NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates
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Author Topic: NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates  (Read 110800 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1350 on: April 02, 2022, 11:43:42 AM »

This race can be one of the closest Gov race in NY History, I expect Hochul to win but it won't be a landslide, I would be shocked if Hochul does lose like we were all shocked I'm an R wave Quinn lost but in an R plus 5 Environment IL, NY or Cali can flip Newsom had such high Approvals during Recall now they are 47%

If the recall were held today Newsom would not have 51 to avoid defeat
Neither Hochul or Newsom is losing.

Newsom is not losing, but Hochul could lose the general to Cuomo. They are more registered Dems than Republicans and Pataki won in 1994, 1998 and 2002 because of crossover voters.

The NYGOP brand is tainted with Trump, corruption, etc
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1351 on: April 02, 2022, 11:58:57 AM »

This race can be one of the closest Gov race in NY History, I expect Hochul to win but it won't be a landslide, I would be shocked if Hochul does lose like we were all shocked I'm an R wave Quinn lost but in an R plus 5 Environment IL, NY or Cali can flip Newsom had such high Approvals during Recall now they are 47%

If the recall were held today Newsom would not have 51 to avoid defeat
Neither Hochul or Newsom is losing.

Newsom is not losing, but Hochul could lose the general to Cuomo. They are more registered Dems than Republicans and Pataki won in 1994, 1998 and 2002 because of crossover voters.

The NYGOP brand is tainted with Trump, corruption, etc

how would Hochul lose to Cuomo in the general? he's not winning as an independent and there is no way he'd run as a Republican.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1352 on: April 03, 2022, 04:33:09 AM »

This race can be one of the closest Gov race in NY History, I expect Hochul to win but it won't be a landslide, I would be shocked if Hochul does lose like we were all shocked I'm an R wave Quinn lost but in an R plus 5 Environment IL, NY or Cali can flip Newsom had such high Approvals during Recall now they are 47%

If the recall were held today Newsom would not have 51 to avoid defeat
Neither Hochul or Newsom is losing.

Newsom is not losing, but Hochul could lose the general to Cuomo. They are more registered Dems than Republicans and Pataki won in 1994, 1998 and 2002 because of crossover voters.

The NYGOP brand is tainted with Trump, corruption, etc

how would Hochul lose to Cuomo in the general? he's not winning as an independent and there is no way he'd run as a Republican.

He probably means Cuomo running third party/indy on purpose to take enough votes from Hochul so that Zeldin ends up winning with a weak plurality. However, I don't see what such a move gets him, since Zeldin would certainly do everything in his power to undo Cuomo's policies. And after causing an unnecessary Democratic loss, all the bridges are burn down anyway. So he wouldn't have a shot to run as the Democratic candidate in 2026 either.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1353 on: April 03, 2022, 03:54:00 PM »

How does a NYGOP win in 2022, yes even in a Biden midterm?

NYGOP has to win 30%+ of the NYC vote, the suburbs and Upstate is not enough. Pataki made inroads in NYC as governor, that's how he won reelection in 2002.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1354 on: April 04, 2022, 09:09:44 AM »

How does a NYGOP win in 2022, yes even in a Biden midterm?

NYGOP has to win 30%+ of the NYC vote, the suburbs and Upstate is not enough. Pataki made inroads in NYC as governor, that's how he won reelection in 2002.

They don't.
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Respect and Compassion
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« Reply #1355 on: April 04, 2022, 09:46:36 AM »

If Youngkin was able to get ~50.5% over Trump's 44% in Virginia (6.5% increase), I think the NY GOP candidate can get 44-45% over Trump's ~37.7% (close to an 8% increase). Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx swung right in 2020. So did Manhattan, albeit marginally. Staten Island swung a tiny bit left. Upstate and the suburbs swung left by more. The issue is, Hochul isn't particularly strong Upstate and in the suburbs, and I can see the parts of NYC that swung right in 2020 swinging right even more in 2022. I wouldn't think it would be enough for the Republican candidate to get to the high 40s, but the mid 40s seems like a reasonable cap. There is a certain amount of moderate nonwhite 2020-Democrat (particularly hispanics and asians) and moderate white 2020-Democrat voters who could hypothetically be swayed to a GOP candidate, in contrast to black voters and white liberals.

I haven't done a thorough analysis, but something about New York feels like the Democratic voters have a bit more of the moderate nonwhite and moderate whites than Virginia, which could cause a larger rightward swing than seen in 2021 Virginia. My instincts tell me the swing will be more like what was seen in 2021 New Jersey (a neighboring state).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1356 on: April 07, 2022, 08:52:17 AM »

Does Adams secretly back Cuomo returning to office? Possible he and Hochul will continue to long-time feud between NY govs and NYC mayors?

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Duke of York
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« Reply #1357 on: April 07, 2022, 10:05:42 AM »

Does Adams secretly back Cuomo returning to office? Possible he and Hochul will continue to long-time feud between NY govs and NYC mayors?


The deadline to file in the Democratic primary has passed. I doubt Cuomo runs as an independent.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1358 on: April 07, 2022, 10:08:49 AM »

Does Adams secretly back Cuomo returning to office? Possible he and Hochul will continue to long-time feud between NY govs and NYC mayors?


The deadline to file in the Democratic primary has passed. I doubt Cuomo runs as an independent.

Good to know.

