NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

https://mobile.twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1550294883126099971

The attacker was probably a right winger who doesn't like that Zeldin voted to protect the right of gay marriage.

I doubt it. It was probably a lunatic of unclear political determination.

Also. I'm surprised by that particular vote from Zeldin. It's he's trying to get the Conservative Party to strip him of their ballot line.

I doubt that will happen.  The Conservative Party has been in the Patronage Mix since the 1960s, and they've endorsed more than one Republican that hasn't checked all of the boxes.  Zeldin's a conservative Republican by NY standards, and he'll get them the most votes on their ballot line.

[Duke of York]

Given the latest polls I think it’s very plausible Hochul gets close to 60 percent the big question is does she do better than Cuomo upstate and break the 60 percent mark? I think it’s possible.

[Spectator]

Better than him upstate, but worse in Long Island and Staten Island.

[Sir Mohamed]

Better than him upstate, but worse in Long Island and Staten Island.

Italian-Americans that mainly voted for Cuomo due to his heritage but not for an Upstate woman with Irish roots? And Zeldin running on home turf in Long Island?

[Duke of York]

Better than him upstate, but worse in Long Island and Staten Island.

Perhaps in Suffolk since that is where Zeldin is from. Nassau I think Hochul at least  equals 2018.

[President Johnson]

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

[Duke of York]

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

Agreed. I thought it would be a much more crowded primary and much closer than it was.

[warandwar]

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

Agreed. I thought it would be a much more crowded primary and much closer than it was.

I was locked in a room with Tish James on Valentine's Day (long story) and she made it very clear that Cuomo's allies forced her out of the race. I don't think this was an "underestimation" of Hochul, just Cuomo's long revenge.

[President Johnson]

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

Agreed. I thought it would be a much more crowded primary and much closer than it was.

I was locked in a room with Tish James on Valentine's Day (long story) and she made it very clear that Cuomo's allies forced her out of the race. I don't think this was an "underestimation" of Hochul, just Cuomo's long revenge.

I don't know, how are Cuomo allies supposed to "push her out"? And why in favor of Hochul, who was not very liked by him either (already wanted to dump her from the ticket in 2018). James withdrew because she didn't gain traction and her candidacy seemed unnecessary against a scandal-free governor (and first woman chief executive) who just took over the positions and was about clean things up. Unlike Williams and Suozzi, she didn't even oppose Hochul for ideological reasons.

Hochul played her cards very wisely right after taking office, not just by managing to raise a ton of money, which James failed at. She also established many personal relations into the state legislature, which allowed her to get things done quickly. She also built a solid network of connections all over state, which she crisscrossed during her time as lt. governor (as such, she was barely in Albany and just out meeting a lot of people and leaders from all walks of life, promoting the government's agenda).

[warandwar]

Today marks exactly one year of Kathy Hochul as governor. She was actually not supposed to have it that easy, especially in the primary. Actually a pattern of her career, she was constantly underestimated.

Agreed. I thought it would be a much more crowded primary and much closer than it was.

I was locked in a room with Tish James on Valentine's Day (long story) and she made it very clear that Cuomo's allies forced her out of the race. I don't think this was an "underestimation" of Hochul, just Cuomo's long revenge.

I don't know, how are Cuomo allies supposed to "push her out"? And why in favor of Hochul, who was not very liked by him either (already wanted to dump her from the ticket in 2018). James withdrew because she didn't gain traction and her candidacy seemed unnecessary against a scandal-free governor (and first woman chief executive) who just took over the positions and was about clean things up. Unlike Williams and Suozzi, she didn't even oppose Hochul for ideological reasons.

Hochul played her cards very wisely right after taking office, not just by managing to raise a ton of money, which James failed at. She also established many personal relations into the state legislature, which allowed her to get things done quickly. She also built a solid network of connections all over state, which she crisscrossed during her time as lt. governor (as such, she was barely in Albany and just out meeting a lot of people and leaders from all walks of life, promoting the government's agenda).

Tish James took a clear ideological stance to Hochul's left. If you don't get how Cuomo's allies can push someone out, you don't understand New York politics. As if it's a coincidence that Hochul raised tons but James struggled. As if there wasn't a massive whisper campaign within Albany against James, as if Cuomo's allies hadn't started spending $$$ on ad campaigns across New York throwing mud in James' face.

