NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Letitia James would be the one of  black woman to win any statewide election in American history and the first in New York History. That would be amazing but historically New York doesn’t make that kinda history, being one of the few states to have never had elected a female governor, or a minority governor. This leads me to think maybe a dark horse like Biaggi could win/take the plunge against him. However the state party is changing so it could surprise me.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Letitia James would be the one of  black woman to win any statewide election in American history and the first in New York History. That would be amazing but historically New York doesn’t make that kinda history, being one of the few states to have never had elected a female governor, or a minority governor. This leads me to think maybe a dark horse like Biaggi could win/take the plunge against him. However the state party is changing so it could surprise me.

Biaggi would be a much bigger change for the state, as by far the most far-left Governor the state has ever had.

James is pretty well-regarded by the state, so I assume she'll just be the state-backed candidate and have a fairly easy win if Cuomo is still in office but doesn't run again. But if Hochul is put into office by a Cuomo resignation, she'd probably be the favorite.

[Duke of York]

Letitia James would be the one of  black woman to win any statewide election in American history and the first in New York History. That would be amazing but historically New York doesn’t make that kinda history, being one of the few states to have never had elected a female governor, or a minority governor. This leads me to think maybe a dark horse like Biaggi could win/take the plunge against him. However the state party is changing so it could surprise me.

Biaggi would be a much bigger change for the state, as by far the most far-left Governor the state has ever had.

James is pretty well-regarded by the state, so I assume she'll just be the state-backed candidate and have a fairly easy win if Cuomo is still in office but doesn't run again. But if Hochul is put into office by a Cuomo resignation, she'd probably be the favorite.

If Hochul runs for a full  James likely won't primary her.

[NYDem]

Letitia James would be the one of  black woman to win any statewide election in American history and the first in New York History. That would be amazing but historically New York doesn’t make that kinda history, being one of the few states to have never had elected a female governor, or a minority governor. This leads me to think maybe a dark horse like Biaggi could win/take the plunge against him. However the state party is changing so it could surprise me.

Biaggi would be a much bigger change for the state, as by far the most far-left Governor the state has ever had.

James is pretty well-regarded by the state, so I assume she'll just be the state-backed candidate and have a fairly easy win if Cuomo is still in office but doesn't run again. But if Hochul is put into office by a Cuomo resignation, she'd probably be the favorite.

If Hochul runs for a full  James likely won't primary her.

I am a bit biased towards Hochul for no other reason than her geographical location. She'd be the first unambiguously Upstate Governor in ~90 years.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Cuomo has been accused, and photographed, of an unwanted sexual/flirtacious advance, for a THIRD time in one week.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1366550861342777346

Rep. Kathleen Rice has called for Cuomo's resignation.

https://twitter.com/RepKathleenRice/status/1366558621232939015

[Suburbia]

Does anyone think this is a potential setup?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Does anyone think this is a potential setup?

In this cancel culture phase of the #MeToo era, there's always potential that all of these allegations and the release of the photo were orchestrated - but that doesn't change the fact that they are allegations worthy of investigation, and tonight's photo being a cringeworthy, damning piece of evidence against Cuomo.

Setup or not - it's time for him to go.

[NYDem]

Does anyone think this is a potential setup?

It's possible but unlikely.

Then again, the nursing home coverup should have been enough to push him out on its own. Even if some over-exaggerated photo is the thing that actually gets him out I really don't care. Al Capone was convicted of tax evasion.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'll go as far as to say that if Cuomo is the Democratic nominee in 2022, this race is Safe R.

[Pink Panther]

Jesus Christ. This is the quickest hero to villain turn I have ever seen.

[brucejoel99]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

[PSOL]

Jesus Christ. This is the quickest hero to villain turn I have ever seen.

Cuomo has never been a hero. He’s always been a sleazebag who seems to like the Independent Democratic Caucus than actual Democrats. Him being this way is unsurprising to those who payed attention.

