NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[wbrocks67]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

More seems like polling is flawed in safe states, just like Washington state, Oklahoma and - to a lesser extent - South Carolina. Zeldin doesn't strike me as strong opponent since he's way out of the New York mainstream, having voted to overturn the 2020 election and on right end of the political spectrum on all major issues. I'd be really surprised with a margin smaller than 15%.

Yeah, for all the handwringing about NY and 'crime' and all that stuff - at the same time, Zeldin is no moderate character. He opposes abortion rights and is a 2020 election denier.

I don't imagine Trump reminding people 3 weeks to go of his endorsement helps him either.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We must also remember that Zeldin is Jewish, and Jews are (much to the consternation of certain Dem politicians) a major voting block.

[Calthrina950]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

More seems like polling is flawed in safe states, just like Washington state, Oklahoma and - to a lesser extent - South Carolina. Zeldin doesn't strike me as strong opponent since he's way out of the New York mainstream, having voted to overturn the 2020 election and on right end of the political spectrum on all major issues. I'd be really surprised with a margin smaller than 15%.

Yeah, for all the handwringing about NY and 'crime' and all that stuff - at the same time, Zeldin is no moderate character. He opposes abortion rights and is a 2020 election denier.

I don't imagine Trump reminding people 3 weeks to go of his endorsement helps him either.

Zeldin has said he won't change New York's abortion laws and wouldn't have the authority to do so. And yes, he is an election denier, but it's obvious to me that many voters are concerned more about the economy and crime at this point than January 6th.

[Ferguson97]

If Zeldin wins I will leave the forum for a year.

[Duke of York]

If Zeldin wins I will leave the forum for a year.

I think there is a decent possibility with how close the polling is.

[Orwell]

If Zeldin wins I will leave the forum for a year.

I think there is a decent possibility with how close the polling is.

I don't think Zeldin will win but he does have like a 5% chance of winning I guess, so it's a decent bet to make since he's unlikely to be wrong

[If my soul was made of stone]

We must also remember that Zeldin is Jewish, and Jews are (much to the consternation of certain Dem politicians) a major voting block.

And not all New York Jews are Haredim, and not literally 100% of Haredim vote as a bloc.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We must also remember that Zeldin is Jewish, and Jews are (much to the consternation of certain Dem politicians) a major voting block.

And not all New York Jews are Haredim, and not literally 100% of Haredim vote as a bloc.

Yes, but Jewish people in general make up a decent chunk of votes and even if Zeldin only takes 2-4% more than usual it would still help.

[Duke of York]

If Zeldin wins I will leave the forum for a year.

I think there is a decent possibility with how close the polling is.

I don't think Zeldin will win but he does have like a 5% chance of winning I guess, so it's a decent bet to make since he's unlikely to be wrong

i hope he doesn't. The idea of a Governor Zeldin terrifies me.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

[Roll Roons]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

[Babeuf]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

This, except in Oregon there seems to be a lot more commotion around the governors race. In NY I haven’t seen much action from either side though Zeldin def been getting headlines.

[KaiserDave]

There is no massive "Zeldin" momentum. Some low quality polls from Trafalgar, McLaughlin & Associates, and Schoen Cooperman and everyone's freaking out. All incredibly contrived. The only relevant data-point is the Siena poll showing a tightening....to an 11 point gap. Hochul will win, she will win by double digits. Enough. It's possible that Zeldin matches or over-performs Astorino 2014. Zeldin has definitely improved his standing since last month. Zeldin is doing well. But for Pete's sake if someone says "Zeldin might win" again...

Atlas man...

[Ferguson97]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Serious people aren't discussing the possibility of a Zeldin win.

[Aurelius]

When was the last time an upstate Dem ran against a downstate Pub for governor? I think that scrambles the dynamics a bit. Traditionally the Pub demagogues against NYC and to a lesser extent the Dem upholds themselves as the defender of NYC against upstate troglodytes. That can't work with these candidates.

[wbrocks67]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

Doesn't New York rank like 27th in crime nationwide? Not just that, but Hochul isn't someone who I imagine "defund the police" works on.

[Orwell]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Kind of like Oregon, I think there's an element of party fatigue at play just because Democrats have controlled the governorship for 15 years now. It also looks like the GOP messaging on crime/defund the police is resonating.

Doesn't New York rank like 27th in crime nationwide? Not just that, but Hochul isn't someone who I imagine "defund the police" works on.

It doesn't matter how high crime really is, everyone who runs on "crime and drugs", is just using it as a dog whistle.

[NYDem]

When was the last time an upstate Dem ran against a downstate Pub for governor? I think that scrambles the dynamics a bit. Traditionally the Pub demagogues against NYC and to a lesser extent the Dem upholds themselves as the defender of NYC against upstate troglodytes. That can't work with these candidates.

1946. The Democrat was Buffalo politician James M. Mead, running against Thomas Dewey. Dewey won 57-43.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I must say I'm surprised we are talking about a Zeldin win as a possibility.

Has Hochul run a lazy or bad campaign?

Serious people aren't discussing the possibility of a Zeldin win.

I think Hochul will do relatively poorly for a Dem but Zeldin is going to struggle to win. Some of these recent polls are a bit flawed because of how they sample, and Hochul only winning NYC by 20-30% makes now sense despite concerns about crime and homelessness.

In order words, even in the worst scenario, NYC should net Hochul ~800k votes and Zeldin is going to struggle to cancel that out with upstate and Long Island, both of which are traditionally swingy and have some strong Dem bastions within them

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm not enthusiastic about Hochul but I'm still voting for her (and Democrats straight down the ballot).

[Calthrina950]

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm not enthusiastic about Hochul but I'm still voting for her (and Democrats straight down the ballot).

Given that Democrats aren't enthused about Hochul and she is not particularly popular, why did she win the primary so easily? Was it because her opposition was worse?

[Sir Mohamed]

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm not enthusiastic about Hochul but I'm still voting for her (and Democrats straight down the ballot).

Given that Democrats aren't enthused about Hochul and she is not particularly popular, why did she win the primary so easily? Was it because her opposition was worse?

More seems like NY polling - along with other safe states - is just broken this year. Hochul is neither a supertitan creating strong enthusiasm neither is she the opposite. She'll be fine on election day. And a strong improvement over her previous 3-Dem predecessors.

[President Johnson]

It’s not a real possibility. Hochul will win easily but, at least in my circles (NYC liberals mostly) there is no enthusiasm for her and people generally don’t think highly of her. I imagine almost all will still vote for her though.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm not enthusiastic about Hochul but I'm still voting for her (and Democrats straight down the ballot).

May I ask what's your explanation why some apparently not that thrilled about Hochul?

To me it seems that she has done a good job including a few legislative wins during her short period of time in the driver's seat. She's also the first woman as governor and ideologically pretty much in the mainstream of the party, neither a DINO nor far-left. Hochul generally strikes me as a likeable personal capable of connecting with average people. In my opinion, she deserves a strong mandate.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

May I ask what's your explanation why some apparently not that thrilled about Hochul?

To me it seems that she has done a good job including a few legislative wins during her short period of time in the driver's seat. She's also the first woman as governor and ideologically pretty much in the mainstream of the party, neither a DINO nor far-left. Hochul generally strikes me as a likeable personal capable of connecting with average people. In my opinion, she deserves a strong mandate.

I don't dislike her or anything. I'm just more neutral on her. She's very generic.

To be honest, the NY Democratic Party doesn't really have any standout or charismatic politicians right now (except for AOC but AOC could never get elected statewide).