[Kleine Scheiße]

Its over

[Calthrina950]

Its over

Obviously, but for reasons I've outlined elsewhere, I wouldn't be surprised if Zeldin cracked the 40% mark.

[President Johnson]

Its over

Over? It has never begun.

[cinyc]

Its over

Over? It has never begun.

It began, but hasn’t been going well for Zeldin. At least he has ads up now, albeit with much less frequency than Hochul’s drivel that makes me want to vote Zeldin more.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1581476555343114240?cxt=HHwWgMCt3Ymjx...
Could Zeldin pull this one off?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1581476555343114240?cxt=HHwWgMCt3Ymjx...
Could Zeldin pull this one off?

I don't think so, but I think he has a real shot at coming within single digits, if the polls are anywhere close to accurate.

[Ferguson97]

Could Zeldin pull this one off?

No. This would be a bigger upset than Democrats winning in Florida or Texas.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

LOL, Lee Zeldin is not winning anything.

Unless most NYC voters stay home or NYC suddenly turns into Wyoming - neither of which are going to happen - Hochul is winning.

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1581476555343114240?cxt=HHwWgMCt3Ymjx...
Could Zeldin pull this one off?

I doubt it, but after what we saw in New Jersey in 2021,  I wouldn't say that it is impossible. I think if Zeldin is able to capture what is left of the Giuliani coalition meaning not getting totally destroyed in 3 of the 5 Burroughs, keeping Queens semi-competitive and killing Hochul in Richmond, while killing it out on Long Island. If he is successful in that (Big IF) he could have a chance upstate, but turnout matters a lot, and some of those r-leaning groups in Upstate don't turnout in midterms as well as Presidential elections. Hochul by 6-7 seems like a fair bet, but if Zeldin can get great numbers in the downstate region he can make it a race, but I don't know if his appeal will translate into anything.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a NYer I think Hochul will win but by a relatively disappointing margin.

Firstly, the enthusiasm in NYC is overall bad, at least relative to 2018 and 2020. I could def see a scenario similar to NJ-Gov 2021 where Essex and Hudson counties just had really really bad turnout making things very close except now it's places like the Bronx. I have not seen a proactive effort on Hochul's part to really reach out to a lot of the city's Black and Hispanic communities either,

Secondly, Zeldin seems to be making genuine inroads into many of the city's Asian, Jewish, and other ethnic white communities. These groups are all overall unhappy with the current state government for a variety of reasons, and I could def see Zeldin coming unexpectedly close in a district like NY-06 (heavily Asian parts of Queens).

Thirdly, Zeldin def has Staten and Long Island appeal due to being Italian, being a Congressman from NY-01, and the very unique politics of these regions. Cuomo for instance was able to rack up some very impressive margins in these communities even outright winning Staten Island which Hochul will not be able to do.

Finally, I expect Hochul to gain some default ground upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance, especially around Albany. It won't be anything super significant though and she still underperforms Biden upstate in most places due to the nature of the year.

Frankly, NYC and the state overall has a lot of problems right now that people are unhappy about, and when people are unhappy, they tend to blame the party in charge of state politics which in this case is Dems.

Schumer should easily win re-election but with a significant erosion of crossover support.

I think Likely D for Gov is appropriate. At the end of the day even in the worst case, Manhattan should net Hochul at least 300k votes, Brooklyn at least another 300k, and the Bronx 125k. Finding the votes to cancel out these margins is going to be very hard for Zeldin. Even without the 4 major Dem vote nets (Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens), Biden still wins the state overall by about 6. I think the state should be blue enough for Hochul to hold but Zeldin has a theoretical path. Hochul + 12-15 is what I'm expecting right now.

[Calthrina950]

As a NYer I think Hochul will win but by a relatively disappointing margin.