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

[brucejoel99]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

[Hope For A New Era]

He's an easy target in terms of political attacks against Democrats, so it'll be good to see him go.

(I don't mean electorally, I mean "associationally" or something, like how Rs put random photos of AOC in every ad now)

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I remember last year there were some weird muttering about how Cuomo could serve as a compromise nominee if the primary went to convention cause of how well he handled the virus. How quickly things change.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

Hochul would run, and I say a crowd of probably 5-10 candidates as well.

Alessandra Biaggi, Tish James, Jamaal Bowman, Ritchie Torres, Byron Brown, Tim Kennedy, Sean Patrick Maloney, Max Rose, AOC, Chuck Schumer, Hillary, Lindsey Boylan, all have a reason why running for Governor makes sense; on top of NY being a pretty attractive state right now for a post-COVID recovery and the inevitable legalization of sports gambling and marijuana.

My leading bet right now:

No Cuomo resignation, but by May he announces he will not be running in 2022.

Byron Brown wins the primary, given the challenge he's facing right now from DSA and Working Families-endorsed India Walton (who will go on to become Mayor of Buffalo), and Brown goes on to face Janice Dean in the general. Kathy Hochul remains Lieutenant Governor, and Tish James remains NY AG but will face a challenge from a progressive.

Brown, Hochul, and James all go on to win and develop post-COVID NY similarly to how Brown did Buffalo post-recession; with the help of [insert new NYC Mayor].

[KaiserDave]

I remember last year there were some weird muttering about how Cuomo could serve as a compromise nominee if the primary went to convention cause of how well he handled the virus. How quickly things change.

That was a really stupid idea then too, and he was just as horrible. Now it's just more obvious. But you're right public opinion has finally changed.

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

Hochul would run, and I say a crowd of probably 5-10 candidates as well.

Alessandra Biaggi, Tish James, Jamaal Bowman, Ritchie Torres, Byron Brown, Tim Kennedy, Sean Patrick Maloney, Max Rose, AOC, Chuck Schumer, Hillary, Lindsey Boylan, all have a reason why running for Governor makes sense; on top of NY being a pretty attractive state right now for a post-COVID recovery and the inevitable legalization of sports gambling and marijuana.

My leading bet right now:

No Cuomo resignation, but by May he announces he will not be running in 2022.

Byron Brown wins the primary, given the challenge he's facing right now from DSA and Working Families-endorsed India Walton (who will go on to become Mayor of Buffalo), and Brown goes on to face Janice Dean in the general. Kathy Hochul remains Lieutenant Governor, and Tish James remains NY AG but will face a challenge from a progressive.

Brown, Hochul, and James all go on to win and develop post-COVID NY similarly to how Brown did Buffalo post-recession; likely with help of NYC Mayor Andrew Yang.

I don't think it would be that many people. Why Brown? I don't think hes going to lose reelection.

Hochul can't run for governor and then be chosen as Lt. Governor. The primaries are separate.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

Hochul would run, and I say a crowd of probably 5-10 candidates as well.

Alessandra Biaggi, Tish James, Jamaal Bowman, Ritchie Torres, Byron Brown, Tim Kennedy, Sean Patrick Maloney, Max Rose, AOC, Chuck Schumer, Hillary, Lindsey Boylan, all have a reason why running for Governor makes sense; on top of NY being a pretty attractive state right now for a post-COVID recovery and the inevitable legalization of sports gambling and marijuana.

My leading bet right now:

No Cuomo resignation, but by May he announces he will not be running in 2022.

Byron Brown wins the primary, given the challenge he's facing right now from DSA and Working Families-endorsed India Walton (who will go on to become Mayor of Buffalo), and Brown goes on to face Janice Dean in the general. Kathy Hochul remains Lieutenant Governor, and Tish James remains NY AG but will face a challenge from a progressive.

Brown, Hochul, and James all go on to win and develop post-COVID NY similarly to how Brown did Buffalo post-recession; likely with help of NYC Mayor Andrew Yang.

I don't think it would be that many people. Why Brown?

