and likely regard her as some random nobody from upstate who got lucky.  If not James, then Hochul will lose just as badly to whichever non-De Blasio NYC politician decides to run instead.  

This is one of those races where even if Hochul does everything right and her non-De Blasio NYC opponent does everything wrong (short of having a career-ending scandal), there's still probably not a realistic path to victory for Hochul.

[President Johnson]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

Why wouldn't James run for Governor?  I mean, if anything, it's more likely Hochul doesn't run and either way, it'd be James' race to lose.

In any case, it's not Hochul herself that's the problem.  Most NYC Democrats will feel no loyalty to her and likely regard her as some random nobody from upstate who got lucky.  If not James, then Hochul will lose just as badly to whichever non-De Blasio NYC politician decides to run instead.  

This is one of those races where even if Hochul does everything right and her non-De Blasio NYC opponent does everything wrong (short of having a career-ending scandal), there's still probably not a realistic path to victory for Hochul.

Well, but she defeated Williams back in 2018, who was from New York City. Furthermore, I doubt voters in New York City and Long Island actually care about the fact Hochul is from Buffalo (heck, that's actually an argument for Democrats to improve in Upstate again). In the end, it's Democratic primary voters who decide the nomination and not a bunch of NYC politicans in smokefilled rooms. Of course it depends on her governing style, but I don't see why Democrats would not nominate the first female governor if she does a good job. Furthermore, I don't see why Democrats in the State Legislature wouldn't back her if she gets things done. She'll seek alliances there; she's been in public service for a while and on different levels - local, state and federal - she knows the game well. It also should be noted that Hochul has relationships with Kirsten Gillibrand, Schumer and Hillary, whom would most likely support her bid as they did in previous elections. Especially Gillibrand and Hillary, who remain popular among New York Democrats.

As others said as well, James very likely won't oppose an incumbent of the same lane within the party, especially if there isn't much she would do differently. If Hochul draws a primary challenge, it will be someone from the progressive wing.

Of course, I may be wrong here, or everything turns out differently, who knows. First off, Cuomo actually has to resign, which he hopefully does as soon as possible. Then we may have a clearer picture after the first few months.

[Lambsbread]

Lee Zeldin is exploring a run for Governor:

https://twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1366839168928780298?s=20

[NYSforKennedy2024]

New York State Young Democrats calls for Cuomo's resignation.

https://twitter.com/NYSYD/status/1366810445672304646?s=19

[Not Me, Us]

New York State Young Democrats calls for Cuomo's resignation.

https://twitter.com/NYSYD/status/1366810445672304646?s=19

This strikes me as pretty significant. Is there actually a chance of Cuomo resigning?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

New York State Young Democrats calls for Cuomo's resignation.

https://twitter.com/NYSYD/status/1366810445672304646?s=19

This strikes me as pretty significant. Is there actually a chance of Cuomo resigning?

NYSYD is a direct subsidiary of the State party, so I'm going to say yes. Chances are going up by the hour at this point.

That, or this State party will break into a civil war over the issue of renominating a sexual predator.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Cuomo has been stripped of his COVID emergency authorization powers.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/541295-ny-lawmakers-agree-to-deal-to-strip-cuomo-of-pandemic-related-emergency?amp&__twitter_impression=true

[PSOL]

Considering how hard Cuomo has cracked down on the possibility of third parties, all he needs to do is win the primary and he’s got the vote. I’m not sure turnout on an off election year will be high enough to encourage people to drop him if he decides to stay.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not even a year ago, his press conferences were given live nationwide coverage and he was being proclaimed a hero simply for being Governor of New York during a pandemic (Gotta love East Coast Bias).

I'm glad the day has come where the cards have come crashing down on Cuomo.

[RI]

Emerson now has Cuomo underwater:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure/No opinion 14%

Men: 33/56
Women: 43/40

Should Cuomo be reelected in 2022?
Yes 36%
No 64%

Should Cuomo resign over Nursing Home handling?
Yes 45%
No 36%
Unsure 18%

700 RV, 3/1-3/2

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-york-state-poll-governor-cuomo-struggling-amid-controversies

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Emerson now has Cuomo underwater:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure/No opinion 14%

Men: 33/56
Women: 43/40

Should Cuomo be reelected in 2022?
Yes 36%
No 64%

Should Cuomo resign over Nursing Home handling?
Yes 45%
No 36%
Unsure 18%

700 RV, 3/1-3/2

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-york-state-poll-governor-cuomo-struggling-amid-controversies

Interesting that women approve of Coumo more than men do. You'd expect the opposite if anything.

[Suburbia]

Emerson now has Cuomo underwater:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure/No opinion 14%

Men: 33/56
Women: 43/40

Should Cuomo be reelected in 2022?
Yes 36%
No 64%

Should Cuomo resign over Nursing Home handling?
Yes 45%
No 36%
Unsure 18%

700 RV, 3/1-3/2

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-york-state-poll-governor-cuomo-struggling-amid-controversies

Interesting that women approve of Coumo more than men do. You'd expect the opposite if anything.

A lot of women like his lockdown rules, a lot of men do not.....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Emerson now has Cuomo underwater:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure/No opinion 14%

Men: 33/56
Women: 43/40

Should Cuomo be reelected in 2022?
Yes 36%
No 64%

Should Cuomo resign over Nursing Home handling?
Yes 45%
No 36%
Unsure 18%

700 RV, 3/1-3/2

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-york-state-poll-governor-cuomo-struggling-amid-controversies

Interesting that women approve of Coumo more than men do. You'd expect the opposite if anything.

A lot of women like his lockdown rules, a lot of men do not.....

I wonder if there is a big gender gap on the "should Coumo resign" question.

[NYDem]

Emerson now has Cuomo underwater:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure/No opinion 14%

Men: 33/56
Women: 43/40

Should Cuomo be reelected in 2022?
Yes 36%
No 64%

Should Cuomo resign over Nursing Home handling?
Yes 45%
No 36%
Unsure 18%

700 RV, 3/1-3/2

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-york-state-poll-governor-cuomo-struggling-amid-controversies

Interesting that women approve of Coumo more than men do. You'd expect the opposite if anything.

I think some of that is just partisan gender bias.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366931605479186435

Kind of agree with this take - until the Speaker of the NY House is cajoled into opposing Cuomo, he's going nowhere. It will probably take the credible threat of impeachment to force a resignation.

Only 5 (out of 105) Democratic State Reps have come out for Cuomo's resignation so far. It's going to take a lot more than to convince Speaker Heastie to bury Cuomo.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Cuomo is set to make an announcement at 1PM after a presumable COVID briefing.

[Lambsbread]

I'm putting the odds at like:

60% defiantly refusing to resign, maybe acknowledging some allegations but playing them down, not taking questions re: running for re-election
30% not running for re-election
5% resigning
5% going literally nuclear

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Cuomo flat out says he’s not resigning

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course he isn't, Bill DeBasio says he has confidence in Cuomo, this doesn't mean that he won't face a primary next yr, if NYorkers want him out, start impeachment or run a primary candidate

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366931605479186435

Kind of agree with this take - until the Speaker of the NY House is cajoled into opposing Cuomo, he's going nowhere. It will probably take the credible threat of impeachment to force a resignation.

Only 5 (out of 105) Democratic State Reps have come out for Cuomo's resignation so far. It's going to take a lot more than to convince Speaker Heastie to bury Cuomo.

Could the state house dems revolt and impeach with the gop?

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone think this is a potential setup?

What, like everyone conspiring to force out of power the governor who made his name in white-collar financial crimes on the eve of the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis, and having him replaced with someone literally blind?