Firstly, the enthusiasm in NYC is overall bad, at least relative to 2018 and 2020. I could def see a scenario similar to NJ-Gov 2021 where Essex and Hudson counties just had really really bad turnout making things very close except now it's places like the Bronx. I have not seen a proactive effort on Hochul's part to really reach out to a lot of the city's Black and Hispanic communities either,

Secondly, Zeldin seems to be making genuine inroads into many of the city's Asian, Jewish, and other ethnic white communities. These groups are all overall unhappy with the current state government for a variety of reasons, and I could def see Zeldin coming unexpectedly close in a district like NY-06 (heavily Asian parts of Queens).

Thirdly, Zeldin def has Staten and Long Island appeal due to being Italian, being a Congressman from NY-01, and the very unique politics of these regions. Cuomo for instance was able to rack up some very impressive margins in these communities even outright winning Staten Island which Hochul will not be able to do.

Finally, I expect Hochul to gain some default ground upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance, especially around Albany. It won't be anything super significant though and she still underperforms Biden upstate in most places due to the nature of the year.

Frankly, NYC and the state overall has a lot of problems right now that people are unhappy about, and when people are unhappy, they tend to blame the party in charge of state politics which in this case is Dems.

Schumer should easily win re-election but with a significant erosion of crossover support.

I think Likely D for Gov is appropriate. At the end of the day even in the worst case, Manhattan should net Hochul at least 300k votes, Brooklyn at least another 300k, and the Bronx 125k. Finding the votes to cancel out these margins is going to be very hard for Zeldin. Even without the 4 major Dem vote nets (Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens), Biden still wins the state overall by about 6. I think the state should be blue enough for Hochul to hold but Zeldin has a theoretical path. Hochul + 12-15 is what I'm expecting right now.

Since you are a New York resident, I trust your judgment. Do you think a result of 56-44%, in line with the most recent polls that have had Zeldin in the mid forties, is reasonable?

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a NYer I think Hochul will win but by a relatively disappointing margin.

Firstly, the enthusiasm in NYC is overall bad, at least relative to 2018 and 2020. I could def see a scenario similar to NJ-Gov 2021 where Essex and Hudson counties just had really really bad turnout making things very close except now it's places like the Bronx. I have not seen a proactive effort on Hochul's part to really reach out to a lot of the city's Black and Hispanic communities either,

Secondly, Zeldin seems to be making genuine inroads into many of the city's Asian, Jewish, and other ethnic white communities. These groups are all overall unhappy with the current state government for a variety of reasons, and I could def see Zeldin coming unexpectedly close in a district like NY-06 (heavily Asian parts of Queens).

Thirdly, Zeldin def has Staten and Long Island appeal due to being Italian, being a Congressman from NY-01, and the very unique politics of these regions. Cuomo for instance was able to rack up some very impressive margins in these communities even outright winning Staten Island which Hochul will not be able to do.

Finally, I expect Hochul to gain some default ground upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance, especially around Albany. It won't be anything super significant though and she still underperforms Biden upstate in most places due to the nature of the year.

Frankly, NYC and the state overall has a lot of problems right now that people are unhappy about, and when people are unhappy, they tend to blame the party in charge of state politics which in this case is Dems.

Schumer should easily win re-election but with a significant erosion of crossover support.

I think Likely D for Gov is appropriate. At the end of the day even in the worst case, Manhattan should net Hochul at least 300k votes, Brooklyn at least another 300k, and the Bronx 125k. Finding the votes to cancel out these margins is going to be very hard for Zeldin. Even without the 4 major Dem vote nets (Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens), Biden still wins the state overall by about 6. I think the state should be blue enough for Hochul to hold but Zeldin has a theoretical path. Hochul + 12-15 is what I'm expecting right now.

Since you are a New York resident, I trust your judgment. Do you think a result of 56-44%, in line with the most recent polls that have had Zeldin in the mid forties, is reasonable?

Mhm, I would be pretty shocked if Zeldin started going above ~46/47% though.

[NYDem]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

[Calthrina950]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

She's doing worse than I initially thought she would as well, although I now understand why, and Zeldin has been running a strong campaign.

[President Johnson]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

More seems like polling is flawed in safe states, just like Washington state, Oklahoma and - to a lesser extent - South Carolina. Zeldin doesn't strike me as strong opponent since he's way out of the New York mainstream, having voted to overturn the 2020 election and on right end of the political spectrum on all major issues. I'd be really surprised with a margin smaller than 15%.