I don't think he runs as Indy either, because there's nothing he would gain from it. Even if Hochul then loses the GE due to ticket splitting, Cuomo would be even more hated among Dems. That said, I don't even think a 3rd party bid would gain much steam anyway. Sure, he has a ton of cash on the bank, but money alone doesn't elect anyone.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #1359 on: April 12, 2022, 08:36:39 AM »

I don't know how much this will affect the main race, but this took a turn.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ny-lt-gov-brian-benjamin-arrested-for-alleged-campaign-finance-fraud-scheme-sources/3619365/
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bronz4141
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« Reply #1360 on: April 12, 2022, 08:42:02 AM »

New York politicians are so corrupt, it is sad. But it is still a state to do business and have fun.

Zeldin still can't win. For some reason, NYGOP are cursed post-Pataki. I don't know why.

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1361 on: April 12, 2022, 08:55:47 AM »

New York politicians are so corrupt, it is sad. But it is still a state to do business and have fun.

Zeldin still can't win. For some reason, NYGOP are cursed post-Pataki. I don't know why.



For the same reason Dems now fail to win governorships in states they once did, like MO or IA. Polarization and many of these races get nationalized to a huge extent, making it almost impossible for the minor party to pull it off. Just a few states keep being immune to that, at least to a certain extent (see MA, VT or KY). But even there it's very likely just a matter of time or already takes extremely bad opponents.

That said, I think Benjamin will be out in a matter of days and absolutely dropped from the ticket. The optics of this is just too bad, even if he gets cleared in the aftermath.
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leecannon
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« Reply #1362 on: April 12, 2022, 09:11:01 AM »

Well Brian Benjamin has been indicted

#ShouldveBeenJumanee
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1363 on: April 12, 2022, 09:13:38 AM »

Well Brian Benjamin has been indicted

#ShouldveBeenJumanee

The lockdown lunatic? Nah.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1364 on: April 12, 2022, 10:10:42 AM »

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1365 on: April 12, 2022, 12:19:51 PM »

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

She would get to appoint somebody new, but short of her appointing somebody else who's already qualified for the primary ballot (i.e., Ana Maria Archila, a progressive endorsed by AOC who's Benjamin's only primary challenger) or short of him winning the nomination in the primary & then resigning so that the state party's executive committee can fill the resultant vacancy in the nomination with Hochul's selection, there's no way for her nominee to be the Lt. Gov Democratic nominee.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1366 on: April 12, 2022, 12:23:45 PM »

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

She would get to appoint somebody new, but short of her appointing somebody else who's already qualified for the primary ballot (i.e., Ana Maria Archila, a progressive endorsed by AOC who's Benjamin's only primary challenger) or short of him winning the nomination in the primary & then resigning so that the state party's executive committee can fill the resultant vacancy in the nomination with Hochul's selection, there's no way for her nominee to be the Lt. Gov Democratic nominee.

New York ballot laws are so messed up. This needs to be changed.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1367 on: April 12, 2022, 12:58:17 PM »

if Benjamin resigns does Hochul get to appoint someone new and that person goes on the primary ballot?

She would get to appoint somebody new, but short of her appointing somebody else who's already qualified for the primary ballot (i.e., Ana Maria Archila, a progressive endorsed by AOC who's Benjamin's only primary challenger) or short of him winning the nomination in the primary & then resigning so that the state party's executive committee can fill the resultant vacancy in the nomination with Hochul's selection, there's no way for her nominee to be the Lt. Gov Democratic nominee.

There's also Diana Reyna, who's apparently running with Suozzi. I guess she's qualified for the ballot as well.

Anyway, Benjamin needs to resign and drop out of the race as soon as possible. He's a liabilty for Hochul, even if he gets cleared at some point.
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leecannon
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« Reply #1368 on: April 12, 2022, 04:31:36 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2022, 04:38:49 PM by Open Border Advocate (Any/All) »

According to NYT Benjamin is resigning

Who is replacing him? Any idea? Probably another black politician from New York, but there’s no shortage of those

Edit; here’s the CNN article

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/12/politics/brian-benjamin-new-york/index.html
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bronz4141
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« Reply #1369 on: April 12, 2022, 04:57:12 PM »

If Zeldin does win, he would have a frosty relationship with Black New Yorkers. He's a Long Island politician with ties to Fox News and cops. If there is a police brutality case in NY, Gov. Zeldin would probably either defend it, or say nothing and earn the wrath of the Black community.

So Zeldin isn't winning. 2002 was 20 years ago and Pataki was riding off post-9/11 gains for the GOP. The post-Mario NYDP was in shambles because Cuomo did not build up a successor......

Democrats will keep the seat, but it will be an interesting race.

The scumbag Giuliani son ain't winning either.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1370 on: April 12, 2022, 04:58:28 PM »

Was this man not vetted?
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1371 on: April 12, 2022, 05:01:47 PM »

According to NYT Benjamin is resigning

Who is replacing him? Any idea? Probably another black politician from New York, but there’s no shortage of those

Edit; here’s the CNN article

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/12/politics/brian-benjamin-new-york/index.html

The question is though well they be able to get on the ballot?
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1372 on: April 12, 2022, 05:20:52 PM »


Benjamin was picked because he's the kind of downstate pol who knows exactly how to motivate all of the right people. It wasn't in anyone's interest to ask too many questions.

This. He's a Black Downstate New Yorker, regional balance, ideological balance (he's to Hochul's left, supported defund police, etc.)

Hochul will pick a Latina/Black person. No white males. No white women. She needs to pick someone who can be LG and also who can be president should anything happen to Hochul or Senate Maj Ldr. Cousins.



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20RP12
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« Reply #1373 on: April 12, 2022, 05:30:03 PM »

Lt. Governor Cuomo incoming!!!
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jfern
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« Reply #1374 on: April 12, 2022, 05:52:40 PM »

Have him share a prison cell with Cuomo and the corpses of Bruno and Silver.
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