Hochul can't run for governor and then be chosen as Lt. Governor. The primaries are separate.

I don't think it'll be that many people that I listed as well, but just pick about 5 of them for starters.

Most Buffalo mayoral races are pretty dead and boring. India Walton, on top of being endorsed by WFP and the DSA, is gaining a good amount of social media traction from my on-the-ground following of the race. By far the strongest opponent Brown has had to face yet in his years of campaigning.

If Cuomo steps aside, Brown has massive networking resources with Dems all across the state, all the way to the DNC even.

From Brown's perspective, you avoid the June primary loss and run for the higher office. He's only been Mayor of Buffalo for 15 years, and unlike Tish James (who I see as having a reverse-Kathy Hochul problem; her perceived role in the nursing home scandal/COVID shutdowns is not very positive here in WNY), I think he'll be the best balance between WNY/Upstate/NYC voters.

As for Hochul, I see her running or flirting with the idea, but likely dropping out before the primary as well. I don't see her doing well outside of Western/Upstate NY.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hochul would be toast in the primary if she sought a full term as Governor, the NY Democratic Party is not gonna let a random upstater have that job long-term.  Tish James would almost certainly have right of first refusal, regardless of what Hochul does.  Even if James didn't run for whatever reason, the nomination would just go to some other NYC politician rather than Hochul.

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

Hochul would run, and I say a crowd of probably 5-10 candidates as well.

Alessandra Biaggi, Tish James, Jamaal Bowman, Ritchie Torres, Byron Brown, Tim Kennedy, Sean Patrick Maloney, Max Rose, AOC, Chuck Schumer, Hillary, Lindsey Boylan, all have a reason why running for Governor makes sense; on top of NY being a pretty attractive state right now for a post-COVID recovery and the inevitable legalization of sports gambling and marijuana.

My leading bet right now:

No Cuomo resignation, but by May he announces he will not be running in 2022.

Byron Brown wins the primary, given the challenge he's facing right now from DSA and Working Families-endorsed India Walton (who will go on to become Mayor of Buffalo), and Brown goes on to face Janice Dean in the general. Kathy Hochul remains Lieutenant Governor, and Tish James remains NY AG but will face a challenge from a progressive.

Brown, Hochul, and James all go on to win and develop post-COVID NY similarly to how Brown did Buffalo post-recession; likely with help of NYC Mayor Andrew Yang.

I don't think it would be that many people. Why Brown?

Hochul can't run for governor and then be chosen as Lt. Governor. The primaries are separate.

I don't think it'll be that many people that I listed as well, but just pick about 5 of them for starters.

Most Buffalo mayoral races are pretty dead and boring. India Walton, on top of being endorsed by WFP and the DSA, is gaining a good amount of social media traction from my on-the-ground following of the race. By far the strongest opponent Brown has had to face yet in his years of campaigning.

If Cuomo steps aside, Brown has massive networking resources with Dems all across the state, all the way to the DNC even.

From Brown's perspective, you avoid the June primary loss and run for the higher office. He's only been Mayor of Buffalo for 15 years, and unlike Tish James (who I see as having a reverse-Kathy Hochul problem; her perceived role in the nursing home scandal/COVID shutdowns is not very positive here in WNY), I think he'll be the best balance between WNY/Upstate/NYC voters.

As for Hochul, I see her running or flirting with the idea, but likely dropping out before the primary as well. I don't see her doing well outside of Western/Upstate NY.

social media is not a good indicator of election outcomes

[Duke of York]

Hochul would be toast in the primary if she sought a full term as Governor, the NY Democratic Party is not gonna let a random upstater have that job long-term.  Tish James would almost certainly have right of first refusal, regardless of what Hochul does.  Even if James didn't run for whatever reason, the nomination would just go to some other NYC politician rather than Hochul.

I don't think shed be toast if sought a full term. James probably wouldnt run against her. If Hochul didn't;'t run James would be the frontrunner.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Cuomo journalist now expecting resignation.

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366813698640252935?s=19